Primarily for general aviation discussion, but other aviation topics are also welcome.
#1755839
This is the one question I really didn’t want to ask, but with virtually most businesses, (apart from key ones) shut, a lot are not going to survive.

All flying schools are, (rightly), closed now, and most if not all students are dependent on their employment/businesses for income. When all the schools reopen, (that is the ones that don’t go bust), will they have any students left who have the financial means to carry on learning to fly?

That aside, if this runs a long course, most instructors will also, (alongside students/PPLs, be ‘out of check’
Then there are those that want to progress to commercial level, or part way through it already - will there be any airline industry left to even apply to, let alone be taken on by?

I am sorry if this post sounds negative, but what are other people’s opinion on what might happen?
#1755842
Some of this will be down to landowners whether they’ll agree to waive land/warehouse rental fees for FBOs in such extraordinary times.

Many FBOs will probably furlough their staff for now.

Employed pilots such as instructors may seek jobs in GA community service organisations such as the air ambulance, if the demand is there.

A few FBOs will keep going as they'll need to service these types of aircraft, as well as those being flown in infrastructure-critical tasks like offshore energy/oil rig inspections.
#1755844
We had similar questions during the foot and mouth crises, the economic downturn in the late naughties and now.

It will bounce back. Whether it will be to the pre-COVID levels, who knows.
Paul_Sengupta, white light, JAFO and 6 others liked this
#1755852
Aviation has taken a lot of hits in the last 20 years but is still strong. I'd expect this to have a 911 level hit downstream, less airlines, probably less airports. We'll lose some of those looking to follow the career pilot path, it's going to be closed for a few years. However, we're nothing if not bloody minded and resilient.
#1755857
A good opportunity would be voiding VAT on fuel, as they do in Poland if I am correct.

This would drive many more pilots to fly, giving oxygen to FBOs, and would make training cheaper encouraging students to carry on.

I have no numbers to quote, but the amount of AvGas sold yearly and the amount of taxes for the Gov must be ridiculous in the big scheme of things. An almost impact-zero measure with, possibly, a good return.

I may be wrong, please correct me in case
#1755870
Its the same old conundrum that has been around for a while now. A fully laden B737 on its way to Benidorm full of holiday makers who all get the "benefit " of low Avtur duties, but try flying your own Avgas powerd SEP to Le-touquet for a spot of lunch you will pay the exorbitant tax/duty on your fuel for the same principal of "Leisure" flying.
#1755873
all get the "benefit " of low Avtur duties,


They still have to pay APD though, which goes up with distance.
#1755876
Dont dispute that, and I have paid literally hundreds if not a few thousand in APD, but it's really not relevant to VAT on AVGAS.

PS: I complained to my local MP many years ago about the unjustified APD I was paying out, the reply was the completly expected government line on the what/why's/hows it is imposed.
#1755877
FlarePath wrote:Its the same old conundrum that has been around for a while now. A fully laden B737 on its way to Benidorm full of holiday makers who all get the "benefit " of low Avtur duties, but try flying your own Avgas powerd SEP to Le-touquet for a spot of lunch you will pay the exorbitant tax/duty on your fuel for the same principal of "Leisure" flying.

Drawback? :scratch:
#1755882
GrahamB wrote:
FlarePath wrote:Its the same old conundrum that has been around for a while now. A fully laden B737 on its way to Benidorm full of holiday makers who all get the "benefit " of low Avtur duties, but try flying your own Avgas powerd SEP to Le-touquet for a spot of lunch you will pay the exorbitant tax/duty on your fuel for the same principal of "Leisure" flying.

Drawback? :scratch:


I will give you just that one :D

But if you fly any where in UK just for fun the argument still stands, the amount the HMRC collect from AVGAS duty I expect doesnt even come close to a problem if it wasn't there.
#1755890
As part of the EU, the U.K. was duty bound (see what I did there?) to impose fuel duty on Avgas.

Now we are out, in theory the U.K. is free to remove that obligation.

Somehow, given the state the U.K. plc finances will be in post Covid-19, I can’t see that happening, however small an amount is collected annually.
#1755892
James Chan wrote:
all get the "benefit " of low Avtur duties,


They still have to pay APD though, which goes up with distance.


It hasn't gone unnoticed that Shapps couldn't even get a temporary suspension of APD passed to help the airports.
#1755900
Definitely not. Some schools might close, but it’s just an opportunity for another to take its place. If there’s a demand a flight school will open. Could be a good thing for students with opportunities to modernise training aircraft in U.K. schools.