[Freeflight]

Boeing's post-pandemic revised twenty year demand forecast:

[G-BLEW]

The CAE data is due out soon I believe.

Ian

[Overflight]

Airbus' take: 'Flight operations services, such as pilot training and flight-planning solutions, will account for a $1.4 trillion cumulative spend over 20 years. Airbus also estimates there is a need for 550,000 new pilots in the next 20 years to cope with fleet growth.'

[G-JWTP]

Airbus' take: 'Flight operations services, such as pilot training and flight-planning solutions, will account for a $1.4 trillion cumulative spend over 20 years. Airbus also estimates there is a need for 550,000 new pilots in the next 20 years to cope with fleet growth.'

From what baseline?
June 2019 or June 2020

Both Boeing and Airbus are hardly going to say the industry is doomed so we all would be better off going by train.

G-JWTP

[Overflight]

Eurocontrol Commercial Aviation Traffic Forecast 2020-2024

• Scenario 1 – Vaccine Summer 2021 - Vaccine widely made available for travellers (or end of pandemic) by Summer 2021, with traffic only returning to 2019 levels by 2024.

• Scenario 2 – Vaccine Summer 2022 - Vaccine widely made available for travellers (or end of pandemic) by Summer 2022, with traffic only returning to 2019 levels by 2026.

• Scenario 3 – Vaccine not effective - Lingering infection and low passenger confidence, with traffic only returning to 2019 levels by 2029.

All scenarios take into consideration not only the likelihood of a vaccine, but also the strength of the second wave of COVID-19, public health and social distancing measures, financial impacts, possible difference in state aid and potential reductions in demand from both the business and leisure sectors. Further risks include the impact of Brexit, airspace and network changes and the fragility of the economic recovery.

[Flintstone]

PPPS I have a great deal of sympathy with @Flintstone's view that TRs should not be paid for by the pilot. Ironically, I think the practice is probably more rife in the bizjet world than it is in the airline world.

Ian

With respect to the honourable gentleman, I disagree.

It's the case among those on the inside (of bizjets) that most will not pay for a rating, I cannot think of any colleagues who have done so (I nearly wrote 'friends' but refuse to give certain people an opening here ). A new airframe will come with 3-4 'free' ratings and with the exception of some bottom-feeding companies are used to train crew transferring from the 'old' aircraft or new pilots. In fact only last week the company was seeking crew for a new G650 and stipulated 'type rating provided to suitable candidates'. Those are about $60,000-worth, each.

Having conducted several hundred interviews and read thousands of CVs over the years I can categorically confirm that most offers to pay for a TR have come from airline pilots trying to get into corporate/bizjets. I imagine that might become more prevalent in the current climate.

The above notwithstanding I will fly for food, particularly bacon baps.

[G-BLEW]

With respect to the honourable gentleman, I disagree.

It's great that newbie biz jet pilots get their TRs paid for by employers.

Very good to hear.

Ian

[Flintstone]

It's great that newbie biz jet pilots get their TRs paid for by employers.

I may have misled you, by "new" I meant new to the operation and not necessarily to bizjets. In fact few newly-fledged commercial pilots get straight in to such operations. Historically most operators simply didn't have the time, resources or inclination to train them up and when you consider that a two or three person crew can often have to pretty much operate without company ground crew or other support, in far flung places, having a 'noob' along just isn't a realistic proposition. It's also not a place to build hours (with one or two exceptions) so a solid background and a couple of thousand hours is usually the baseline.

Pilots were often drawn from the military, airline retirees or the good old self-improver route with the latter producing the best pilots (obviously ). Nowadays there are larger charter or fractional companies who have the ability to train crew but even so there are few-to-no pilots being employed with a brand new CPL. Netjets Europe implemented a cadet scheme about 15 years ago, right before the last downturn, which ended in tears. Not a lot different to what started this thread really.

[Paul_Sengupta]

The above notwithstanding I will fly for food, particularly bacon baps.

Don't sell yourself short, I'd stipulate at least a bacon, brie and cranberry baguette.

[Overflight]

CAE forecast out yesterday:

https://www.cae.com/cae-pilot-demand-ou ... DO%20promo

[G-JWTP]

Hmm,

Aren't CAE another ' pilot training ' outfit?

G-JWTP

[Josh]

Let’s break it down. They say the world needs an impressive 219,000 pilots in 10 years. That’s only 2,190 per year. Those jobs will be globally distributed, with I suspect the majority of them in the US and the Far East. If we were to say conservatively 25% of those jobs were in Europe, that’s c500 jobs a year in Europe. That is barely the sum of pilots BA and Virgin made redundant this year.

Should illustrate to you the state of the nation.

[Freeflight]

Hmm,

Aren't CAE another ' pilot training ' outfit?

G-JWTP

Actually, their analysis is a lot more conservative than Boeing's or Airbus' stats albeit they look at 10 years rather than 20.

[G-BLEW]

Let’s break it down. They say the world needs an impressive 219,000 pilots in 10 years. That’s only 2,190 per year. Those jobs will be globally distributed, with I suspect the majority of them in the US and the Far East. If we were to say conservatively 25% of those jobs were in Europe, that’s c500 jobs a year in Europe. That is barely the sum of pilots BA and Virgin made redundant this year.

Should illustrate to you the state of the nation.

Erm, might want to check your numbers

Ian

[Freeflight]

Let’s break it down. They say the world needs an impressive 219,000 pilots in 10 years. That’s only 2,190 per year. Those jobs will be globally distributed, with I suspect the majority of them in the US and the Far East. If we were to say conservatively 25% of those jobs were in Europe, that’s c500 jobs a year in Europe. That is barely the sum of pilots BA and Virgin made redundant this year.

Should illustrate to you the state of the nation.

Er, you allowed to fly by any chance?