seanxair wrote:Miscellaneous wrote:seanxair wrote:...but I think if they can let our two weeks to a French family it might be best for them and us long term.
Why? Do you think a French family are less likely to have and spread the virus? Certainly in the UK I think holidaying may be discouraged for some time yet.
I don't at all.
Please excuse the selective quoting (it was getting unwieldy), but I DO think a French family are less likely to have (and therefore spread) the virus than a UK family,
There are three reasons:
1) France are 9 days ahead of UK in the Covid 'cycle', so while infections and death rates continue declining they will remain ahead of us.
2) Using the death rate as a time-lagged indicator of infection rate, they are reducing infections much quicker than the UK. This is (imo) the result of a much stricter lock-down. The French death rate peaked just below ours but as of yesterday their 7 day rolling average was 151 and UK was 360 (source: FT).
3) Based on somewhat limited evidence (Facebook posts from a friend of mine near Grenoble), the French are taking more care even as they come out of lock-down. Virtually 100% usage of face masks while out shopping at the market, for example.