Non aviation content. Play nice – No religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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By eltonioni
#1664275
With the exception the backstop I’d agree that it’s generally as could be expected. It was always going to be a bit cruddy without no deal being implemented and prepared for on day one.
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By Flyin'Dutch'
#1664277
@eltonioni

What would your solution be then for the NI border, given that there will be a tax gradient over the border and that the UK and EU want to control who and what goes in and out?
By Leodisflyer
#1664278
Wrote the above before the interview on R4 with Labour representative calling for GE and refusing to answer question on A50. Repeatedly accepted that A50 would need to be extended, but wouldn’t call for it as trying to position A50 extension in terms of blaming the Government for be need to do it.

Frankly I’m fed up of the politics surrounding this. There are some very good MPs in Parliament making good, well thought through points from various perspectives. I just wish those close JC would show the same honesty and stop game playing.
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By Flyin'Dutch'
#1664279
JC is like Donald Trump.

'In charge' by fluke.

Both are incompetent.

Their only skills are being against everything. Nothing positive or constructive.
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By Colonel Panic
#1664284
johnm wrote:My point was that one example of an imperfect activity or policy is not a reason to justify Brexit.

Indeed, but neither does one example of why it would be good to remain justify not leaving. Had the decision to either remain or leave been blindingly obvious to one and all then the result of the referendum wouldn't have been as close as it was.

The likes of johnm may despair at the result, but I despair at the way many on here seem incapable to seeing the benefits of both side of the debate.
By johnm
#1664286
I have taken @stevelup point and offer apologies to @Colonel Panic .

On the other points, nothing so far changes the fact that every scenario we've seen makes Brexit worse than Remain and I strongly suspect that many Brexit voters weren't voting for things to get worse, though some will see it as a price worth paying to escape their vision of what the EU represents now and/or in the future.

I think most Remainers would see Maydeal as acceptable damage limitation for which there is an arguable mandate, I certainly would.

No deal is simply insane.
By Colonel Panic
#1664287
johnm wrote:I have taken @stevelup point and offer apologies to @Colonel Panic .

Accepted with good grace :)

johnm wrote:On the other points, nothing so far changes the fact that every scenario we've seen makes Brexit worse than Remain...

(My bold) - but perhaps that is because you only "see" what you want to see? Confirmation bias and all that.
By johnm
#1664288
Colonel Panic wrote:
johnm wrote:...but no Brexit scenario has yet beaten Remain.

Really? Says who? :roll:



I've been through the Scenario Planning scene on this several times.

Thus far no-one has come up with a scenario that shows a better outcome from Brexit than Remain.

It is thought that one possible reason for this is that there a very few opportunities from outside the EU that are not also opportunities from inside the EU. Where opportunities are only available from outside they are outweighed by loss of opportunity on leaving.

This is qualified by the terms on which we leave of course and there are scenarios where it makes little difference, those all involve remaining close to the EU in the sort of way that Maydeal and the political declaration suggest.
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By eltonioni
#1664295
johnm wrote:
Thus far no-one has come up with a scenario that shows a better outcome from Brexit than Remain.

On scenario planning, with respect @johnm (and please correct me if I'm wrong) you are in favour of an EU federal state with these islands in it, so all you see is the economics of that perspective.

That opinion is the minority here as well as in the EU27 and accession states, and we're starting to see the consequences of letting this authoritarian genie out of the bottle. I'd prefer us to be a democratic bystander as the continental mainland tears itself apart again. It's all a bit 1938.
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By Flyin'Dutch'
#1664299
@Colonel Panic

I think it must be difficult to come up with specific tangible economic benefits of Brexit as they would by now have seen the light.

Clear, the absence of Involvement with the EU and vice versa, the absence of the 9Bn contribution etc are obvious but beyond those?

If the latter are matters which was the motivation to vote to leave then it is a job done and just get on with the fall out or otherwise of the process. Some people, surprisingly including one of our kids, takes that view. I think he is being a bit naive.

If the motivation to vote leave was the enormous economic and financial benefit that is to follow Brexit, I think that the outcome may not meet expectations.
By Colonel Panic
#1664302
Flyin'Dutch' wrote:I think it must be difficult to come up with specific tangible economic benefits of Brexit as they would by now have seen the light.

[My bold] Where did it say the electorate had to cast their votes along the lines of tangible economic benefits? There are a raft of "soft" issues which have, in the minds of many, equal validity.

But I digress; I am not firmly in either camp, & I can see benefits of both. I'm not waving a flag for either, just wanting people from both persuasions to see some balance...
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By eltonioni
#1664304
Flyin'Dutch' wrote:@eltonioni

What would your solution be then for the NI border, given that there will be a tax gradient over the border and that the UK and EU want to control who and what goes in and out?

An old Dave Allen joke adapted:

The scene: A lorry driver (played by Jean Claude Juncker) is lost in the Mourne Mountains. He's having a bad time, it's the day of the Irish summer and his dodgy load of Danish foie gras , French bacon, and what's left of the Spanish Bordeaux is all going off. He spots a local (Leo Varadkar) leaning on a farm gate:

Driver: "Escuse me gentleman, pliz can you give ze directions?"
Irishman: “Oi wouldn't start from here if I were you.”
Driver: "I av also ze cake, you can av it all if you elp me."
Irishman: "Ahh g'wan."



If neither the Irish Revenue Commissioners and HMRC are raising deal killing problems it's obviously a political power play, so maybe we should remove the power by leaving with no deal and work backwards from that. Maybe that's not a helpful answer, but I'm not a politician.
By Mike Tango
#1664309
Irrespective of the result there are at least eleven investigations, a number of them criminal, currently ongoing regarding the referendum and some of the players involved in the various campaigns.

If we were watching this unfold somewhere else we’d be shaking our heads in sad disbelief and wonder. In fact, go seek out some foreign (by that I mean further afield than the EU) news coverage and you’ll see that’s what is happening.

Because whatever happens is predicated on what will ultimately be shown to have been a deeply corrupt process there is no quick healing going forward.

If there was any consideration at all for what really is in the national interest it would be setting aside this corrupt shambles, taking some time to take stock and draw breath and then doing it correctly.

I’d have thought irrespective of how anyone voted they’d want the result to have been achieved via a process that was as demonstrably clean and above board as possible as a marginal win for either side in a corrupt process is not a basis for future stability.
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By Flyin'Dutch'
#1664310
@Colonel Panic

There were a whole host of motivations for people to vote for Brexit and some of those will be delivered whatever the deal.

However some campaigned on and suggested huge economic benefits - it is difficult to see those and those who stated that they would have until now not come up with a plan on how to deliver those nor what they could deliver in anything more tangible than - 'we will trade on WTO or better deals and we will prosper'

I think the correct english expression for that is 'a wing and a prayer'


The disparity of motivations has no doubt contributed to the lack of a united plan for Brexit by leave proponents - hence the de facto situation that some who politically were aligned with Remain are doing the job.
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