Wed Jan 11, 2017 6:25 pm
#1511042
If I understand it correctly, the problem is that demand is rising by 4% p.a. which the government is not quite keeping pace with in real terms rises and the UK is already at the low end of EU spending on health. HMG is trying to get more efficiency while still increasing the overall spend above inflation but not spend per head. We will get headlines while HMG doesn't give in. At the margins a few more people may die earlier than they otherwise would.
The NHS as a whole perhaps should be trying harder, but there are two lots of demographic changes causing the problem as well as one social one.
First, no-one is prepared to wait for trivial problems that clear themselves up - something that social media should be helping but isn't. (As a former hypochondriac - seeing the doctor because I don't know - I wince a little since I know I was causing the problem 20 years ago).
The two demographic problems as I see them:
The aging population one is the one that is referred to publicly - we no longer send granny back to an empty house - and there's extreme pressure on local government social care especially in the shires that get a less generous settlement - also containing the population of children of aging parents who will complain more vociferously to the Guardian/BBC. Council taxes and overall spend will have to rise. Council tax is essentially taxing the rich rather than the poor and doesn't get the headlines. Not being so far off an age where I might need help, I find it hard to complain too much about that.
The second problem is referred to less: a large number of migrants not used to the GP structure and who may not be registered. Many of those also use A&E as a second opinion when the antibiotics are not handed out like smarties. (Health tourism is a drop in the bucket - the age range is such that we now have a large number of new young families with sick children who will get better - but like any first time parents they worry).
On my time looking at NHS management I saw a lot of variance. There are some pretty rubbish overpaid people - and a fair population of get rich quick merchants bordering on fraudsters - but also some highly creative and hard working lower paid ones. The NHS is itself a powerful lobby since it has so many employees and contractors, so I don't trust every word I hear from them.
That said, the big numbers on spend per head are hard to argue against. If we want a better NHS without waiting a long time, we will be paying more tax or buying less of something else, such as nuclear weapons platforms.
The NHS as a whole perhaps should be trying harder, but there are two lots of demographic changes causing the problem as well as one social one.
First, no-one is prepared to wait for trivial problems that clear themselves up - something that social media should be helping but isn't. (As a former hypochondriac - seeing the doctor because I don't know - I wince a little since I know I was causing the problem 20 years ago).
The two demographic problems as I see them:
The aging population one is the one that is referred to publicly - we no longer send granny back to an empty house - and there's extreme pressure on local government social care especially in the shires that get a less generous settlement - also containing the population of children of aging parents who will complain more vociferously to the Guardian/BBC. Council taxes and overall spend will have to rise. Council tax is essentially taxing the rich rather than the poor and doesn't get the headlines. Not being so far off an age where I might need help, I find it hard to complain too much about that.
The second problem is referred to less: a large number of migrants not used to the GP structure and who may not be registered. Many of those also use A&E as a second opinion when the antibiotics are not handed out like smarties. (Health tourism is a drop in the bucket - the age range is such that we now have a large number of new young families with sick children who will get better - but like any first time parents they worry).
On my time looking at NHS management I saw a lot of variance. There are some pretty rubbish overpaid people - and a fair population of get rich quick merchants bordering on fraudsters - but also some highly creative and hard working lower paid ones. The NHS is itself a powerful lobby since it has so many employees and contractors, so I don't trust every word I hear from them.
That said, the big numbers on spend per head are hard to argue against. If we want a better NHS without waiting a long time, we will be paying more tax or buying less of something else, such as nuclear weapons platforms.
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