For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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#1894795
Sooty25 wrote:As 4th largest contributor providing 13% of the EU budget, one assumes we'd have picked up the tab for 13% of their bill, plus had vaccines delayed in the way they were in the 27 states.


The OBR's figures make it clear that the cost of the pandemic could have been paid twice over from the lack of damage to GDP due B.

And on the vaccines roll out; the UK chose, as is entirely OK to do, to allow use of C19 vaccines, under an emergency permit, which is possible under EU rules.

Just as it is possible to close borders, make payments to companies etc etc etc ad nauseam.

But we all knew that, innit. :D
kanga liked this
#1894865
Flyin'Dutch' wrote:
Sooty25 wrote:As 4th largest contributor providing 13% of the EU budget, one assumes we'd have picked up the tab for 13% of their bill, plus had vaccines delayed in the way they were in the 27 states.


The OBR's figures make it clear that the cost of the pandemic could have been paid twice over from the lack of damage to GDP due B.

And on the vaccines roll out; the UK chose, as is entirely OK to do, to allow use of C19 vaccines, under an emergency permit, which is possible under EU rules.

Just as it is possible to close borders, make payments to companies etc etc etc ad nauseam.

But we all knew that, innit. :D


Nobody is disputing short term damage to GDP, but it'll be 5 years before we really know one way or another. Not that it was just about money. Thing is, it has happened, it can't realistically be undone, the country just needs to all work in one direction rather constantly tearing each other apart. But in 5 years time, if a chunk of the country have been actively working against making it work, will they be entitled to say " we told you so", or will those that have been working at it be saying "if you'd have helped...."

We won't see eye to eye, but on tuesday I'll be exporting another shipment to France, commerce doesn't stop, I'm doing my bit. I'll spend time doing the customs paperwork now demanded, the customer will pay the clearance fees on delivery though. It's not just the UK that is worse off.
Supercat, Milty, eltonioni liked this
#1894867
Where there is no EU alternative for supplies, of course, trade will continue. And if that means you can continue to sell to the French then I am genuinely pleased for you.

Not everyone is as lucky though as we know with some industries significantly affected.

Here is the OBR's initial assessment, published in March.

https://obr.uk/box/the-initial-impact-o ... th-the-eu/
#1894871
Flyin'Dutch' wrote:Where there is no EU alternative for supplies, of course, trade will continue. And if that means you can continue to sell to the French then I am genuinely pleased for you


I don’t think it’s as simple as that. My engineering company exports about 80% globally including the EU. We have several competitors in the EU but 2 years in, we’ve not lost a massive amount of business. Looking at overall numbers, we’re actually massively up having won two large projects against EU competition all negotiated during covid lockdown with no travel etc. We’ve embraced Brexit and Covid and adjusted our practices. I believe it’s what we do well.

The main issue for us is VAT. The no duty Brexit deal was widely promoted as a successful negotiation. Unfortunately, it didn’t include VAT triangulation so we are now obliged to either have an EU registered company or apply for VAT registration and complete VAT returns for multiple countries - both options with significant cost, time and complexity. But it is what it is so we just get on with it.

So, my point is, trade can absolutely continue even if there are EU based alternatives and in my experience, sensible people all play nicely together. I was in Belgium this week with a customer and as usual, there was a bit of friendly Brexit banter which is quite fun really. If you’ve not travelled yet from the UK to EU, I can advise that at the moment, the non-EU passport queue is much shorter than the EU line - it’s good to focus on the positives. :D
Sooty25, Supercat, StratoTramp and 1 others liked this
#1894875
Agreed, we didn’t win the contracts because of Brexit but we also didn’t lose them because of Brexit when our customers (many others apart from the big contracts) can also buy from EU competition but still buy from us. Customs clearance issues are reducing all the time and we’re all generally just getting used to the new rules of how to play nicely together.

I would personally have preferred to have not had the upheaval of Brexit, but actually, it’s invigorated us and many others to crack on with things and probably gain. I’m pleased that EU exports are up too - it shows the people on the ground are just getting on with it. I do of course accept that there are winners and losers and have sympathy for those who have suffered and really had no alternative but suspect in some cases, there were alternatives but they just weren’t open minded enough to see them.
#1894877
Sooty25 wrote:
Flyin'Dutch' wrote:
Sooty25 wrote:As 4th largest contributor providing 13% of the EU budget, one assumes we'd have picked up the tab for 13% of their bill, plus had vaccines delayed in the way they were in the 27 states.


The OBR's figures make it clear that the cost of the pandemic could have been paid twice over from the lack of damage to GDP due B.

And on the vaccines roll out; the UK chose, as is entirely OK to do, to allow use of C19 vaccines, under an emergency permit, which is possible under EU rules.

Just as it is possible to close borders, make payments to companies etc etc etc ad nauseam.

But we all knew that, innit. :D


Nobody is disputing short term damage to GDP, but it'll be 5 years before we really know one way or another. Not that it was just about money. Thing is, it has happened, it can't realistically be undone, the country just needs to all work in one direction rather constantly tearing each other apart. But in 5 years time, if a chunk of the country have been actively working against making it work, will they be entitled to say " we told you so", or will those that have been working at it be saying "if you'd have helped...."

We won't see eye to eye, but on tuesday I'll be exporting another shipment to France, commerce doesn't stop, I'm doing my bit. I'll spend time doing the customs paperwork now demanded, the customer will pay the clearance fees on delivery though. It's not just the UK that is worse off.


Isn’t it odd how all the negatives are concrete and real,

all the positives are conceptual or not actually real.

Just had to mention that, but I’ll bow out before I help the thread get locked!
#1894889
Flyin'Dutch' wrote:Where there is no EU alternative for supplies, of course, trade will continue. And if that means you can continue to sell to the French then I am genuinely pleased for you.

Not everyone is as lucky though as we know with some industries significantly affected.

Here is the OBR's initial assessment, published in March.

https://obr.uk/box/the-initial-impact-o ... th-the-eu/


From that page,

We expect the full impact of Brexit on trade to be manifest only after all the terms of the TCA have been fully implemented and businesses have had time to adjust fully to the change in trading conditions,


OBR recognises a snap shot now, is just that.

The report also goes on to show both exports and imports are down. If imports are down, and assuming demand is constant, either we are sourcing internally or global supply just can not produce. I've struggled the last 2 years with supplies globally due to electronic component shortages. Even PilotAware can't supply due to "global chip shortages". Global, not EU/UK.

As @Milty mentioned, VAT is just a complete mess. It is almost as if the requirement was to just be bloody difficult. The EU, "we are one" mantra goes completely out of the window when the UK wants to export, suddenly "we are 27". No place globally is more difficult to export to than the EU, possibly excluding North Korea and Iran, but it is still happening.

We need to get back to the pandemic discussion.

Oh @Milty congrats on the contracts, well done! :thumleft:
Milty liked this
#1894893
If we look out the window at the actual real world we see that the economy is chugging along nicely, employment is up, unemployment falling and international trade bobbing along as usual.

Image
Image
(ONS)

FD's newspaper prefers not to look at the real world but to cling to a report that says what it wants it to say & FD parrots it back on here because it fits in with his preconceptions.
Milty liked this
#1894918
Robin500 wrote:I find this quite frightening. The economics segment starts at around 18 mins


Like Steve Baker. He is the reason we are freeing up now as he forced Boris to pause for a week and see how the doomsday models never actually occur.
flybymike, Robin500 liked this
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