Sooty25 wrote:
> Kanga what are your thoughts on the future of the Kaliningrad region?
[with no special knowledge let alone authority, of course ]
a. the prior ethnic German population fled or was slaughtered (or expelled to East Germany) in the immediate aftermath of VE Day, The survivors in West Germany used to be a significant political force (denounced as 'revanchist, unrepentant Nazis' in Soviet and Russian media), but I believe that their children are less committed to the supremacy of that cause.
b. under the Helsinki Accords (1975), the signatories (including NATO, WarPac and neutrals in Europe) accepted that the then international boundaries were fixed and would be respected by all:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helsinki_Accords
c. Russia claims to be the heir (with associated rights and obligations) of the USSR to all Treaties and Agreements accepted and agreed by the USSR. Note that this is the basis of Russia claims that the actions it has taken to change boundaries within the former USSR are legitimate (or not inherently illegal) because they were not international boundaries at the time of Helsinki.
What this means is that the Konigsberg (as Der Spiegel still calls it, AFAIK) and the rest of the East Prussia ethnic German diaspora cannot expect any of the (heirs to) Helsinki signatories to support any 'right of return' nor 'compensation for loss of property'*. Similarly, the ethnic Russians who now form the vast majority of the Kaliningrad exclave population (transplanted 70-75 years ago from various, sometimes distant and quite possibly less attractive!, parts of the USSR) are unlikely to vote for any change even if given a free choice; and none of the contiguous neighbours (Poland, Lithuania) nor near ones (the other Baltics, Sweden) are allowed (under Helsinki) to challenge its status as a Russian Federation exclave. What the neighbours can do is frustrate the land or overflight access, especially of military equipment or personnel; but sea or air access through or over international waters remains available to Russia.
* I believe some East Prussia descendants have successfully reclaimed some property or compensation for its loss in the Baltics and Poland.
The exclave is said to be one of the most militarised in the world, both in armaments and in garrison!