For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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By Miscellaneous
#1874992
Colonel Panic wrote:Whether this is true or not I know not, but business customers for oil are getting a better deal right now.

Many years ago when I used to sell the stuff the price was as much as one could get away with (although I never did sell to the domestic market). :wink:
#1875002
Colonel Panic wrote:I spoke with my heating oil supplier yesterday, asking why I, as an "agricultural business user", am being quoted (something of the order of) 48p / litre for heating oil whilst my mother is being quoted ~75p / litre for the same stuff & same quantity by the same supplier (Certas), albeit a different depot. The answer is that agricultural customers can expect a 7-10 delivery whilst residential customers 2-3 weeks (plus), and with prices rising so quickly they have to cover themselves.

Whether this is true or not I know not, but business customers for oil are getting a better deal right now.


My money is on Certas taking advantage of the current fuel delivery problems, which have raised prices at quite a few petrol stations, to screw the domestic customer.

Boilerjuice price chart for England is currently sub 65p per litre incl vat.

https://www.boilerjuice.com/heating-oil-prices-england/

Wales is closer to 60p.

https://www.boilerjuice.com/heating-oil-prices-wales/
User avatar
By Miscellaneous
#1875006
Paultheparaglider wrote:My money is on Certas taking advantage of the current fuel delivery problems, which have raised prices at quite a few petrol stations, to screw the domestic customer.

I agree, Paul. However, I find myself asking, at what price does it transition from being reasonable to screwing the customer? A subjective question, I suggest. :wink:
#1875021
I would suggest that a large company like Certas that must be buying forward and gives the excuse that prices are rising so fast that the difference between delivery in 7 to 10 days and 2 to 3 weeks merits a premium of over 50% to cover themselves are screwing the customer.

And, yes, that is subjective. As would be calling them opportunistic scumbags. :wink:
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By Miscellaneous
#1875025
Paultheparaglider wrote:I would suggest that a large company like Certas that must be buying forward and gives the excuse that prices are rising so fast that the difference between delivery in 7 to 10 days and 2 to 3 weeks merits a premium of over 50% to cover themselves are screwing the customer.

And if I was a director I'd be arguing that it's swings and roundabouts and that when we forward buy and the price falls we have to take the hit. I'd avoid mentioning the swing may not swing equally in either direction. :D

Paultheparaglider wrote:And, yes, that is subjective. As would be calling them opportunistic scumbags. :wink:

:lol: :lol:
#1875031
Miscellaneous wrote:And if I was a director I'd be arguing that it's swings and roundabouts and that when we forward buy and the price falls we have to take the hit.


The thing is, though, that is definitely so in a highly competitive market, but the difference between the two prices that CP mentioned indicates to me, especially when combined with the Boilerjuice charts, that just isn't the case here for those domestic prices.

In any event, forward buying, except in extremis, allows Certas to insure themselves against price moves as they can then quote accordingly, and that is almost certainly what they are doing rather than buying forward as a profit opportunity of itself.

And, regarding the failure of all these electricity companies, failure to cover themselves on their forward price commitments in the form of all those fixed price deals is almost certainly at the heart of the failures. The p&l looked OK when prices were stable, but the risks were huge. Ironically, at the time when prices were stable or falling, the cost of covering that risk would have been relatively low. They shouldn't have ever been betting the company on future prices.
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By VRB_20kt
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1875034
I must confess that I thought the power companies bought futures. It seems that they effectively offered their customers uncovered options. It’s a bizarre way to run a company and turns the entire operation into a substantial gamble - which some of them have lost spectacularly.
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By Rob L
#1875049
Sooty25 wrote:....<snip> Reading the Beano by candle light is a lasting memory..
Much better than Dandy :D

However, power-wise, we're all up the chuff because of shipping, politics, economics, ergonomics, ( and probably loads more -ics suffixes) but mainly due to shipping.

We're all going have to live with it.
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By Propwash
#1875056
The fact that, as I understand it, several power stations, including some nuclear reactors, are being decommissioned over the next 2 or 3 years without adequate replacement isn’t going to help either. I still think we are heading for a re-run of 1970s style power cuts, this time not because of militant trade unions but failure of governments to plan properly.

PW
User avatar
By VRB_20kt
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1875068
There are a number of contributing factors that make grid instability more likely than for some time. Ironically one of the factors is a reduction in heavy industry who in the past could be relied on to release a few MW when things got tight. A second is that the generation locations for a substantial amount of capacity are remote from the major centres of consumption. Then there is the fact that as mentioned some base capacity has been removed allied to an increased reliance on erratic sources such as wind.

In our favour, there are a number of new and relatively new international interconnections which should help matters but (and let’s keep the politics out of this) it remains to be seen how our international partners will react in the event of pan-European difficulties.

The grid has changed dramatically over the past twenty years. It could be more than interesting to see how it fares in extremis.
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By Paul_Sengupta
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1875071
VRB_20kt wrote:In our favour, there are a number of new and relatively new international interconnections which should help matters but (and let’s keep the politics out of this) it remains to be seen how our international partners will react in the event of pan-European difficulties.


https://www.energylivenews.com/2021/09/16/large-fire-at-key-uk-substation-cuts-off-power-from-france/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-58570893

They've recently started operating a new one which they've built on Lee On Solent airfield.

As I understand it, if the wind stops blowing, we have enough gas generating capacity to cover it. That's assuming we can get gas...
User avatar
By Miscellaneous
#1875073
Paultheparaglider wrote:In any event, forward buying, except in extremis, allows Certas to insure themselves against price moves as they can then quote accordingly, and that is almost certainly what they are doing rather than buying forward as a profit opportunity of itself.

I'm not in disagreement with you (although not all distributors supplying the domestic market guard against price increases), I'm merely saying that having a line differentiating between market fluctuations and profiteering is not easily defined. In fact the same individual will draw that line in a different place if selling, rather than buying. Including me. :D
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By Sooty25
#1875099
VRB_20kt wrote:In our favour, there are a number of new and relatively new international interconnections which should help matters but (and let’s keep the politics out of this) it remains to be seen how our international partners will react in the event of pan-European difficulties.

The grid has changed dramatically over the past twenty years. It could be more than interesting to see how it fares in extremis.


Impossible to keep international politics out of it when the threat of cuts by our neighbours is already there.

*https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-05/france-threatens-u-k-power-supply-as-brexit-tensions-escalate

The fact we have allowed many of our utility service companies to become foreign owned is also a major failing. As a nation, we need to become energy self sufficient. I don't understand why all new build houses are not required to have solar roofs, it would be so much cheaper and aesthetically pleasing to add them during the build.

bloomberg chosen to avoid the more politically biased media outlets
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By Flyingfemme
#1875186
So now, the day before my switch happens, I got a letter from BG with their variable prices - that I have been paying for a week now. And they tell me they can save me 41%! Way to get customer loyalty.
The electricity supply picture is about to get very interesting. UK governments, for decades, have been kicking the supply can down the road and Boris may now have to reap the whirlwind.
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