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By TopCat
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1861246
profchrisreed wrote:If you want an accurate forecast, you really have to do it yourself using the online tools which are available.


On this note, what would the esteemed hive mind here reckon on the odds of getting from White Waltham to Wellesbourne and back tomorrow, departing WW at about 11am, and departing Wellesbourne about 3.30pm, without getting snarled up in the widespread heavy showers and storms currently forecast?

It would save me a yucky drive if it was on, but I'm not massively fancying it at the moment.
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By GrahamB
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1861250
TopCat wrote:On this note, what would the esteemed hive mind here reckon on the odds of getting from White Waltham to Wellesbourne and back tomorrow, departing WW at about 11am, and departing Wellesbourne about 3.30pm, without getting snarled up in the widespread heavy showers and storms currently forecast?


At face value it looks like it might be doable, but with a significant risk of it turning mucky and difficult.

Given that it’s only about and hour and a quarter up the M40, why would you bother if the unpredictable weather might mean niggling worries all afternoon about getting back?
By TopCat
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1861254
GrahamB wrote:
TopCat wrote:On this note, what would the esteemed hive mind here reckon on the odds of getting from White Waltham to Wellesbourne and back tomorrow, departing WW at about 11am, and departing Wellesbourne about 3.30pm, without getting snarled up in the widespread heavy showers and storms currently forecast?


At face value it looks like it might be doable, but with a significant risk of it turning mucky and difficult.

Given that it’s only about and hour and a quarter up the M40, why would you bother if the unpredictable weather might mean niggling worries all afternoon about getting back?

Yeah I know. :)

I'd be picked up from Wellesbourne by a colleague that's already going that way. The drive from home to where I'm actually going is a lot more than an hour and a quarter.

More like 4.5 hours of driving for a two hour meeting. Sitting around at an airfield waiting for the showers to fizzle out just seems nicer than the motorway.

But I suspect I'll come to the same conclusion as you :)
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#1861286
I'd say no. Cloud based on the outward leg is all over the place, from 3,000 ft down to 1,000 in places, but you could wiggle your way round the low spots and the odd shower. But the return leg would find a band of heavy rain SW to NE centred on Oxford 15.00-17.00 or later, no easy way round that.
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By TopCat
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#1861289
profchrisreed wrote:I'd say no. Cloud based on the outward leg is all over the place, from 3,000 ft down to 1,000 in places, but you could wiggle your way round the low spots and the odd shower. But the return leg would find a band of heavy rain SW to NE centred on Oxford 15.00-17.00 or later, no easy way round that.

Indeed. That's also what I'm seeing on the site you posted earlier. Thanks for that, BTW, hadn't see it before.

Image

(that's at 16:00)

I don't fancy contending with that, so unless the forecast is very different in the morning, I'll just suck up the driving.

Thanks again :)
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By Irv Lee
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1861305
TV weather guys and gals love spending time on "what happened today", time that would be more educationally spent showing tomorrow's forecast alongside what they had said for the same day 48-72 hours before.
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By skydriller
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1861324
I get really annoyed watching the TV weather when I see a 2 second clip of the atlantic pressure chart with presenter stood in front of most of it, followed by (pick lovey of choice) spending a minute in front of a random picture saying it has been a great/carp day...
#1861352
The BBC weather app for Wick airport ought to be included in the “Bad Joke” thread - it’s that bad. There is big sky up here and all I have to do before I get the hay baler out is take a look at Ben Morven, almost 30 miles away and if it is clear to see, I go - cant se it, leave well alone.
With the far north having three coast lines, we have a weather system all on its own.
I make more use of the jetstream forecast.
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By Irv Lee
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#1861358
@skydriller I was once doing a solo week long Florida tour in a C172, and stayed in a motel that I had found after dark in downtown Key West, and had not explored the motel facilities in daylight. I had hoped to get away reasonably early due to heavy rain forecast for the afternoon. I woke to the sound of torrential rain, another bad forecast it seemed, so i stayed in bed for another hour, mocking the TV weather every 20 minutes as it was reporting of blue skies over all Florida. After an hour or so I opened the curtains to find blue skies and a powerful patio water fountain by the pool just outside my window.
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By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1861364
This kind of weather is seriously frustrating because of the localised effects. A rain storm or thunderstorm of almost any intensity can pop up almost anywhere and in between a cloudbase around 3000ft upwards is fine, but planning a route and sticking with it is a nightmare.
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By TopCat
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1861428
TopCat wrote:I don't fancy contending with that, so unless the forecast is very different in the morning, I'll just suck up the driving.

Well I sucked up the driving.

Flying would have been quite doable, so I was grinding my teeth all the way down the M40 :(

But hey, better down here wishing I was up there, than... :roll:
#1861651
TopCat wrote:
TopCat wrote:I don't fancy contending with that, so unless the forecast is very different in the morning, I'll just suck up the driving.

Well I sucked up the driving.

Flying would have been quite doable, so I was grinding my teeth all the way down the M40 :(

But hey, better down here wishing I was up there, than... :roll:


Don't grind too hard. I checked in the morning and the prediction was still the same. Mid afternoon it showed the Oxford shower line slowing down, so it wouldn't cross your track until around 18.00. Sadly, a 2-3 hour variance is quite common because we're so close to the Atlantic - it could, of course, have gone the other way and arrived half way along your outbound track.

If only we could fly hindsight, I wouldn't have put my glider into so many fields!