Sat Jun 05, 2021 3:20 pm
#1851317
I think the China situation is more nuanced these days. Things could work out differently to some of the fears expressed here.
I'll start of by saying I see many positives about China. The people are smart, hard working, and very capable. And, mostly, very friendly and welcoming. It is hard not to admire the economic progress of the last 3 decades. When I first arrived in Hong Kong in 1990, one of the must do things was to take a trip to the border and admire the duck farms on the other side. If you near that same border now, you see a sea of concrete. Some of the buildings can be seen long before you get anywhere near the border they are so tall. You wouldn't think it was the same place.
Of course, the West has facilitated this by outsourcing manufacturing to China, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. Under previous administrations, the peaceful line followed by China brought almost undreamed of prosperity to China, which was an extremely poor country previously. In many ways, this was win win. Of course, it also gave China an economic power which it is now wielding readily, and, I would argue, injudiciously.
Under Xi, the Chinese leadership has chosen to take an extremely aggressive and nationalistic line. This has gone down well at home, but China has been running amok like, if you will pardon the expression, a bull in a china shop. Unfortunately for China, it has accordingly been making enemies left, right and centre. Even its allies in the region have been seriously aggrieved by the aggressive approach taken by China in the South China Sea. As for the west, its bully boy tactics have basically given it a big wake up call that will not be quickly forgotten. My link above about Lijian Zhou is worth a read. In my opinion, it is a classic case of failing to recognise that no man is an island. Trump was one of the first to take a hard line with China, but despite having many policy differences from Trump, the Biden administration has continued this hard line with regard to China. Australia's relations with China are at an all time low, and New Zealand aren't far behind. As with Canada. Even the UK and the EU recognises the risks, and are taking a more wary line.
Some of the press from Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore also highlight big concerns regionally. As for Japan, it has always historically been a natural enemy of China, and South Korea worries about China's support for North Korea. There are big problems on the border between China and India. You can bully people with your economic power, but eventually people start to say the drawbacks outweigh the advantages. We are close to that point with many nations, and apparent support can disappear very quickly.
In short, China's aggression has opened many eyes, and this won't be quickly forgotten. It has few, if any, real allies now.
Of course, it isn't easy to now disengage economically from China, but this is starting to happen, and that disengagement could well start to accelerate as China overplays its geopolitical hand. What is starting as a trickle, could well turn into a flood. Security concerns over 5g, the impact of covid and the realisation that certain strategic supply lines are better kept in house, and many other issues could well be turning the tide.
Covid has been a disaster for the world, but economically, China will be paying a very high price as well, as global economic contraction will hit it directly and hard. Add this to my points above and we might just find that China's influence in the world might just be at its peak and about to wane.
It used to be that China relied on exports as its own internal economy was small. That is less true than it once was, but it probably has not yet reached the point where it is self sustaining.
China is still vulnerable. The lessons learn by the world in the recent years of a highly aggressive China aren't likely to be quickly forgotten, even if Xi is now advocating a more passive line. Nobody likes a bully, or trusts them just because they start being nice to you.
I used to admire the long term thinking applied by China, but the approach that the current administration has taken seems to fly in the face of this. China could play such a positive role in this world, but for reasons that baffle me, it has chosen to go down a different and ultimately isolationist road.
And, as I said above, no man is an island. I think China is going to learn that lesson the hard way.