[Genghis the Engineer]

I'm watching this with some sort of car-crash morbid fascination. It doesn't bode well at-all for a whole bunch of reasons, particularly in air transport.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57219860

As I understand it from multiple sources.

- Belarus fabricated a bomb threat
- A MiG-29 intercepted a Ryanair jet on an EU internal flight but overflying Belarus which was forced to divert to Minsk after being ToD for its destination, Vilnius, anyhow.
- All pax deplaned, the journalist, his girlfriend, and four mysterious Russians failed to re-board.
- Aircraft resumes journey, 6POB lighter.


The manipulation of essential safety and security protocols for political ends, violation of Chicago Convention protocols, interception of a civilian airliner by a combat aircraft, seizure of somebody from, effectively, within the EU.

All a bit unpleasant isn't it. One hopes that at the very least we're looking at all flights over and to Belarus being cancelled, expulsion of diplomats, and severe sanctions until Mr Protasevich is released. One hopes, but I suspect we won't actually see that.

G

[Charles Hunt]

Indeed.

[johnm]

Little better than piracy IMHO and it's rather interesting that the Ryanair press release didn't mention the disappearance of some passengers..........

[Flyin'Dutch']

It is terrible when states go rogue and break international law, even when it is in a limited and specific way.

No winners, just losers are to come from that.

[akg1486]

Lots of flight routes pass over what we could call "unpleasant" countries. What Lukachenko did may put ideas in other dictators' heads, or at the very least make airlines think that's a possibility and do their best to avoid such airspace.

As was pointed out in the first post, this was an intra-EU flight that just happened to fly over Belarus. The journalist/dissedent was effectively taken from inside the EU.

[Flyin'Dutch']

At times like this we should be grateful that the Ruskis war chest is virtually empty as it's economy is on it's backside; so for now it's some proxy stuff, cyber crime, sabre rattling and the odd poisoning we have to put up with.

[johnm]

Do not underestimate cyber crime and misinformation, its impact can be profound as many unscrupulous politicians have demonstrated in recent times.

We also have a situation where controlling rogues is extremely difficult as they are largely immune to normal sanctions, though their citizens are not.

[squawking 7700]

But "proxy stuff, cyber crime, sabre rattling and the odd poisoning" is all that's needed to keep your 'enemies' (and your 'friends') on their toes - I'd be surprised if there hasn't been the odd incursion in to the MoD's various systems but imagine the disruption and hysteria if, say, Amazon's systems were disrupted.

Joking aside, there has been a number of successful hacks in to industrial infrastructure including in to Iranian facilities (you can guess by whom).

As for Belarus, in reality, what's actually going to happen? nothing - Putin probably rang Lukashenko this morning to congratulate him and they had a laugh about it, that's the impunity with which these people operate.

I was hoping to have had a few days in Minsk this year......


7700

[Colonel Panic]

The journalist/dissident was effectively taken from inside the EU.

Really? Not sure I would quite go that far! A flight from France to Reunion is not exactly an internal EU flight either.

[Flyin'Dutch']

The journalist/dissident was effectively taken from inside the EU.

Really? Not sure I would quite go that far! A flight from France to Reunion is not exactly an internal EU flight either.

I think you are right, although I could see some commentators would suggest it was an internal flight if it had been Gib <-> Lon.



*Reunion is not in the EU as were never IOM or the CI; Italy and Lithuania very much are.

[Colonel Panic]

FD, it sounds like we are in agreement at the top level, although I accept the details re: whether outliers are in or out of the EU.

FWIW I would never suggest a UK > Gib flight was an internal flight, nor would I suggest a-long-way-around JFK to Guam was a domestic US flight.

[Flyin'Dutch']

We are!

[akg1486]

Air Baltic is taking the scenic route now.

[akg1486]

The journalist/dissident was effectively taken from inside the EU.

Really? Not sure I would quite go that far! A flight from France to Reunion is not exactly an internal EU flight either.

Point taken. But I hope you agree that the no government should have the right to force a civilian aircraft, with clearance to pass through its FIR, to suddenly land. Even if the threat was real (which of course nobody believed), the destination (Vilnius) was closer.

[SafetyThird]

I read that the aircraft was only two minutes from Lithuanian airspace, would they really not have just kept on course for that two extra minutes. Does anyone know if the Mig actually threatened them? Presumably the doors to the cockpit were still secure. I completely understand not wanting to risk the passengers but given how close they were would you not keep going?