For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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#1803534
Miscellaneous wrote:
Let me remind you of what I was responding to.
Jim Jones wrote:Excess deaths pretty well do that. No need for detailed case analysis, just compare the current numbers with the average of the last 5 years. It’s not a small number.

It is critical to establish if deaths are direct due covid, or indirect due covid.


At an individual, clinical level accurate diagnosis is crucial. But on a national, global scale, unless you suspect another infection is occurring, it is the only measure of the complete impact Covid is happening that we have at the moment.

And it is possible over time, to find that excess deaths becomes a negative number, and all Covid did was bring death forward a year or 2 as it was effecting those who would have died soon anyway. Perhaps Covid precautions will reduce the incidence of seasonal flu, and fewer lives will be lost to that. But there’s no sign of that at the moment. .
#1803543
Miscellaneous wrote:@Jim Jones I'll leave it there. Seems we are getting further from the initial discussion.

We seem as far away from an exit strategy as we were 20 pages ago. All anyone can offer is more misery and deadly damage to our social fabric and economic prospects.
flybymike liked this
#1803550
As ISTR Dr Fauci, with his gentle and infinite patience and courtesy, saying at a Press Conference immediately after an improbable claim by the President: " we do not set the timetable. The virus sets the timetable"

It may have been the last time he was allowed to 'share the stage' :roll:
#1803560
eltonioni wrote:
Miscellaneous wrote:@Jim Jones I'll leave it there. Seems we are getting further from the initial discussion.

We seem as far away from an exit strategy as we were 20 pages ago. All anyone can offer is more misery and deadly damage to our social fabric and economic prospects.



There’s a Tom Clancy novel whereby after a terrorist attack the stock market crashes and the world economy is on the brink.
The hero, Jack Ryan as POTUS, persuades the banks to roll back all the records as if the events never happened and order is restored.

Given the magic money tree is being used worldwide could the spreadsheets be reset in 2021?

Just a thought....
johnm liked this
#1803582
Jim Jones wrote:Given the magic money tree is being used worldwide could the spreadsheets be reset in 2021?

Just a thought....

I wish I understood more of the economics. But where does the money actually go in a global recession? Presumably the quantum of money is still there, it's just not flowing? All the money that was being spent in restaurants/pubs hasn't evaporated. Presumably the key question is how to you kick start it all into flowing again on the other side.

I guess one up side for the UK is that nearly 20% of our population are retired, and therefore generally not affected by unemployment etc (except those living of investments, which I presume is a minority). Time for a business venture targeted the retired....
#1803584
rikur_ wrote:All the money that was being spent in restaurants/pubs hasn't evaporated. Presumably the key question is how to you kick start it all into flowing again on the other side.

With 9.5m employees furloughed at circa 80% of income there will be a fair number don't have it on reserve to kickstart the economy. :(
eltonioni, flybymike liked this
#1803590
Miscellaneous wrote:
With 9.5m employees furloughed at circa 80% of income there will be a fair number don't have it on reserve to kickstart the economy. :(

But the flip side is there is that all the money that would have been spent on cruises, holidays, sandwiches, pints, festivals, commuting etc for many is still sat in the bank. Had there been no second wave it would have been reasonable to expect a post-COVID boom from pent-up demand, with furlough having carried the majority of people through it.
Now we're getting to the very messy bit for many, furlough ending, reserves spent. But fundamentally there isn't there still a lot of money out there? It's just becoming polarised. Those still in a job, or drawing a pension, I'd expect are still spending less/saving more. Then there's another group where income has gone, and things are getting bleak.
At the risk of over simplification of 30m working population is it something akin to 5m are screwed; 5m are suffering; but 20m are better off than normal? Add to that 12m retired who presumably are also generally better off than normal? It's creating a new gap between haves and have not, but along different boundaries than traditionally.
#1803593
eltonioni wrote:
Miscellaneous wrote:@Jim Jones I'll leave it there. Seems we are getting further from the initial discussion.

We seem as far away from an exit strategy as we were 20 pages ago. All anyone can offer is more misery and deadly damage to our social fabric and economic prospects.


That's because the very idea of an exit strategy is a total nonsense. We cannot set an exit strategy, we are not in control. Total lockdown to stop the virus is the only answer but that destroys so many other parts of the society and economy we have built that we cannot do it. Therefore there is only management, there is no exit.
Cns416, johnm liked this
#1803608
Submit - stop trying to fight an unwinnable fight. Mitigate reasonably but stop fighting, live with it instead. It will pass.

We have a controlling but essentially silly human mindset that we can "fight" things that can't be fought. They can be mitigated or treated if treatments are available, but not fought. See cancer for further details.
flybymike liked this
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