For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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#1803315
Cns416 wrote:Another factor will start to emerge - that of increasing numbers particularity the young who have had the virus and recovered from it.
This cohort is not going to spending a single minute of their time social distancing, face covering and the rest and if anyone thinks they will be paying any attention whatsoever to track and trace telling them to isolate for 14 days as they "might have the virus" you live on a different planet. These people will be the ones who definitely do NOT have the virus.

That mental attitude could turn out to be a disaster for those holding it. As I pointed out in an earlier post, there is now evidence that reinfection is possible in those previously infected, recovered and subsequently tested negative. And the second infection could be more severe than the first. The case I highlighted in Arizona was a man just 25 years old. I bet he thought he "definitely did NOT have the virus" either having previously recovered. The young always tend to feel invincible, but in this pandemic that could ultimately turn out to be an illusion.

PW
johnm liked this
#1803318
Bill Haddow wrote:
Don't disagree, John, except for the term "leaders".

MPs are our representatives, and the cabinet is really just a version of the golf club committee (yeah old, white, and male). Parliament is there to administer the country for the benefit of the people, not to subjugate the people on behalf of parliament's vision of the country. They work for us, not vice versa

Bill H


Precisely, which is why we should be demanding and expecting better from them. I heard a glorious bon mot the other day which sums up at least part of the problem. "Maybe Britain is suffering from cronyvirus" :D
#1803321
Without wishing to stray into the forbidden zone, it is not helpful that the opposition itself is clearly split on what to do: the leader is now calling for a national "circuit break", (how that differs from a full lockdown is not immediately clear but perhaps he feels that a different name would find more public favour), while local mayors from the same party have broken ranks to resist even a local lockdown in their areas of high and growing infection. Similar splits are evident amongst the scientific and medical communities about the best actions to take and when.

It is easy to place all the blame on government, but when those advising it are themselves of differing opinions, and those themselves seem to change at the drop of a hat, I for one can understand the position in which it finds itself. Only the government of North Korea is incapable of error. :wink:

PW
Last edited by Propwash on Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
JAFO liked this
#1803322
So basically we have to cope with the pandemic of stupidity feeding the pandemic of covid 19 and shut places down randomly in the hope of keeping hospitals going until it all subsides because all the vulnerable are dead.

Then we need the equivalent of a DIY Marshall Plan to get the economy going again which will all be paid back in a generation or two assuming we manage to avoid another pandemic in the meantime.

Oh and there's the little matter of the dreaded B word to be coped with in a couple of months as well.

It's all a real triumph for our world beating sloganeers.....
#1803326
@Propwash AIUI SAGE recommended a short sharp lockdown in September and it is they who coined the "circuit breaker" analogy.

The idea was to flatten the curve and give time for a more measured response to the emerging second wave.

The disastrous implementation of test and trace by the Serco led consortium was one reason they felt it was necessary at that time. Arguably that ship has sailed and we have essentially lost control in a number of areas and can look forward to patients being shipped around as happened in Europe in the first wave.
#1803331
Propwash wrote: a national "circuit break", (how that differs from a full lockdown is not immediately clear but perhaps he feels that a different name would find more public favour)


"Circuit break" is a defined period, Prop; lockdown is open-ended. Clear difference. I think a lot of people would find a fixed time easier to cope with in all sorts of ways, though whether it's effective is another matter.
johnm liked this
#1803344
nallen wrote:"Circuit break" is a defined period, Prop; lockdown is open-ended. Clear difference. I think a lot of people would find a fixed time easier to cope with in all sorts of ways, though whether it's effective is another matter.


Sorry, but I dont see the difference.
Lockdown. Circuit break. Curfew. Isolation.
All much of the sameness if you are the one not allowed to live life.
flybymike liked this
#1803347
Most of the country is back in lockdown anyway, "circuit breaker" or not. The difference now is that there is no free money to stay at home. Liverpool and Manchester have been doing "Tier 2" for a couple of months and Covid has gone up. It doesn't work.

Hate bringing it back to the OP, but we can see that lockdowns don't work and there is no vaccine - what's the exit strategy?
flybymike liked this
#1803349
The exit strategy is patience and in the meantime use the mitigation tools and try to keep the hospitals working, there isn't anything else, lockdowns and all other measures fail purely because people don't behave themselves sensibly.
JAFO liked this
#1803352
nallen wrote:
Propwash wrote: a national "circuit break", (how that differs from a full lockdown is not immediately clear but perhaps he feels that a different name would find more public favour)


"Circuit break" is a defined period, Prop; lockdown is open-ended. Clear difference. I think a lot of people would find a fixed time easier to cope with in all sorts of ways, though whether it's effective is another matter.

But we are talking about dealing with an unpredictable virus. Is the suggestion that having entered a "circuit break" with a defined end date, it would end whatever the rate of infection? Or is the reality that once having entered it, it would be extended until the perceived need for it is removed? If the former it would be pointless but damaging economically and if the latter then it is a lockdown as before. Semantics become wearisome.

PW
rikur_ liked this
#1803356
Propwash wrote:But we are talking about dealing with an unpredictable virus. Is the suggestion that having entered a "circuit break" with a defined end date, it would end whatever the rate of infection? Or is the reality that once having entered it, it would be extended until the perceived need for it is removed? If the former it would be pointless but damaging economically and if the latter then it is a lockdown as before. Semantics become wearisome.

PW


We are talking about trying to flatten the curve so the hospitals can cope and SAGE advised in Sept that 2 to 3 weeks would do that. The virus is entirely predictable it will infect people at an exponentially growing rate if mitigation measures aren't effective. Those infected will suffer a range of symptoms from nothing to needing a ventilator and generally speaking that is proportional to age and health condition.
#1803358
The 'don't blame the hospitality industry' argument grates a bit:
Perhaps there never was a need for the myriads of sandwich bars feeding off the perceived needs of office workers:

And pubs have been closing down in droves over the last several years...........................

Perhaps the pubs that were failing and on the brink of going under before Covid , but are now clamouring for government support should be identified and allowed to go:

This is of course the basis of Rishi Sunak's next financial support plan after furlough ; to use taxpayers' money to support viable businesses only.

Peter
#1803359
How do you define a viable business and over what time window?

Concert halls can operate with social distancing as can theatres but that is not financially viable.

Many pubs in the country will be viable with social distancing in the summer but not in the winter.

Some pubs and restaurants can cope with a mixture of limited in house and takeaway sales, but not all.

We decided 40 years ago that we didn't need industry, we could operate as a service and retail economy and so we are extremely vulnerable to restrictions in those areas. Services and retail that can operate on-line with a mix of working from home and careful distribution centre management ought to be OK, but we still see significant outbreaks in warehouses and meat packing plants, which means their management has questions to answer.

There are no easy answers overall but we do know what mitigation measures are available, we're just not very good, as a nation, at using them as effectively as we might at all levels.
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