Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:53 am
#1860431
TopCat wrote:eltonioni wrote:TopCat wrote:This is a dishonest discursive tactic...
Rather than calling me dishonest, or even a high functioning nutcase, I'd appreciate you actually commenting on the available data and situations, because as limited as information may be they are crystal clear. From the data I see and from previous patterns I have a hunch that in a couple of weeks there will be wails of indignation at crowds on beaches and in nightclubs along with much talk of long covid, but an absence of superspreader events with case numbers going down and hospitals not filling up.
Moving the goalposts is another dishonest discursive tactic.
You can have all the hunches you like, but the fact is, hospitalisations are going up, so is ICU occupancy, and so are deaths. And if you can't see that, you're either wilfully ignoring, cherry-picking, or deliberately misrepresenting the data.
I can't tell which it is from the available evidence.
Things may be different in a few weeks time; the kids are on holiday for a while, so that source of mixing will be temporarily absent. But with restrictions more or less gone, there's a lot more scope for people to spread it indoors.
As you say, we'll see. But it's not looking good to me.
Here's the best data that's available on hospitalisation. I posted it on Saturday. You probably just missed it. A little more focus on the topic rather than the person might avoid that.
eltonioni wrote:Cessna571 wrote:eltonioni wrote:Brits travelling to some foreign lands where their vaccinations are way behind us is difficult for them. Not especially because travelling Brits are much of a risk but because they haven't got their vaccination programme together. Their country, their rules, even if many of them are becoming more political than practical.
However, within the UK, the numbers (& a new Israeli study) say that Covid is basically over for everyone who's vaccinated, bar a few edge cases. The unvaccinated and people with comorbidities or other known risks still need to shield. That, or accept that everyone else getting back to normal might pose a risk for them until they are fully vaccinated.
Thanks to vaccines, the exit strategy for the UK and fully developed nations isn't complicated any more. Managing some people's unfounded fears and the mental health pummelling that they have taken over the last year is quite another thing. Oh, and Africa.
I’d feel a lot happier if I knew the demographic of the 60 a day that are dying and the 4000 (and rising) in hospital.
If it really IS over, then the government could prove that by explaining the circumstances of the 420 people who die each week from covid.
If they said “they’re unvaccinated” then it’s over.
Are there any stats on those deaths anywhere?
I don’t know why not.
(Oh, and Whitty, who had done his job well… says we should expect 200 a day shortly)
I don’t call 60 a day “over”, and 200 a day isn’t.
@eltonioni I presume you’ve been double jabbed?
So have I, I hope for us it is over, why are they not proving it is?
Yes, happily double vaxxed thanks. I was so keen I did a bit (quite a lot) of queue jumping!
I mentioned the new Israeli study, here's the important answer that you're after. ISTR they have a vaxxed population of around 5m and of course are a reasonable like-for-like comparison with the UK as a developed democratic nation with a well functioning public health system:During the study period (18.1.2021-20.4.2021) data was reported for 152 patients from 17 general hospitals across Israel. The epidemic curve of new cases is shown in the online supplement and figure S1. The clinical data of the patients are shown in Table 1. The median time elapsed from the 2nd dose to admission was 39.5 days (range 8-97), and 125/152 (82%) of patients were admitted 21 days or more after vaccination, supporting the assumption that they were not infected before vaccination. The median age was 71.1 (range 22-98), most were males (107, 70%) and 38 (25%) were residents of a long-term care facility (LTCF). Only six patients (4%) had no comorbidity. Immunosuppression was present in 60 patients (40%). Common causes of immunosuppression were chronic corticosteroid treatment, chemotherapy or anti-metabolite treatment, solid organ transplantation and anti-CD20 treatment.
Of those hospitalised patients:
71% had Hypertension (which of course may indicate other unseen problems)
48% had Diabetes mellitus
32% were BMI>30
32% had Chronic renal failure
28% had Ischemic heart disease
27% had Congestive heart failure
24% had Chronic lung disease
24% had Cancer
19% had Dementia
5% had Chronic liver disease
40% had Immunosuppression issues
Some had multiples of the above but importantly only 4% of admissions had no known comorbidities.
I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that the UK will have a similar pattern but for some curious reason, HMG isn't sharing this data.
Middle East Peace Expert. Military strategist. Former economist and epidemiologist.
Not always entirely serious.
-Still learning -
Not always entirely serious.
-Still learning -