[eltonioni]

This is a dishonest discursive tactic...

Rather than calling me dishonest, or even a high functioning nutcase, I'd appreciate you actually commenting on the available data and situations, because as limited as information may be they are crystal clear. From the data I see and from previous patterns I have a hunch that in a couple of weeks there will be wails of indignation at crowds on beaches and in nightclubs along with much talk of long covid, but an absence of superspreader events with case numbers going down and hospitals not filling up.

Moving the goalposts is another dishonest discursive tactic.

You can have all the hunches you like, but the fact is, hospitalisations are going up, so is ICU occupancy, and so are deaths. And if you can't see that, you're either wilfully ignoring, cherry-picking, or deliberately misrepresenting the data.

I can't tell which it is from the available evidence.

Things may be different in a few weeks time; the kids are on holiday for a while, so that source of mixing will be temporarily absent. But with restrictions more or less gone, there's a lot more scope for people to spread it indoors.

As you say, we'll see. But it's not looking good to me.

Here's the best data that's available on hospitalisation. I posted it on Saturday. You probably just missed it. A little more focus on the topic rather than the person might avoid that.

Brits travelling to some foreign lands where their vaccinations are way behind us is difficult for them. Not especially because travelling Brits are much of a risk but because they haven't got their vaccination programme together. Their country, their rules, even if many of them are becoming more political than practical.

However, within the UK, the numbers (& a new Israeli study) say that Covid is basically over for everyone who's vaccinated, bar a few edge cases. The unvaccinated and people with comorbidities or other known risks still need to shield. That, or accept that everyone else getting back to normal might pose a risk for them until they are fully vaccinated.

Thanks to vaccines, the exit strategy for the UK and fully developed nations isn't complicated any more. Managing some people's unfounded fears and the mental health pummelling that they have taken over the last year is quite another thing. Oh, and Africa.

I’d feel a lot happier if I knew the demographic of the 60 a day that are dying and the 4000 (and rising) in hospital.

If it really IS over, then the government could prove that by explaining the circumstances of the 420 people who die each week from covid.

If they said “they’re unvaccinated” then it’s over.

Are there any stats on those deaths anywhere?

I don’t know why not.

(Oh, and Whitty, who had done his job well… says we should expect 200 a day shortly)

I don’t call 60 a day “over”, and 200 a day isn’t.

@eltonioni I presume you’ve been double jabbed?

So have I, I hope for us it is over, why are they not proving it is?

Yes, happily double vaxxed thanks. I was so keen I did a bit (quite a lot) of queue jumping!
I mentioned the new Israeli study, here's the important answer that you're after. ISTR they have a vaxxed population of around 5m and of course are a reasonable like-for-like comparison with the UK as a developed democratic nation with a well functioning public health system:

During the study period (18.1.2021-20.4.2021) data was reported for 152 patients from 17 general hospitals across Israel. The epidemic curve of new cases is shown in the online supplement and figure S1. The clinical data of the patients are shown in Table 1. The median time elapsed from the 2nd dose to admission was 39.5 days (range 8-97), and 125/152 (82%) of patients were admitted 21 days or more after vaccination, supporting the assumption that they were not infected before vaccination. The median age was 71.1 (range 22-98), most were males (107, 70%) and 38 (25%) were residents of a long-term care facility (LTCF). Only six patients (4%) had no comorbidity. Immunosuppression was present in 60 patients (40%). Common causes of immunosuppression were chronic corticosteroid treatment, chemotherapy or anti-metabolite treatment, solid organ transplantation and anti-CD20 treatment.

Of those hospitalised patients:
71% had Hypertension (which of course may indicate other unseen problems)
48% had Diabetes mellitus
32% were BMI>30
32% had Chronic renal failure
28% had Ischemic heart disease
27% had Congestive heart failure
24% had Chronic lung disease
24% had Cancer
19% had Dementia
5% had Chronic liver disease
40% had Immunosuppression issues

Some had multiples of the above but importantly only 4% of admissions had no known comorbidities.
I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that the UK will have a similar pattern but for some curious reason, HMG isn't sharing this data.

[eltonioni]

It is perfectly reasonable for people to decide that they do not wish to be vaccinated. It is then perfectly reasonable for them to be excluded from places where there will be a high density of other people. It's their choice.

The same as I can choose not to have a vaccination against Yellow Fever but, if I do that, I have to accept that there are certain countries I cannot visit.

Do you feel the same about Mountain Rescue or the RNLI not turning out because you had a plummet in a planet-destroying light aircraft? Either we have (or at least aspire to) an equal society, or we don't. There isn't really an in-between.

There really is no way for me to respond to that which might not lead to you taking offence so I will refer you to my earlier answer as it is close enough:

You clearly don't read what you don't want to see. I'm not going to bother any longer, I'll leave you to spout nonsense that you can't substantiate and will withdraw from the debate.

You might not be willing to engage, but I think your argument is so poor that I will because it's pretty straightforward.

A Yellow fever jab gets you a certificate to flash at passport control if you personally want to visit Africa and South America. It doesn't require an entire nation to be part of a shonky biometric data experiment just to go to the pub or footy. You surely don't trust HMG with your data do you? I mean, really? We're putting our medical data into a brand new, rapidly built, unproven, already unreliable government / NHS computer system.

What could possibly go wrong when the only thing between you and the bar or terraces is a bouncer or steward asking to see a screenshot or a printout of a screenshot from your smartphone, if you have one. These are the very same security people who when they weren't taking bribes for entry, were just letting people through on the nod. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 84942.html

Here's what a music festival needs this weekend. My bold.

Blackpool Rocks: the Return - North Pier, Blackpool
Hi there,

Important entry requirements for Blackpool Rocks!

The festival's coming up soon, so the organisers have been in touch with some important entry requirements:

In order to gain access to Blackpool Rocks, all ticket holders aged 11 and over (children under 11 are exempt) will need to demonstrate their COVID-19 Status by providing either:

• Proof of full vaccination - both doses received (with the second at least 14 days prior to the festival) or

• Proof of a negative NHS Lateral Flow Test taken prior to travel on the day of arrival at the festival or

• Proof of natural immunity based upon a positive PCR test within 180 days of the festival (including 10 days self-isolation following the result).

Ticket holders from England

If you are resident in England, you can show your status easily via the NHS COVID Pass on the NHS App. For more information on how to do this, please visit here.

We recommend that you screenshot or download a copy of your NHS COVID Pass prior to arrival so that you have it ready to show at the entry gates. Alternatively, you can print a copy and bring this with you.

If you don’t have access to a smartphone or computer, then you can call 119 to request a letter to demonstrate your vaccination status or online here.

Please keep in mind that the letter can take up to 5 working days to reach you. This letter will be sent to the address registered with your GP.

If you cannot access your NHS COVID Pass or if you do not receive a vaccination status letter in time you will need to provide evidence of a negative NHS Lateral Flow Test, by reporting the result here and presenting your NHS email or text notification at the entry gates.

We'll agree that any 12 year old knows how to get around that. Even putting aside the liberties aspect, you'll also surely agree that it's a really terrible idea once it meets the real world.

Don't have a Vaccination Passport? Here, have a negative test confirmation to show at the door. Just text it to yourself.

NHS COVID-19 Notification: Dear Alexander Boris Johnson
Birth date: 19 June 1964
Test date: 07 August 2021

Your coronavirus lateral flow test result is negative. It's likely you were not infectious when the test was done.

Keep the following coronavirus advice including:
- regular handwashing
- social distancing
- wearing a face covering where recommended

Self-isolate if:
- you get symptoms of coronavirus - book a different test at https://www.gov.uk/get-coronavirus-test
- someone you live with test positive, or has symptoms
- you've been traced as a contact of someone who tested positive

If you're doing daily contact testing at work and you are well, you can work today. If all your required daily tests are negative, you can stop testing.

For medical help contact 111. In an emergency dial 999.

None of this stuff actually works, it has more holes than Swiss cheese.

[kanga]

USA: Covid a major factor in highest drop in life expectancy since WW2, with clear raceial and ethnic disparities:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57917973

.. while vaccination rate slowing down, with variation between States:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/57889961

[kanga]

NSW: spread continues; into care homes; Intensive Care cases rising; still apparent AZ hesitancy, which State authorities tring to combat:

"On Tuesday there were about 9,000 Pfizer vaccinations administered at the Sydney Olympic Park hub but only 50 AstraZeneca jabs were given, Health Minister Brad Hazzard said.

Mr Hazzard urged people to book in for the AstraZeneca jab if they were eligible. "

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-22/ ... /100313546

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-22/ ... /100314092

[JAFO]

@eltonioni - you've drawn me back in.

I completely agree that it is possible for people to dodge the rules if they should wish to do so but that is not a reason for not having rules. I know where I can probably get away with driving at 120mph, thereby putting myself and innocent bystanders at risk, that doesn't mean that I will do it. Most people won't.

The rules are there so that the majority of people who do follow them will have some impact on the possible spread of the virus. Of course they're not perfect, nothing is in this world but perfect is the enemy of good enough. I am glad that the organisers of Blackpool Rocks are doing all they can to protect those who wish to visit.

On the other point, if I don't choose to have a Yellow Fever jab I can't go to various parts of the world, if I don't choose to have a COVID jab then I can't go to nightclubs or, it would seem, Blackpool Rocks. Quite a reasonable parallel.

[johnm]

From today's communication from the States of Alderney my bold highlights the qualification that allowed us in on the 5th July and which clearly doesn't prevent infection and transmission but presumably reduces the impact.

His report to the States came as hopes were raised that the current outbreak had plateaued
with no new cases since the figure of 27 positive results and more than 50 self-isolating
announced on Wednesday morning. Of those cases, 13 had received two vaccinations – the
second at least two weeks prior to their test – eight had been partially vaccinated and six
were unvaccinated

The whole story can be read here

[profchrisreed]

Social behaviour is unchanged in sleepy mid-Suffolk. Relaxed chatting in the streets and 100% mask wearing in the shops today including Lidl and the Co-op which serves the least affluent part of town. The interesting test will be the first big gig at our local live music venue - we're asking for masks and lateral flow tests before attending and I expect pretty good compliance.

I'm off to the rural W Midland tomorrow which I suspect will be different, as the village pub is advertising "No restrictions". Interesting social cultural variations, they might help explain why the NW has around twice the infection rate of the SE.

[Cessna571]

I’m on Scilly.

There’s the odd Wally “exercising their right to not wear a mask or socially distance”, why do they “stride to be noticed”, it’s like they walk around almost pointing at their face?

Daring anyone to say something, they’re so “proud” that they are not wearing a mask, it’s very odd.

It’s very annoying when they purposely walk close to you “because they can”.

We had a very odd metal detectorist chap cross a deserted beach to do his detecting about 5 feet from us. I just watched in a bemused manner. I don’t normally stare at people, but it was an interesting social enigma, I was wondering what was going on.

(Scilly this year has some people who wouldn’t normally visit Scilly)

… anyway…

The shops all have signs in the windows asking people to continue wearing masks and sanitise their hands on entry.

The boatmen’s association say masks are still a term of carriage and masks must be worn or travel will be refused.

I’ve just walked past a pub that is heaving, so full in fact that people are standing outside drinking.

20 yards from those shops.

[johnm]

Ignorant ill mannered and worthless twerps

[malcolmfrost]

Visited a petrol station M&S to get some sandwiches and 50% of customers weren't wearing masks. Actually quite shocked

[johnm]

You have to remember that half the population is below average intelligence

[JAFO]

My experiences in Suffolk are quite different to those of @profchrisreed, I've been to a couple of petrol stations - what a life I lead - and I'd say 20% of customers aren't wearing masks. In the Co-op in my nearest town it was about the same for customers but for staff only 20% were wearing masks.

[skydriller]

Im Shocked that you are all apparently Shocked....

[JAFO]

Shocked? No, not really. Saddened, maybe.

[Cessna571]

It’s not the fact that they are wearing masks or not,

it’s the fact that they are so “proud” of the fact that they are not.

(I must admit I’m a bit chippy about this as we have a group member who is an anti vaxxer, and it did wind me up a little, he’s very proud of it you see)


The government need to launch a health campaign next week.

“DO NOT eat 5 fruit and veg a day”.

The part of the population that are proud they don’t wear masks, would suddenly be eating fruit and veg like it’s the only food on earth.