For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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#1904831
@Foo Gee ,

I'm not a medic so my understanding may be incorrect, but I thought if you were still testing positive you could still be infectious. It might be normal for people to not be infectious after 10 days, but there are exceptions.

The following is an interesting case in Wales where the vaccine was actually used to treat, rather than prevent, a covid infection on a long term positive testing case.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/heal ... n-23450697
MikeB liked this
#1904859
Mere anecdote, of course :oops: , but 2 UK (England) households closely related to (but not geographically close to each other nor to) ours have been affected for the first time this week, with all adults fully jabbed. Positive tests among members from 3mo to 70yo. No very serious illness, but considerable nasty discomfort for 24h or more.
#1904867
"...with...".

What's happening now is the shouting. Half of "in hospital with..." are incidental cases. That's not to say there isn't a logistic knock on but after two years, frankly, the NHS should have got itself sorted out. There's a lot of shouting but not so much Covid that matters. In ICU with Covid is thankfully nearly as low as it's ever been.

Here's a couple of factoids from yesterday:
Covid patients in hospital (remembering that over half went into hospital for something else);
England; 13,248. The previous peak was 34,336
Scotland; 2,257. The previous peak was 2,053... ie it's higher now than ever!

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... e=Scotland

Yep, incredibly, Scotland hospitals are indeed dealing with more Covid cases than ever. Scotland, land of compulsory masks, closed clubs, empty stadiums, curfews and travel bans. Counterintuitively, English patients are at a fraction of the peak. Maybe that will change, but after two years of running the real-time comparison on these Islands it would be a brave analyst who would stick their neck out.

Right now I'm not sure what anyone should take away from that but you could be forgiven for thinking that the NHS in Scotland is dangerous and that face mask mandates spread Covid and we have the paperwork to prove it.

Some people might interpret the above as a critical situation but they also need to come up with some actual ways of resolving it that work instead of the busted flush that is masks for everyone, because all I'm hearing is shouting.
flybymike liked this
#1904886
eltonioni wrote:Half of "in hospital with..." are incidental cases.


It's not incidental if you're the one in hospital.

I hear people saying it isn't about the number of deaths.

Well, if you're dead, you're dead but if you're a case that finds you have life-limiting symptoms for many months then COVID can affect your ability to work, your ability to care for those who are important in your life and your ability to live a full life. I bet those people think that cases are the important measure and I bet it doesn't feel incidental to them whether they're ill enough to be in hospital or not.
#1904889
JAFO wrote:
eltonioni wrote:Half of "in hospital with..." are incidental cases.


It's not incidental if you're the one in hospital.

I hear people saying it isn't about the number of deaths.

Well, if you're dead, you're dead but if you're a case that finds you have life-limiting symptoms for many months then COVID can affect your ability to work, your ability to care for those who are important in your life and your ability to live a full life. I bet those people think that cases are the important measure and I bet it doesn't feel incidental to them whether they're ill enough to be in hospital or not.


Yes it is, with all due respect I think you're misunderstanding (or we're on a different wavelength) the meaning of incidental in that if you're admitted for your ingrowing toenail they will habitually test you. If you happen to be +ve you're statistically reported as a "patient in hospital with Covid".

On 17 March 56% of "patients in hospital with Covid" weren't in hospital because of Covid.

Then there is the whole other can of worms which is hospital acquired Covid, which was running at about a quarter or more of "patients in hospital with Covid". You'd be rightly pigged off to go into hospital with a dodgy toenail, test -ve and end up in the ICU a few days later because... well... because it's the NHS.
#1904891
malcolmfrost wrote:Just having a face mask mandate doesn't make it so in practice! We've just had a week in France skiing, and despite a requirement to wear mask in public transport. including gondolas etc. compliance was non-existent, hence the rising rate over there.

Very true. I have no idea about compliance in Scotland but we can't run a better experiment than having four common nations in a usually free travel area but with different Covid rules at various times. The results are blindingly clear, for whatever reasons, all those mandates, rules, laws, closures, curfews, fines, dictatorial regimes and police state sponsored oppression of the public... it doesn't work.

Putting aside the human factors, there's the technical side. I've been saving this graphic, it should chill all lovers of paper flimsies and repurposed pyjamas.

Image

And I've not even mentioned Sweden :P
#1904924
eltonioni wrote:
JAFO wrote:
eltonioni wrote:Half of "in hospital with..." are incidental cases.


It's not incidental if you're the one in hospital.


Yes it is, with all due respect I think you're misunderstanding (or we're on a different wavelength) the meaning of incidental in that if you're admitted for your ingrowing toenail they will habitually test you. If you happen to be +ve you're statistically reported as a "patient in hospital with Covid".


And, with equal respect, you are missing the fact that if, once released from hospital following your ingrowing toenail treatment, you spend nine months unable to work or to live fully due to the COVID symptoms (wherever you acquired it) then your COVID is far from incidental.
kanga liked this
#1904926
eltonioni wrote:Putting aside the human factors, there's the technical side. I've been saving this graphic, it should chill all lovers of paper flimsies and repurposed pyjamas.


So, why would your graphic chill me?

If neither person wears a mask then you can bet on getting it in 15 minutes. If we both wear "repurposed pyjamas" we've got 27 minutes - that means we've got almost twice as long before COVID's a fair bet. If we're both wearing "paper flimsies", we've got an hour together, four times as long.

Both wearing N95 we get a whole day.

Surely that shoots your idea that paper flimsies and repurposed pyjamas don't work down in flames?
MikeB, kanga, Newfy and 1 others liked this
#1904932
eltonioni wrote:..the meaning of incidental in that if you're admitted for your ingrowing toenail they will habitually test you. If you happen to be +ve you're statistically reported as a "patient in hospital with Covid".

On 17 March 56% of "patients in hospital with Covid" weren't in hospital because of Covid.

...
..

.. and, AFAIK, then the 'incidentally' positive patient has to be handled within the hospital under infection protocols. This requires extra staff support (people, consumables and procedures), and reduces hospital bed capacity. So it's not 'incidental' for the hospital, especially if the patient then infects staff or other patients.
JAFO, Paultheparaglider liked this
#1904937
@JAFO The "Long Covid" you describe isn't a thing for most people. It's fine, it really is. For some people it's carp. For others it's a death sentence which is absolutely tragic, like life itself. You still haven't been able to offer any useful parameters as to just how much of something is acceptable and I'd always presumed that you've not a Zero Covid enthusiast. How many deaths a day do you reckon, and how do they balance about the other deadly stuff that would be killing the same people instead? Just chuck out a number, let's discuss it.

On your mask graphic point @JAFO schools, hospitals, care homes, public transport, any workplace really where anything less than an N95 mask is pretty worthless, because the delusion has never really been about whether the masks everyone bar a tiny minority use do actually work, it's about the signals they give. Something isn't always better than nothing.




I did mention logistics @kanga but they NHS has had two years to work out how to organise a pish up in a brewery Covid in a hospital. Two long years. Happily Covid isn't killing like it used to.
How's my November crystal ball gazing holding up?
eltonioni wrote:My assessment is that Omicrom will be twice as fecund and half as fatal as Delta.

Can't get William Hill to take it though. :?

My predictions are worth what you paid for them. If only the same could be said of others... eh, Prof Ferguson?

Not too bad.
flybymike liked this
#1904940
It is precisely because the NHS has has two years experience of dealing with Covid that the staff all know that looking after an inpatient with (even if not admitted for) Covid takes a lot more effort and resources, human and other.
JAFO liked this
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