For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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#1885150
Masks slow down transmission, there’s good, but not perfect evidence. The SoS said this today, so it will give more time for more people to get booster jabs, more time for a new vaccine to be developed , more time for the impact of Omnicron to be assessed.

It is like building a pebble wall around your sandcastle, it delays, but will not prevent the tide washing it away, but you can get your Lego people out.
JAFO liked this
#1885152
@Jim Jones you're still going to get your cloak wet.

JAFO wrote:
eltonioni wrote:
Jim Jones wrote:There was surprise in Whitehall at the degree of conformity to lockdown 1, contrary to the predictions of psychologists. ..


A good point well made Jim. It still didn't hold back the Whuhan Flu / Kent Variant / Indian Variant / South African Variant / Beta / Delta / Omicrom or whatever.


Well, you can't know that because we don't know where we would have been without the lockdown.

Nobody has ever stopped you from wearing a well fitted, medical grade face mask, or compelled you to go to crowded places where C19 is likely to be present*. Maybe you did / didn't do those things.


*hospitals or care home excepted but that's another discussion.
#1885205
Jim Jones wrote:
eltonioni wrote:@Jim Jones you're still going to get your cloak wet.]

Buy it gives me time to get my life jacket on

You could make like @JAFO and swap it out for a decent facemask.

(If we're still stretching the Cnut metaphor, maybe add a scuba tank too :) )

As I've said so many times, I'm not agin masks, I'm agin kidding ourselves that repurposed pyjamas have a magical effect. These Covid measures have consequences that go far beyond Covid, it's not a zero sum game. I'm at risk of mansplaining to a clinician about the wider implication - medical and otherwise - so I'll shut up and give you a go :)



In other news, Omicron is settling in nicely. I hear that Scotland, Land of the Brave Maskwearers and Covid Passport Holders is 6-2 up after the first ten minutes.
Robin500 liked this
#1885210
A True Story...

Pretty accurate assessment

South Africa: Hey guys, look what we discovered in our labs while researching Covid19 variants and mutations

World: What??

SA: It's a new variant of Covid19, seems to be different than others, lets work together and study it further.

World: What? You have a new variant of Covid19?!?!

SA: No, we just found a way to 'identify' a new variant, it seems it has also already been detected in Hong Kong, Israel and Botswana.

UK: Hey guys, no offence but we already have 45,000 cases a day, don't wear a mask everywhere, allow large gathering however we cannot risk getting a new variant.

SA: But we just identified it and showed you guys how to check for this variant, it did not originate here. We have advanced labs because we do research on AIDS, TB and other communicable diseases.

UK: Thank you for the research, however a complete travel ban to you and your 5 neighbors.

Netherlands: We heard UK banned flights to you because you have the new variant, we are also imposing a ban to you and your neighbors!

Namibia: WTF! What did we do? We have less than 20 new cases a day since a month now!

EU: Guys, we have a situation in our hands.

Namibia: The situation where Germany has had 76,000 cases a day and Other countries are breaking daily records for cases?

EU: No, not that situation.

Lesotho: Is it that UK still has 40,000+ cases a day and doesn't seem to have it under control?

EU: No, UK isn't a part of us anymore, not our concern.

Malawi: We hear Poland has some serious rise in cases and hospitalizations

EU: Really?! We have no idea, we must look into it. But not what we are talking about.

Eswatini: What situation then?

EU: We heard that South Africa has a new variant, their numbers are rising rapidly and since some of you are next to them, we need to close travel to the region with immediate effect!

SA: Dude, we just identified it! We only have a few cases in the region. Especially when compared to what you guys have. What's with the knee-jerk reaction?

Namibia: Knee-jerk, that's the word we were looking for.

UAE: We are closing flights to Southern Africa, we don't want to risk it. Sorry guys.

USA: We are looking into this and studying the variant, we wont ban flights yet.

SA: Thank you USA, finally a voice of reason!

Mauritius: Sorry SA and the variant group, I saw some other countries refer to you as that, we are friends and all but we are concerned about our tourism and economy, so we will also ban you guys for now until we know further.

SA: We thought you were family. Goes to show how money is more important!

Belgium: We already have 1 new case of the new variant, thanks a lot SA.

SA: We literally just showed you how to identify it.

UK: Thanks a lot SA, now we also have 2 cases of it.

SA: What about our vaccinated people?

World: Nope, we need to run tests first and figure out what this virus can do and how effective the vaccination is against it.

WHO: Hey guys, a quick question. The next Greek alphabet is 'Xi'. What do we do? China? Are you here?

China: Don't you dare! Leave us and our president out of it. Call it something else. And we don't allow anyone in anyway, so the variant is not our concern.

WHO: We got it boss. It's now called Omicron.

WHO: Sorry we meant Sir. China isn't our boss.

SA: It's true what they say, no good deed goes unpunished. The next time we won't tell you guys about the next mutations or variants we find.

World: Sorry can't hear you, too busy dealing with the outbreak that you caused. How about we talk about this later?


To be continued.....

Written by Nrupesh Soni
flybymike, eltonioni, Robin500 and 1 others liked this
By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1885220
Actually the response is entirely rational and a great deal better than we saw in earlier phases.

Contain, assess, plan and then execute plan is the only sensible response.

It may well be that this turns out to be very infectious but does not cause severe disease in which case things can maybe be eased a bit and the manufacturers can tune the vaccines in month or two.

The issue is that we'll see this over and over again because viruses mutate constantly. The task is to try and ensure that versions that cause severe disease are controlled, mainly by vaccination.
#1885223
Or……

Omnicron exhibits an "unusual constellation of mutations" and is "very different" to other variants that have previously circulated. It’s a big jump in evolution and many more mutations than were expected. 50 mutations overall and more than 30 on the spike protein, which is the target of most vaccines and the key the virus uses to unlock the doorway into our body's cells. Zooming in even further to the receptor binding domain (that's the part of the virus that makes first contact with our body's cells), it has 10 mutations compared to just two for the Delta variant that swept the world. That means it may have the ability to escape current vaccines. This level of mutation has most likely come from a single patient who was unable to beat the virus yet as much as 90% of new infections in Gauteng province may be this new strain. Which would mean Omnicron is already out-competing the (previously considered) highly infectious Delta strain. Hospital admissions in Gauteng due Covid rose by 11% in one day last week.

Now I dunno any more, in this world where every man and his dog is a Nobel winning virologist with a sideline in epidemiology. But in view of the reckless abandon previously exhibited by this government and the precious behaviour of many individuals. Purely on the basis of what we already DO know about this mutation, why on earth WOULDN’T we be cautious for a few days/weeks whilst we find out just a little bit more??
#1885234
A4 Pacific wrote:Or……

Omnicron exhibits an "unusual constellation of mutations" and is "very different" to other variants that have previously circulated. It’s a big jump in evolution and many more mutations than were expected. 50 mutations overall and more than 30 on the spike protein, which is the target of most vaccines and the key the virus uses to unlock the doorway into our body's cells. Zooming in even further to the receptor binding domain (that's the part of the virus that makes first contact with our body's cells), it has 10 mutations compared to just two for the Delta variant that swept the world. That means it may have the ability to escape current vaccines. This level of mutation has most likely come from a single patient who was unable to beat the virus yet as much as 90% of new infections in Guantanamo province may be this new strain. Which would mean Omnicron is already out-competing the (previously considered) highly infectious Delta strain.

Now I dunno any more, in this world where every man and his dog is a Nobel winning virologist with a sideline in epidemiology. But in view of the reckless abandon previously exhibited by this government and the precious behaviour of many individuals. Purely on the basis of what we already DO know about this mutation, why on earth WOULDN’T we be cautious for a few days/weeks whilst we find out just a little bit more??

So why haven't the uk red listed all flights from Europe or Europe red listed flights from the uk , with each country having in excess of 10 times the no of covid cases the risk would appear to be there... nothing wrong with being cautious , but a simple pcr before departure (still have no idea why these were phased out ) and the day 2 LFT would probably have been a good response until they sorted things out.
#1885236
So why haven't the uk red listed all flights from Europe or Europe red listed flights from the uk


Is that what you are clamouring for? Because I suspect if HMG had done that at this juncture, I presume you’d be complaining about that too? :lol: :lol:

Of course that may yet become a reality if it’s the case that this mutation is highly transmissible, can escape the vaccine, and is potent. (Current vaccines being the reason we were able to reopen the borders in the first place without the need for extensive PCR!)

Then I guess you’ll be happy? :roll:
#1885243
A4 Pacific wrote:
So why haven't the uk red listed all flights from Europe or Europe red listed flights from the uk


Is that what you are clamouring for? Because I suspect if HMG had done that at this juncture, I presume you’d be complaining about that too? :lol: :lol:

Of course that may yet become a reality if it’s the case that this mutation is highly transmissibility and can escape the vaccine that works so well against the current threat. (Current vaccines being the reason we were able to reopen the borders in the first place without the need for extensive PCR!)

Then I guess you’ll be happy? :roll:


Im not clamouring for anything im just pointing out that there is massive inconsistency in the reaction.

Whats with the attitude!! its not about me being happy.
By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1885250
None of this is perfect it's all about practical containment and compromise.

For example if I turn up in Switzerland from the UK by air I'm in for 10 days isolation but as I'm driving there from France I probably get through with my EU compatible NHS Covid pass, but I'm not wholly certain and I'm trying to check so that I'll have an idea where to look for restrictions nearer the time. It's definitely not easy!!
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