For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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#1885099
JAFO wrote:
johnm wrote:I'm beginning to wonder if my skiing holiday in Feb is a) going to be possible and b) worth the aggravation.... :roll:


Read The Times this morning, @johnm ?

Liddle certainly does have a way with words that sometimes... well.. y'know... really gets to the heart of some things. :lol:

RodLiddle wrote:“But we want to go skiing in Tiffindell!” came the plaint from that section of our metropolitan middle class that almost certainly voted for Corbyn and is richer than Croesus. There will be a study done in about 2027 that will prove it was neither pangolins nor deranged commie Chinese biotechers who were responsible for the vast death toll from Covid, but ski bunnies. Ski bunnies returning from stricken Italy were responsible for the first wave over here. And now they’re at it again, desperate to surf the piste and then later develop a mysterious ticklish cough, which they will bring back to share with their friends Ivo and Sophia over a kitchen supper in Fulham.

I thought Covid might have reined in our wanderlust a little, our enormous sense of entitlement to unlimited foreign travel. But nope, not even remotely.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ther ... -vpxz6h7nj



The more I hear about the enfeebled Omicrom the more I'm starting to think we should lift all restrictions and bring on the next variant. Boris Johnson's new catchphrase should be something like "let's put the intergalactic thrusters on Covid evolution". Whaddyathink? :eye:
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By Flyin'Dutch'
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1885112
1. Agree

However the Cambridge experiment just confirms what we from statistics know to be true - testing in a population where there are few cases - that is the asymptomatic is not a useful exercise. You will find few true positives and many false positives.

2. Yes, but that argument does not go for those who end up on ITU/on the ventilator with C19 - both from testing but also clinical signs and symptoms it is clear that they are infected and ill with C19.

3. It is best to compare all cause mortality - correct. But vaccinated does not mean having had one jab; it means having had 2 and then waiting the 2 weeks for antibodies to be present and high.

4. ONS data is unreliable, not only for the reasons he states but also because in the UK people dying 28 days post a positive test are excluded as C19 deaths.

5. There is very good and simple data to demonstrate the effectiveness of the vaccine. The proportion of unvaccinated people on ITU with C19 is much higher than that of the vaccinated ones. If vaccinations did not work there would be no difference and the ratio would be that of the vaccination ratio in the population.

Couple of other issues.

6. He says the real epidemic was in March/April 2020, based on the amount of calls for triage to 999.

A call to 999 is not synonymous with indeed a case - at the start people will not have known what to do and a great number call 999, now most people who are positive with symptoms know that unless they are having breathing difficulties there is nothing the NHS can or will do, you just have to sit it out. These people are not going to call 999 are they?
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#1885121
johnm wrote:Daughter a teacher with small school children SiL medic in minor injuries unit son classical musicians agent. All take the view that “plan B plus “ while we assess is the best way to proceed.


The best way to proceed is to accept that we're all going to catch it, not by devising endless ways of kidding ourselves that we can stave it off nationally, like the ridiculous "Plan B Plus" fantastical wet-dream of the NHS Confederation. They even talk about a "Plan C"! https://www.nhsconfed.org/news/enact-pl ... ter-crisis

Presumably, there aren't any psychologists in the NHS Confederation. Or for that matter anyone who's simply noticed how people actually behave. :roll:
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#1885123
Flyin'Dutch' wrote:
malcolmfrost wrote:
Dutch officials say 13 of the 61 air passengers who tested for positive for Covid-19 after arriving in the Netherlands from South Africa were infected with the Omicron variant, but testing is still going on and the variant may be found in more test samples.


FOCs to the travelers..

To be fair I've been sent a free NHS PCR test to do as we were identified from our PLF as having arrived from SA in the last 10 days.
I've got your issue now! Our 24 hour test cost £80 and the result came in that evening, our emergency one came in later for £140!! Does a red bag cost that much..... :shock:
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#1885125
flybymike wrote:
flybymike wrote:Apparently the main symptoms of Omnicrom are muscle ache and tiredness for a day or two.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59450988

If this one leaves you with antibodies against the other variants then bring it on!
Trouble is, as far as I know, no countries accept a previous infection for a 'covid pass', as they all seem to only accept double vaccinations for border entry etc., even though having had the virus is supposed to be more effective. I wonder why...
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By flybymike
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1885132
Conclusions This study demonstrated that natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 two-dose vaccine-induced immunity. Individuals who were both previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 and given a single dose of the vaccine gained additional protection against the Delta variant.


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21262415v1
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#1885141
eltonioni wrote:
johnm wrote:Daughter a teacher with small school children SiL medic in minor injuries unit son classical musicians agent. All take the view that “plan B plus “ while we assess is the best way to proceed.


The best way to proceed is to accept that we're all going to catch it, not by devising endless ways of kidding ourselves that we can stave it off nationally, like the ridiculous "Plan B Plus" fantastical wet-dream of the NHS Confederation. They even talk about a "Plan C"! https://www.nhsconfed.org/news/enact-pl ... ter-crisis

Presumably, there aren't any psychologists in the NHS Confederation. Or for that matter anyone who's simply noticed how people actually behave. :roll:



There was surprise in Whitehall at the degree of conformity to lockdown 1, contrary to the predictions of psychologists. ..
User avatar
By skydriller
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1885142
Jim Jones wrote:There was surprise in Whitehall at the degree of conformity to lockdown 1, contrary to the predictions of psychologists. ..


Yeah, but this is nearly 2 years plus then and we now know so much more. Im generally law abiding, but if France decided to do another Lockdown, I think that I might be persuaded to actually protest... And that just isnt me - but there is only so much carp one can take when the government prevents you from earning a living...

Regards, SD..
#1885146
Jim Jones wrote:There was surprise in Whitehall at the degree of conformity to lockdown 1, contrary to the predictions of psychologists. ..


A good point well made Jim. It still didn't hold back the Whuhan Flu / Kent Variant / Indian Variant / South African Variant / Beta / Delta / Omicrom or whatever.

I've been having a poolside think about it this afternoon and it occurred to me that the latest announcement is neither fish nor fowl. Right or wrong, I'm now absolutely convinced that we're not in control so yesterdays measures feel very much like "they expect us to be doing something, so have a magic spell and feel good about it".

That then got me thinking about Cnut on the beach (yea, I had a beer in hand to help my concentration :) ) commanding the tide to hold back. As we all know, the point that Cnut was trying to make was to show his fawning Court that he was only a man and they should expect no more from him than a man can do. The stunt was designed to demonstrate humility in the face of nature. He could no more control the ocean than Boris Johnson / Whitty / Vallance et al can control Covid.

Beyond amazing labs devising the actual medical interventions that you medics are now doing so well with, we're no better off than medieval quacks with their incantations, pomades and ducking stools.

Closing borders, wearing masks on the bus isn't going to stop Omicrom arriving and out-competing Delta. It's all so pointless, like setting a throne on a Yorkshire beach and shouting at the North Sea. Omnicroms coming. Like the tide, it's inevitable.

That said, modern people commonly misunderstand Cnut's holding back the tide stunt as one of conceit, not the humility he intended. Maybe Johnson should take note... or already has done and that's why we're wearing masks in Aldi again.
#1885149
eltonioni wrote:
Jim Jones wrote:There was surprise in Whitehall at the degree of conformity to lockdown 1, contrary to the predictions of psychologists. ..


A good point well made Jim. It still didn't hold back the Whuhan Flu / Kent Variant / Indian Variant / South African Variant / Beta / Delta / Omicrom or whatever.


Well, you can't know that because we don't know where we would have been without the lockdown.
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