For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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#1876061
eltonioni wrote:As a nation, it's not something to be worried about any more...


What utter twaddle.

On the day that you started this thread in 2020, there were 18306 positive tests. On the same day this year there were 37529.

On the day that you started this thread in 2020, 694 people were admitted to hospital. On 5th Oct this year (the latest day for which there are figures) there were 816 people admitted.

On the day that you started this thread in 2020, there were 3893 people in hospital. On the same day this year there were 6770.

In the week leading up to you starting this thread, 507 people died with COVID. In the same week this year 639 died.

Every single number is higher than the year before. So, how is it all over? How is that not something that we, as a nation, should be concerned about?
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#1876096
JAFO wrote:
eltonioni wrote:As a nation, it's not something to be worried about any more...


What utter twaddle.

On the day that you started this thread in 2020, there were 18306 positive tests. On the same day this year there were 37529.

On the day that you started this thread in 2020, 694 people were admitted to hospital. On 5th Oct this year (the latest day for which there are figures) there were 816 people admitted.

On the day that you started this thread in 2020, there were 3893 people in hospital. On the same day this year there were 6770.

In the week leading up to you starting this thread, 507 people died with COVID. In the same week this year 639 died.

Every single number is higher than the year before. So, how is it all over? How is that not something that we, as a nation, should be concerned about?


I have no dog in this fight - but in epidemiology, virology etc - it’s fully expected that the front end of the curve is massively under-reported, and the reporting inertia takes some time to even attempt to catch up. Of course, the worse case scenario is the epidemic out-runs the reporting…

I’d be cautious about staking my reputation on the quants of this pandemic for at least the next 10 years, just my honest opinion.
User avatar
By Flyin'Dutch'
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1876098
@OCB Maybe not.

If this was just a bit of a cough and cold then maybe, but with some pretty hard measuring points, hospital admissions, deaths it is unlikely that the modelling is a million miles out on the number of infections. In addition there have been masses of work done by looking at, maybe at first sight unusual, parameters such as virus particles in sewerage etc., as well as the testing for antibodies wide and far.

This ain't over yet, luckily enough we now know that most people vaccinated are well protected and unlikely to end up either in hospital or worse.

We also now know that the initial response was pretty sh1tty.
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#1876104
Flyin'Dutch' wrote:@OCB Maybe not.

If this was just a bit of a cough and cold then maybe, but with some pretty hard measuring points, hospital admissions, deaths it is unlikely that the modelling is a million miles out on the number of infections.
.


You are a hell of lot closer to the front line than me - and tbh, you and others I know in your profession should have a “National Day”for the next few years purely to celebrate/remember the work/sacrifice and sheer misery you have all gone through with this pandemic.

In terms of stats, I would still be cautious about comparing calendar weeks 1
year apart - for the reasons I said.

I did post way back at the very beginning of the pandemic- I did question why serology/tissue sampling and storage of said samples of all mortalities + hospitalisations wasn’t standard practice.

The last pandemic was almost exactly 100 years ago - a quick blood sample and maybe a cheek swab, day by day or even week by week from at least a proportion of the population wouldn’t exactly have been a gargantuan exercise.
#1876106
@OCB - we can only use the figures we have now to decide whether it is currently a matter of concern.

The figures may well have inaccuracies but they are the same inaccuracies as there were twelve months ago, so the comparison is valid.

We do not have the benefit of hindsight, in the same way that the government and those advising it did not have that benefit 20 months ago.
#1876107
Flyin'Dutch' wrote:
We also now know that the initial response was pretty sh1tty.

Are you talking here about the UK response or global? If the former, could you give an example of a country that responded in a way that we should have followed? And I ask that out of genuine interest.

PW
#1876113
JAFO wrote:@OCB - we can only use the figures we have now to decide whether it is currently a matter of concern.

The figures may well have inaccuracies but they are the same inaccuracies as there were twelve months ago, so the comparison is valid.

We do not have the benefit of hindsight, in the same way that the government and those advising it did not have that benefit 20 months ago.

[usermention=2517]

@JAFO[/usermention] - let’s agree to disagree that “ The figures may well have inaccuracies but they are the same inaccuracies as there were twelve months ago”.

Happy, of course, to chunder through the raw data and see how it all shakes out.
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By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1876126
The precise detail of the numbers is not the point and the context of numbers is certainly tricky with testing coverage changes and so forth. However hospital admissions, deaths and hospital residence are pretty solid and the context varies not a lot.

It follows that we are not out of woods by a long chalk.......Not least because health service capacity appears to be getting worse not better.....
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#1876154
Propwash wrote:
Are you talking here about the UK response or global? If the former, could you give an example of a country that responded in a way that we should have followed? And I ask that out of genuine interest.

PW


The whole point of learning from past experience is to recognise you rarely get everything right, and some things can definitely be done differently going forward. Trying to be defensive, downplaying failures or deflecting by saying nobody got it right is counterproductive to doing better next time.

Suggesting FD has some big down on the UK every time he makes a criticism misses the point that we did a lot wrong. And, we need to learn from that. We dithered. There is no way around this, and we need to learn from that.

Even you said a year back

Propwash wrote:It seems that all through this pandemic the government (including the devolved ones that seem to have escaped the same levels of criticism aimed at the UK's despite similar decisions and outcomes)) have trodden a middle path for fear of being seen as too draconian or too lax. The opposition parties have been no better in their thinking. Perhaps they should have jumped one way or the other. I recall a line from my initial training: "When action is required to be taken, it must be taken with sufficient firmness to render it effective."

I make no judgement about which way the authorities should have chosen to go, but being decisive should have been a pre-requisite.

PW


By all means look at other countries. Not to compare our overall performance with the overall performance of those countries, but to drill down to the detail of individual actions that worked and ones that didn't.

As an example, I think we shut our borders too slowly. We didn't quarantine effectively. Especially with all those people coming back from their ski trips. We didn't, as individuals, take it seriously enough at first. Too busy worrying about our day to day lives and our holidays. We slipped up terribly by letting the virus escape from hospitals into care homes with a subsequent horrendous death toll.

We did get the vaccination programme right. There we truly excelled, although other countries are now doing better.

Other countries- take a bow Australia and New Zealand - got off to a much better start, but then didn't perhaps adapt enough to the opportunities offered by the vaccine. So, different countries got different things right and wrong.

It just doesn't matter how other countries compared overall. Just an honest appraisal with the benefit of hindsight of what things worked and what didn't, and in what part of the process. Because next time those lessons might really matter.

And, frankly, I don't care if FD raises issues. We need to be very firmly focused on the ball here. The only point I take issue with FD is

We also now know that the initial response was pretty sh1tty.


We actually knew back then. That is perhaps our most important lesson to learn. We dithered, and weren't decisive. As you said last year.
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#1876163
A good summation by @Paultheparaglider .

Sadly, too many people imagine that this week's Parliamentary Committee report is acting as investigator, prosecutor, judge and jury of the government. Whereas, it should be viewed like an AAIB report, as a learning opportunity. In these situations, the ultimate apportioning of blame is for the courts, not journalists and opposition politician seeking self-serving headlines.
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By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1876164
We know that table top exercises were undertaken that showed flaws in contingency plans and those flaws were not addressed.

We know we were distracted by herd immunity and in this by scientists who ought to have known better

We know that we tried to invent a centralised track and isolate system when we should have built on the local knowledge in the public health network

We know we did a great job on vaccination thanks to Vallance suggesting a task force led by a lady (Kate Bingham), who seems to have been the one good crony, supporting the NHS and local volounteers

We know we have dithered over lock downs and been inconsistent and confusing on other precautions as well as the extension of the vaccination programme and have therefore now fallen behind others

So we clearly need to get better at learning lessons and implementing the results effectively
#1876165
Paultheparaglider wrote:
. . . . .Trying to be defensive, downplaying failures or deflecting by saying nobody got it right is counterproductive to doing better next time.

Suggesting FD has some big down on the UK every time he makes a criticism misses the point that we did a lot wrong. And, we need to learn from that. We dithered. There is no way around this, and we need to learn from that.

Which is not what I said or intended. When I said "And I ask that out of genuine interest" I mean it. I wanted to know if he thought any country was an example the UK should follow if this happened again, because when I look around the world from a lay perspective I don't see many if any countries whose approach was different to, but appropriate for, the UK's, which didn't have unfortunate consequences, whether medical, social or economic.

FD and I disagree on several issues (as he well knows) but on health matters I bow to his experience and knowledge and seeking genuine enlightenment is not being defensive or critical. I am always happy to learn from those better able to bring expertise to the table.

On wider points beyond the pandemic, yes, I do challenge what I often feel are unfair snipes at the UK, of which there are no shortage on this forum from a couple of persistent critics, not just FD, but that doesn't alter the position above.

And no, I still don't think we got everything as a country right or on time. I am, however, humble enough to be very grateful the necessary decisions weren't down to me.

PW
#1876166
JAFO wrote:Every single number is higher than the year before. So, how is it all over? How is that not something that we, as a nation, should be concerned about?


To provide a bit of balance here, and while I think we need to remain cautious as we move into the season where respiratory diseases thrive, we are in a different place than the same time last year. More mixing, more testing. High vaccination levels.

We shouldn't let our guard down, and need to be ready to act if things deteriorate, and the hard numbers of hospital admissions leave no room for complacency, but I'm personally a lot more optimistic than I was at the same time last year.
MikeB liked this
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