For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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#1854775
Nah, it just proves that people with a pint and a pie at the footy have a better idea of risk management than some other people, including people with tenure at fancy universities. Although, as a 'behaviour expert' he seems strangely given to stereotypes of 'young men meeting up to watch football'.

As for the above graphs, they conveniently miss off children, which is the sort of thing authorities might do if they were trying to misrepresent the figures. We can put that right though.
Image

It's weird how more people aren't getting cross about this stuff, but Project Fear is a powerful thing that some folk fall for time and time again. Maybe, at some time, the penny will drop and they will start getting a bit cross at the right things instead of the wrong things. :?
flybymike liked this
#1854791
Charles Hunt wrote:
eltonioni wrote:In today's news, the new virus variant Delta Plusdoublebad is in circulation which will prevent the relaxation of Citizens' rights for their own protection.

In other news, the Leaders will soon gather to celebrate the Citizens' upcoming victories over EUAsia in Football War at Wembley Stadium. Citizens will be invited to two minutes hate beforehand.


Two legs good. Kick ball with them better.


Is this the Orwellian equivalent of a mixed metaphor?
eltonioni liked this
#1854795
@Colonel Panic I don't personally feel the need to because it doesn't matter. People are no longer going to the hospital and dying in a way that we should be concerned about as a society. We keep letting ourselves get dragged into daft conversations about the trees instead of the woods. Micro - v - macro. Fears vs facts.

I suppose with the incredible volume of mass testing done in the UK we will appear to have huge numbers and that's an opportunity to misrepresent the danger levels. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... RA~ESP~SWE
Further misrepresentation is embedded in the mass testing of children, students and staff, but IIRC most of those positive lateral flow tests are later confirmed as negative by PCR. Meanwhile, that wrong single lateral flow test has damaged a whole class's learning. Again.

Even bearing in mind the Portugal game (hello Govey and your special previously unheard of quarantine exemption program), football, Ascot, G7, COP26,... all of it... it matters not as it's all in the realm of "so what ?" People who are vaccinated or age group unaffected SHOULD be going to watch football, the horses and everything else. Including the over 70's gentlepilots' swingers' club - a great opportunity to keep your Breitling on and get it noticed. :lol:


Is nobody else a bit cross that they are fully vaccinated but can't go to an EU nation this summer if Germany manages to force the EU into a two-week quarantine regime for Brits? Just what is it going to take?
flybymike liked this
#1854797
@eltonioni Thought as much; splash away with the criticism of statistics (which you did) and then don't offer an alternative explanation. :roll:

FWIW I am increasingly concerned about the shifting goal posts and the continued use of sledgehammers to crack nuts. IIRC the BBC said yesterday that (something like) 15,000 lives had been saved by the vaccination programme. In itself, that doesn't seem like a good return on investment, but I do accept that it has had other benefits.
Flyingfemme liked this
#1854798
Colonel Panic wrote:@eltonioni Thought as much; splash away with the criticism of statistics (which you did) and then don't offer an alternative explanation. :roll:

FWIW I am increasingly concerned about the shifting goal posts and the continued use of sledgehammers to crack nuts. IIRC the BBC said yesterday that (something like) 15,000 lives had been saved by the vaccination programme. In itself, that doesn't seem like a good return on investment, but I do accept that it has had other benefits.

Stats - the explanation is in the same dataset I linked to, just choose the "share of positive tests" pull down. (Was that what you were thinking?)

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... RA~ESP~SWE
#1854800
eltonioni wrote:..the sort of thing authorities might do if they were trying to misrepresent the figures. ..


I do not claim any competence in medicine nor epidemiloogy nor statistics, and the statistics are obviously open to different interpretations. However, in all the current debates I have seen no evidence of '.. authorities.. trying to misrepresent the figures..'; which 'authorities', 'misrepresenting' how ?
T6Harvard liked this
#1854802
For example @kanga, taking the highest level imaginable, have you forgotten how deaths from all causes were legally recorded as a Covid death if the deceased had tested positive previously?
Last edited by eltonioni on Thu Jun 24, 2021 9:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
flybymike liked this
By TopCat
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1854803
Colonel Panic wrote:IIRC the BBC said yesterday that (something like) 15,000 lives had been saved by the vaccination programme. In itself, that doesn't seem like a good return on investment, but I do accept that it has had other benefits.

For a vaccination programme that's only a few months old?

Without which an extremely (and increasingly, as it mutates) infectious virus would, as it nearly did, twice, overrun our health system, kill thousands more health workers, cause thousands more to leave the service due to burnout, and cripple the country for years while hundreds of thousands more people died and millions more than that suffered with the long term consequences?

Not a good return on investment?

Are you nuts?
T6Harvard liked this
By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1854804
It's not actually very complicated:

Covid 19 hits a wide range of individuals with a wide range of symptoms, essentially ranging from none to serious illness and death.

The number of people impacted by serious illness is enough to knock over the health care system, unless action is taken.

Vaccination, quarantine and other precautions such as mask wearing combine to minimise the impact on the healthcare system and ultimately allow many activities to resume.

If large numbers of cases develop in the community there is an increased risk of mutation producing a variant that defeats vaccination and then there is a need to reintroduce quarantine until vaccines are re-engineered and booster doses administered.

You can whinge all you like but this is the brutal reality and the more idiots take unmitigated risks like joining a football crowd with no masks or allowing travel from foreign parts where the disease is rampant the greater the likelihood that a disastrous new variant will strike.

It's only a few days since Jeremy Farrar rightly pointed out that we're closer to the beginning of this pandemic than the end, from a global perspective.
kanga, TopCat, JAFO and 2 others liked this
#1854805
eltonioni wrote:For example @kanga, taking the highest level imaginable, have you forgotten how deaths from all causes were legally recorded as a Covid death if the deceased had tested positive previously?


What I recall (happy, of course, to be corrected) is that PHE (and the other UK nations' equivalents ?), as soon as tests were available, reported deaths explicitly with the detail 'within 28 days of a positive test'; and this was explicitly repeated in at least BBC news site reports of the figures. I do not recall Ministers failing to include that gloss. Other media may have, and ISTR from images of newspapers' front pages some of their headlines did leave it out.

This approach had the advantage of providing a constant metric, enabling trends to be observed; it had the disadvantage, obviously, that not all such deaths were anything to do with Covid (potentially leading to overreporting), while not all deaths which ought to have been attributed to Covid or complications thereof had pertinent testing done or reported (potentially leading to underreporting). Obviously, other statistics could have been used, and may in some sense have been 'better' (eg, explicit mention of Covid on Death Certificates). However, they, too, may not have been as useful as a trend illustration; eg, because clinicians were learning all the time, but equally were under great time pressures at peaks.

I do not see how this approach could be fairly described as 'authorities trying to misrepresent'.
JAFO, MikeB liked this
#1854806
eltonioni wrote:

Is nobody else a bit cross that they are fully vaccinated but can't go to an EU nation this summer if Germany manages to force the EU into a two-week quarantine regime for Brits? Just what is it going to take?


n pages ago I'm sure I asked what's the flipping point of a vaccination that doesn't let you do anything?

Perhaps just a teeny bit more than a bit cross!!
eltonioni, flybymike liked this
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