For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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By Flyin'Dutch'
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1843280
@eltonioni

That lockdown index is interesting but not sure about its validity.

I know 2/3rds of sfa of mathematical indices but the notion that Germany, France and the UK can all have the same index and Belgium a lighter one is diametrically opposed to what the reality has been in reality.
#1843281
eltonioni wrote:@Jim Jones for that to matter it that would imply that anyone has any clue about what the right time is, which they don't, so it doesn't. The data is as it is, not how we would like it to be if we had special knowledge or foresight]


At the risk of being political, the UK science advisors gave UK government plenty of warning in the autumn. It was based on science and the experience of the preceding spring.
It was ignored.
johnm liked this
#1843302
Two different approaches in US:

A. West Virginia offers $100 savings bond to younger citizens if they get vaccinated

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56900381

B. Private school in Florida bars teachers who have been vaccinated from pupil contact, citing risk of causing sterility

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56905752

Who needs science anyway :roll:
By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1843304
European culture is self evidently decadent, the USA is well known to be bonkers, the third world doesn't have any coherent mechanisms for managing a pandemic, the Far East and Australasia have lessons for everybody if they care to listen.....
#1843323
skydriller wrote:Well, France has been in "confinement" for the third time over the last month and quite frankly the daily no of deaths/hospital cases hasnt changed much since the "curfew" was introduced last year... And Macaroon is now talking of an "open up" plan despite this...so what was the point of the lockdown?

Edit : The french will literally revolt if they cant do "les vaccances" come June/July/August, so quite frankly he doesnt have much choice in opening up during May and by mid June he will be required to open the restaurants again for the main July/August season.



Looks like unrest is brewing in France anyway after that open letter from a number of ex-Generals :?
#1843380
Jim Jones wrote:
eltonioni wrote:@Jim Jones for that to matter it that would imply that anyone has any clue about what the right time is, which they don't, so it doesn't. The data is as it is, not how we would like it to be if we had special knowledge or foresight]


At the risk of being political, the UK science advisors gave UK government plenty of warning in the autumn. It was based on science and the experience of the preceding spring.
It was ignored.

No problem Jim, it's not remotely political for me.

Those advisors are also saying that restrictions, masks, etc will have to stay in place for years (specifically, Ch. Epidemiologist). They haven't got a clue so they fall back on strategies of least known immediate risk. It's the default for state employees and particularly medics. You might not have noticed, being on the inside, but it's crystal clear viewed from outside. I say that genuinely with due respect and gratitude for the work being done and the commitment given.

It doesn't change the facts that such an approach is one dimensional guessing at best. At worst it actually harmful to millions of people. From babies who've never seen adults without masks other than their parents, to the people put into penury who jump off the Humber Bridge, it's a tragedy being made by institutional guessing and arris covering.

However, the unseen tragedy poses no risk to their own careers, just more job security! So, who could blame them for digging out the murky crystal ball last used for Brexit and giving it a polish with a greasy rag?

As for the people using the retrospectoscope, especially in politics, I shan't say what I think in polite company.
flybymike liked this
#1843387
Spooky wrote:..

Looks like unrest is brewing in France anyway after that open letter from a number of ex-Generals :?


background:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56899765

During the Algerian (FLN/OSS) crisis of the '50-'60s we were living in Switzerland, on the opposite side of Lake Geneva from Evian in France where the Mayor was assassinated in 1961. Tensions on the French side of the border, including on the regular lakeshore steamers which stopped in both countries, rose palpably. Our (mainly francophone, of course, there) Swiss neighbours were more than usually scornful of the French and their politics :roll:
By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1843394
The 3 great Abrahamic religions all have form in creating division and hostility. They also have form in harbouring nutters and it's there where religion and politics tend to overlap and it never ends well. Covid provides another hook for such folk to hang their hats on and they need to be firmly dealt with.
#1843451
Back to @eltonioni 's PMI graph (I had to go to wikipedia to find out what a PMI is), it seems to be indicating a gentle trundle with a small and slightly reducing majority of selected Purchasing Managers reporting an increase in trade until Spring 2020 at which point everything dropped whilst the world tried to stop the spread of the Covid plague.

Since then there's the beginnings of some sort of recovery with a much higher noise level on the graph. This is probably a transient caused by the strong Covid-induced signal in 2020 exacurbated by the Brexit effect and different governments reflecting different political priorities.

Mostly however, the PMI graph seems to me to be a classic example of the old doggerel attrubuted to economist Sir Alec Carincross, "A trend is a trend, is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course, through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?".
I first encountered a version of this through the perhaps more fatalistic engineering profession as "A trend is a trend is a trend, but the question is, when will it bend? When some unforseen makes it alter its course, and your predictions all wrong in the end?"
eltonioni liked this
#1843481
kanga wrote:
Spooky wrote:..

Looks like unrest is brewing in France anyway after that open letter from a number of ex-Generals :?


background:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56899765

During the Algerian (FLN/OSS) crisis of the '50-'60s we were living in Switzerland, on the opposite side of Lake Geneva from Evian in France where the Mayor was assassinated in 1961. Tensions on the French side of the border, including on the regular lakeshore steamers which stopped in both countries, rose palpably. Our (mainly francophone, of course, there) Swiss neighbours were more than usually scornful of the French and their politics :roll:




Ms Parly is the Armed Forces Minister. :roll:
Members of the French military, whether actively serving or reservists, are forbidden from expressing public opinions on religion and politics, and Ms Parly has called for those who signed the letter to be punished.


Those retired generals might have a point about the incumbent Sun God Administration. With friends like that... the poor sods must dream of having a boss with enough backbone to resign rather than "punish" them.



johnm wrote:... they need to be firmly dealt with.

What do you suggest?
By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1843542
Interestingly we're now seeing an upward trend in cases across the Southwest region, still relatively small numbers but definitely increasing. So it'll be interesting to see what happens with rate of cases versus the rate of hospital admissions and deaths, hopefully hospital admissions and deaths will stay low....
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