For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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#1887231
In six months time there will be lots of "it would have been worse unless we'd ...."

Let's play the game the other way around.
Does anyone think that today's Plan B announcement will make a blind bit of difference to real world Omicron spread?



I don't. We're still partying on Saturday.
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By StratoTramp
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1887234
Agree. Be human. Unsanitised. :lol:

No more "could be" / "what if" it's clear from last year that all modelling is BS.

Modelling is usually BS. Weather / economics / covid.

:roll: financial crisis 2008. Load of twats being paid mega bucks to predict absolutely nothing.

I have still have had had enough of 'experts' especially professor pants down and commie Mitchie. "Hancock" :roll:
Last edited by StratoTramp on Wed Dec 08, 2021 8:05 pm, edited 8 times in total.
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By skydriller
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1887236
StratoTramp wrote:Yeah sorry I do go off on one. But I am so unsatisfied with the current way of thinking.

We need to embrace life... & death .... Live do not just exist.


I dont think you should apologise. I feel pretty much the same way, and have done from the beginning of this thing.

Regards, SD..
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#1887240
JAFO wrote:
eltonioni wrote:Does anyone think that today's Plan B announcement will make a blind bit of difference to real world Omicron spread?

I don't. We're still partying on Saturday.


And do you think that, maybe, the latter sentence is the reason for the former?


Depends on whether hospitalisations are still linked to cases like they were when many people malformed their cast iron opinions.
flybymike, TrickyWoo liked this
#1887247
eltonioni wrote:Depends on whether hospitalisations are still linked to cases like they were when many people malformed their cast iron opinions.


Well, of course hospitalisations are linked to cases. You don't get hospitalised for COVID if you're not one of the people who has COVID. It's just that the nature of that link has changed thanks to vaccination.
Flyin'Dutch', kanga liked this
#1887249
JAFO wrote:
eltonioni wrote:Depends on whether hospitalisations are still linked to cases like they were when many people malformed their cast iron opinions.


Well, of course hospitalisations are linked to cases. You don't get hospitalised for COVID if you're not one of the people who has COVID. It's just that the nature of that link has changed thanks to vaccination.


Aren't vaccinations wonderful? Just as suggested by the person who started this thread in the very first post over a year ago. ;)

We've got the exit strategy and the numbers to prove it. Do we really have to wait another week while people catch up with the reality of the last year or shall we just carry on trashing the nation and the people in it?


Image


There's an inverse proportionality between covid fear and covid harm.
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#1887250
The link between cases and hospitalisations is weaker thanks to vaccines , but is still there.
If omicron increases cases then hospitalisations follow 2 weeks later, and deaths 1 to 2 weeks after that . Doubling of omicron cases is now 2-3 days and it can evade double vaccinated immunity levels..
Slowing it down means more can be boosted before they get hit by it.
January could be disastrous, or could be fine. It’s a race against mutation. Kent variant wrecked last Christmas. Omicron may do the same. No one knows yet.

But you’ll be fine at your party, …..probably.
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By Flyin'Dutch'
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1887251
Wasn't there a recent report suggesting that there were fewer deaths from omicron than the previous variants?

Yes there was. Early days yet but sound encouraging.

Getting vaccinated including the booster a good idea. Partying maybe a lot less so, and let's face it Xmas parties never really are that brilliant.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-59450988
MikeB, eltonioni, kanga and 1 others liked this
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By StratoTramp
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1887252
We can see after let's get some empirical eltonioni data. :thumleft:

I don't know how I've been fine at work through it all over the last 2 years. Not a sniffle. Plenty of external contacts.

Survivorship bias. Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe the risk is trumped up for the majority of the population. (Post vacinne/having it)

Xmas parties depends of you are in a dysfunctional team or not. Can go either way. But if you get on they can be good.
Last edited by StratoTramp on Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1887254
I shall be partying tomorrow lunchtime, but we’ll be masked except when eating and drinking and most of us will only be there if we had a negative LFT in the morning.

We’ve all had booster shots, so it’s not zero risk, nothing is, but it should be relatively low risk.

If all goes to plan we’ll be taking the kids to the pantomime next weekend and doing dinner and theatre on Christmas Eve, still testing and masking as we go.

I do not take kindly to gung ho idiots who put all that at risk frankly :twisted:
kanga liked this
#1887255
@Jim Jones we'll see I guess Jim. Time is no respecter of either fear or mistakes. My assessment from two weeks ago is still here for future scrutiny...

eltonioni wrote:My assessment is that Omicrom will be twice as fecund and half as fatal as Delta.


...as is everyone else's.

Presumably, everyone else will be looking forward to being wrong if (or when as per my amateur view) the Omnicrom version turns out to be a massive damp squib. Let's hope that I, in my cack-handed big science way, am right and you're all wrong.


Flyin'Dutch' wrote: Partying maybe a lot less so, and let's face it Xmas parties never really are that brilliant.

Under sufferance! A bottle of cheap practice bought wine usually sorts that one out though :)
#1887257
johnm wrote:I shall be partying tomorrow lunchtime, but we’ll be masked except when eating and drinking and most of us will only be there if we had a negative LFT in the morning.

We’ve all had booster shots, so it’s not zero risk, nothing is, but it should be relatively low risk.

If all goes to plan we’ll be taking the kids to the pantomime next weekend and doing dinner and theatre on Christmas Eve, still testing and masking as we go.

I do not take kindly to gung ho idiots who put all that at risk frankly :twisted:


The lovely thing about being on John's ignore list is that I can mention his travels to London to "rescue" family members back to the Cotswolds, Sking trips to the Alps and his personal flights to his second home on Alderney during the 'Covid crisis'...

... and he won't correct me for pointing out the hypocrisy. :lol:

Sorry, I try (and often fail) not to be too snarky but that felt nice after being called an "idiot" for the umpteenth time. I'll stop now. :D


@JAFO :thumleft: let's hope so, we're on the same side.
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