For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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By TopCat
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1810346
The other thing about this pandemic, is that we were very lucky.

It's just a roll of the dice that it wasn't just as transmissible or more so, as this one, but with the lethality of MERS.

It is virtually certain that there will be other coronaviruses that cause serious respiratory disease, and zero reason to imagine that SARS-Cov3 won't be worse.

This one should absolutely not be trivialised, but treated as the dress rehearsal it is.

Given the utter buffoonery with which this one has been (and still is being) 'managed', let's hope some lessons will be learned in time.
johnm, kanga liked this
#1810347
Flyin'Dutch' wrote:
eltonioni wrote:It is my personal professional observation that once it is a community it goes quick and many people get infected in a short period of time.

It is also rare that if one member of a family is infected for the rest of them not to be.

I would agree with that statement, and we have just had one of the rare lucky escapes: A very fit fourth member (27yrs) of our household tested positive last Monday, he had lack of taste/smell and a very occasional cough. He's fine now. We have no real contact with him other than using the same facilities in the house and he doesn't use any of our other downstairs rooms. My wife and I tested negative last Tuesday and have not had any symptoms. A third member (22yrs) was away previous weekend, returned Sunday night, and left Tuesday and has since tested negative too.
In a friend's family (60ish), the male had a rough time with the virus (not needing hospitalisation), the wife had just a slight headache (tested positive), the daughter tested negative.
#1810361
What's interesting about it? It looks a bit desperate to me, like a journo hadn't got their weekly wordage quota done by Friday so they cobbled together some incoherent nonsense over the weekend.
By TopCat
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1810402
Bill McCarthy wrote:TC - since you have joined the happy band of those criticising the government at every opportunity, can you tell us, with the benefit of hindsight, how you would have managed the situation.

I could, but I don't think I will. I don't see any upside to getting involved in threads like this one, as those that agree with me would find what I'd say obvious and uncontroversial, and those that don't, well, it's fairly obvious how these things go on this forum and I don't fancy that particular rabbit hole.

Although having looked through the last few pages, I'm pretty much in agreement with @Flyin'Dutch' on this topic from what I can see.

I'll just say one thing, and it doesn't need hindsight. I would have started, several years ago, by not suppressing the Cygnus report, and by acting on its PPE recommendations at the very least.

I must admit though, I wasn't expecting referring to buffoonery to be controversial.
kanga, johnm, Flyin'Dutch' liked this
By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1810422
HMG still haven't published the Cygnus report in full AFAIK, but a fair bit is known. First it was looking at a severe flu pandemic, close to the worst case scenario. It was an incomplete simulation exercise and showed up a number of holes almost none of which were filled at the time in 2016 when the exercise took place.

The report highlighted some recommendations for areas of further work and some specific actions and those could be seen informing early action on the pandemic in some cases, which was bit too late really.

What should have been done in 2016 is as follows:

The known holes should have been addressed at the time, the simulation should then have been rerun looking at the whole picture and additional holes filled.
#1810425
Decades ago one of my lecturers had a great line that can be parsed into most sectors; "Every Building Regulation is somebody's epitaph".

We expect too much and t'was ever thus. The retrospectoscope is a widely available instrument that's free of charge and can be operated perfectly by almost any mug with a connection to Google. We're doomed to being human and endlessly repeating the same failures, but learning from mistakes and then actually implementing something that's even remotely useful... there's a rare thing if you ever come across it.
T6Harvard liked this
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