For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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#1861610
johnm wrote:Unfortunately @Cns416 that isn't quite right, herd immunity only works through vaccination. The period of immunity bestowed by vaccination is at present unknown and that's why boosters are being considered, essentially as a precaution. If you get it unvaccinated what happens next is a complete lottery you might have no symptoms at all or die on a ventilator and youth and fitness does not eliminate that risk, though it does mitigate it.


Sorry that is incorrect, before vaccination very much greater numbers may have died but herd immunity was eventually achieved for those that survived.
Episodes include Influenza's introduction to North America and the 1918/19 influenza epidemic.
flybymike liked this
#1861612
The problem is that 95% of the population live incredibly boring lives and have to find something to look forward to and some drama to share in. The pandemic has gifted them drama beyond their wildest dreams and it all belongs to them! No wonder they are holding on tightly.
JAFO, Rjk983, Spooky and 2 others liked this
By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1861625
NigelC wrote:Sorry that is incorrect, before vaccination very much greater numbers may have died but herd immunity was eventually achieved for those that survived.
Episodes include Influenza's introduction to North America and the 1918/19 influenza epidemic.


Diseases such as measles mumps polio and chickenpox were endemic before vaccines helped achieve a level of herd immunity, the degree of immunity is affected by resistance, the degree of transmissibility and other factors. Flu is still around merrily mutating which is why the annual vaccination is recommended and the vaccines are constantly re-engineered, Covid will be similar but is more of a problem because of its highly varied impact and high levels of transmissibility.
Flyin'Dutch', kanga liked this
#1861646
johnm wrote:
NigelC wrote:Sorry that is incorrect, before vaccination very much greater numbers may have died but herd immunity was eventually achieved for those that survived.
Episodes include Influenza's introduction to North America and the 1918/19 influenza epidemic.


Diseases such as measles mumps polio and chickenpox were endemic before vaccines helped achieve a level of herd immunity, the degree of immunity is affected by resistance, the degree of transmissibility and other factors. Flu is still around merrily mutating which is why the annual vaccination is recommended and the vaccines are constantly re-engineered, Covid will be similar but is more of a problem because of its highly varied impact and high levels of transmissibility.


That's too simplistic. Herd immunity works more like this:

1. For measles, mumps and chickenpox before vaccines, the adult population had herd immunity from natural infection. But children kept arriving with no immunity, and so they got infected (particularly as schools clump kids together - I remember chickenpox sweeping through the local schools when I was a kid, didn't half itch!). These viruses don't mutate much, and immunity is generally life-long, so herd immunity for adults was maintained by natural infection and these were largely childhood ailments. Smallpox was much the same.

2. Flu mutates all the time, which is why we never achieved adult herd immunity. Even with vaccines we're never going to get to herd immunity for flu.

3. Covid seems to work like flu but mutates more slowly. Probably (but not certainly) natural infection on its own could never achieve herd immunity, or if it did it would be at the cost of a lot of deaths. By the looks of things we are close to (or perhaps have already) achieved herd immunity for (all or some of) the current Covid variants because our vaccine programme has reached so many people, and natural immunity through infection has supplemented that.

4. Maintaining herd immunity for Covid has two uncertainties: (a) how long do natural and vaccination immunity last (too early to tell yet)? and (b) will it mutate to variants which evade immunity (and if so, how fast/often, and how serious will the consequences of infection be)?

Because we can't yet answer these last two questions, but only make predictions, some would like to maintain restrictions while others, more optimistic, think it's an acceptable risk to relax now. It's important to note that delay (unless it's for a year or so) won't answer those questions, but it would answer whether we have reached herd immunity yet and whether the latest Covid variants evade immunity and have serious consequences. And delay won't answer these questions for any new variants which turn up.
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#1861660
kanga wrote:RoI to offer vaccines to 12-15yos:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57984314


former Stormont Education Minister recommends same for NI 12+yos:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-57992080

.. and Scots newspapers suggest that Scots Government considering it:

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpspr ... otsman.png
#1861661
kanga wrote:..
UK Government (only for England, of course, although other nations may follow) said ('Senior cabinet ministers are to discuss ') to be planning to allow double-jabbed travellers from EU and USA, although 'amber', to enter (England) without quarantine:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57992929

..


Confirmed, and that Wales and Scotland will do same:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-57996964

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-58001540
User avatar
By Flyin'Dutch'
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1861723
Travel restrictions into the UK will be adjusted to allow those who have been vaccinated outside the UK but with the approved vaccines to travel to the UK; for some scientifically unfathomable reason they still need a PCR test before travel and then on day two.

Suppose there is still a heap of PCR tests that need to be flogged off...

Cynicism is the new realism.
User avatar
By Flyin'Dutch'
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1861748
Paultheparaglider wrote:On the plus side though Frank, it must be good news for you. And, welcome back.


Thanks but unfortunately we are still not able to travel to the UK as the PCR whilst in the UK means that we potentially get stuck in Q should the PCR test on day 2 either not come back, plenty of reports that the process is not going smoothly or that we do get infected and neither is a risk we can or want to take.
#1861767
kanga wrote:..allow double-jabbed travellers from EU and USA,.. to enter (England) without quarantine:

..
..

Confirmed, and that Wales and Scotland will do same:

..


Stormont Executive to discuss following suit; and other local relaxations:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58004816
Last edited by kanga on Thu Jul 29, 2021 9:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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