For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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#1819828
To help the debate and maybe cheer up some (at least) Forumites: R4's 'More or Less' is back, to probe/clarify/challenge some of the Covid (and other) figures being bandied about by Ministers, media headlines and others. On at this moment (Weds, 0900- ) .. :thumright:
johnm, Flyin'Dutch' liked this
#1820113
This seems a bit weird?

On @BBCNews I have just seen lay people being trained to give Covid vaccine injections whereas I, a doctor for over 50 years, am not allowed to do the same without producing 21 certificates
Last edited by johnm on Thu Jan 14, 2021 3:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
#1820117
A "lay person" might have got all the documentation already in place because they are furloughed from/have just left employment that requires it.
#1820125
johnm wrote:This seems a bit weird?

On @BBCNews I have just seen lay people being trained to give Covid vaccine injections whereas I, a doctor for over 50 years, am not allowed to do the same without producing 21 certificates

Your post seems to indicate that you are a Doctor John?
#1820127
flybymike wrote:
johnm wrote:This seems a bit weird?

On @BBCNews I have just seen lay people being trained to give Covid vaccine injections whereas I, a doctor for over 50 years, am not allowed to do the same without producing 21 certificates

Your post seems to indicate that you are a Doctor John?



No just quoting one......
#1820128
flybymike wrote:
johnm wrote:This seems a bit weird?

On @BBCNews I have just seen lay people being trained to give Covid vaccine injections whereas I, a doctor for over 50 years, am not allowed to do the same without producing 21 certificates

Your post seems to indicate that you are a Doctor John?


He's not, but I am, and he's right:

As a preliminary to volunteering as a vaccinator, I enquired of my defence union (I'm sure I've posted this elsewhere)

Edit: I have it's here:
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=116916&start=1350#p1819150

and I was sent a 16 page form to fill in going back 50 (sic) years to my date of qualification, to include every single post held as a doctor, with dates.
(Ironic as they've got this all on file)

And that's just one item: There are at least another 16 hurdles (OK 21 may be a slight exaggeration).Include a course in Child protection and recognition of radicalisation.

Matt Hancock has promised to simplify this but no sign yet.

In the meantime you can get your jab at Superdrug.
Hancock still has time as, at my age , I'm not volunteering till I've had both my jabs.....

EDIT: The DT continues daily to carry letters from frustrated retired medical practitioners........................ :(
Last edited by PeteSpencer on Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
#1820140
kanga wrote:To help the debate and maybe cheer up some (at least) Forumites: R4's 'More or Less' is back, to probe/clarify/challenge some of the Covid (and other) figures being bandied about by Ministers, media headlines and others. On at this moment (Weds, 0900- ) .. :thumright:



Listened to it today. The BBC at its best. They have a good record of rumbling a government’s spin.
johnm liked this
#1820161
Jim Jones wrote:... The BBC at its best. They have a good record of rumbling a government’s spin.


.. and (just as important these days ?) those of newspaper headlines, which may be fed by Ministers (and their opponents) but also, eg, by proprietors or other influencers
johnm, Jim Jones liked this
#1820180
Maybe this series they focus on numbers that are consequential instead of political gotchas. Perhaps they can start with the 40k extra deaths at home in 2020, of which only 3k are covid related. Prostate cancer deaths up by 56%, heart attacks up by a quarter... those sort of numbers which might cause people to question the religion.
#1820186
eltonioni wrote:Maybe this series they focus on numbers that are consequential instead of political gotchas. Perhaps they can start with the 40k extra deaths at home in 2020, of which only 3k are covid related. Prostate cancer deaths up by 56%, heart attacks up by a quarter... those sort of numbers which might cause people to question the religion.


https://fullfact.org/health/non-covid-deaths-homes/

"So more people have died of each of these diseases in private homes than would be expected in a normal year, but this has been outweighed by the reduction in deaths from these diseases in other settings. "
johnm, MikeB liked this
#1820191
Nothing matters except the cases soaking up hospital resources and the chance to stop that was missed in late September and again in late November and we won’t see it coming back under control until March......COVID has both direct and indirect impact as we know but the only solution is to get the case numbers heading for hospital down and that means following the precautions and getting vaccinations moving as fast as possible.
kanga, malcolmfrost liked this
#1820236
nallen wrote:
eltonioni wrote:Maybe this series they focus on numbers that are consequential instead of political gotchas. Perhaps they can start with the 40k extra deaths at home in 2020, of which only 3k are covid related. Prostate cancer deaths up by 56%, heart attacks up by a quarter... those sort of numbers which might cause people to question the religion.


https://fullfact.org/health/non-covid-deaths-homes/

"So more people have died of each of these diseases in private homes than would be expected in a normal year, but this has been outweighed by the reduction in deaths from these diseases in other settings. "


Not so fast sunshine :) "outweighed" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. So much heavy lifting that Full Fact doesn't even agree with itself;
is almost entirely counterbalanced by a fall


Sadly, although I was working from memory, the extraordinary numbers in my reference are only days old not from October- I'll have a look for it when I get the chance. I have noticed that Professor David Spiegelhalter does have a habit of giving a stat without the surrounding context, especially if it helps out the angle the presenter is looking for and as affable as the presentation is, More Or Less has taken an angle that's pretty aggressive towards this Government.

To be clear, are you saying that the NHS is treating the non-Covid sick as well as it always had? Because if everything is OK and Covid deaths are just deaths that would have happened anyway, and if this is Full Fact statement is true...

The available evidence we have at this point suggests that the total number of deaths is not significantly higher than the average number of deaths in the previous five years.


... there are a lot of awkward questions that need answering, especially by lockdown enthusiasts.
#1820253
@eltonioni Are you not snipping that last paragraph out of context? The relevant text here is:

This is important context, because while deaths in private homes from conditions other than Covid-19 have increased, deaths outside of private homes [my emphasis] (i.e. in hospitals, care homes and hospices) have, in many cases, decreased.

The article does go on to quote Professor David Spiegelhalter…

The available evidence we have at this point suggests that the total number of deaths is not significantly higher than the average number of deaths in the previous five years.


I took it to mean that this was referring to non-Covid deaths. (Though I grant it's not clear.)

On a statistically insignificant sample of one, family experience of the last year would indicate that (a) cancer treatment (at least, non-surgical) carried on and (b) if you had to die, doing it in a hospice/hospital during a pandemic was really best avoided if possible.
#1820267
@nallen agreed, it's definitely not clear and as I found on rereading my reference article that's also a bit murky. But, it's a PA pool article so there's no publication angle. Have a look, see what you think. The retrospectoscope is the only reliable way to see this stuff, the public enquiry will be an eye opener.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/more-40-000-e ... yHtBQrlX0p
nallen liked this
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