[eltonioni]

Not so much a thought experiment as a peek into the future.

Assuming that there's no useful vaccine, what's the exit strategy from this Covid mess for families, the economy, society, education, government... everything?

[Colonel Panic]

One certainly has to wonder; but if my experience at Bluewater yesterday is a true reflection of a New Normal, can someone stop the bus as I want to get off ...

[nallen]

Not so much a thought experiment as a peek into the future.

Assuming that there's no useful vaccine, what's the exit strategy from this Covid mess for families, the economy, society, education, government... everything?

It'll be like days of yore, when diseases that were not fully understood picked off people -- sometimes in large numbers -- apparently at random. Our forebears muttered about "God's will" and carried on. It'll be like that; only with selfies.

[Irv Lee]

One certainly has to wonder; but if my experience at Bluewater yesterday is a true reflection of a New Normal, can someone stop the bus as I want to get off ...

Have you ever been on a bus? (since school)

[Bill Haddow]

The Scottish hospitality trade has been effectively shut down for the next 3 weekends, plus the weekdays in between, based on no scientific evidence. Pointless kneejerk.

Bill H

[johnm]

If even Scotland is losing the plot then we are in some difficulty.

We need a concerted effort to work out where cases are at a very low level of granularity. We then need to find out why they happened. It's called Test and Trace

After that we need to manage the risk by tuning precautions and making them a requirement for everybody.

There is some anecdotal evidence that the 10 pm curfew is counter-productive as folk are heading for the convenience store, stocking up on booze and gathering in confined spaces such as each others' kitchens.......

The precautions haven't changed; keep your distance, wear a face covering in crowded or confined spaces and observe high levels of hygiene. If you do that you stand a chance of keeping things going I reckon, otherwise we'll have to keep shutting down to manage the cases within NHS capacity, which is the critical issue.

[Bill McCarthy]

At the10 o’ clock chucking out time everyone will still head for, and form queues, at chippies and for an Indian “cerry oot” and then, the taxi ranks.

[johnm]

In answer to the original question, there isn't one. Precautions to keep the load on health services manageable will be needed until an effective vaccine becomes available or the disease effectively disappears or goes underground as such infections often do.

[map5623]

We need a concerted effort to work out where cases are at a very low level of granularity. We then need to find out why they happened. It's called Test and Trace

This will only happen once 'backfoot-Boris' and co realise that this should be done at local level.
Big is best does not work in this case.

[avtur3]

Some areas of Manchester have infection rates in excess of 500 per 100,000 of population, notwithstanding that they have been operating under enhanced levels of restrictions for many weeks, and somehow this has not been fully explained. If we can't get to the bottom of that situation then the thought of how the country might deal with a 'no vaccine' situation simply doesn't bear thinking about.

[eltonioni]

So nobody has a clue about the exit strategy then. Looks like it’s just going back to work and living with it.

[Flyin'Dutch']

More and more countries are deploying rapid tests allowing for more, and more effective and quicker testing so there are fewer unnecessary quarantines and more effective track and trace, in addition they do not use excel spreadsheets.

Add to that the expectation that there will be safe and effective vaccine in 6 months and there is light at the end of the tunnel.

[johnm]

So nobody has a clue about the exit strategy then. Looks like it’s just going back to work and living with it.

Too simplistic, we need to get people using the sensible precautions in all contexts. That means a level of discipline in all workers and their employers. The bulk of people are back at work and many never stopped.

The group that is suffering the most are the actors and musicians and their venues and they need focussed attention. There are some efforts at live performances and ingenuity is being displayed.

[JAFO]

So nobody has a clue about the exit strategy then. Looks like it’s just going back to work and living with it.

Well, of course it is. You can't make up an exit strategy to something over which you have no control. As I said elsewhere I have barely used public transport since March and have tried to find other options. I had to take two flights but wore a decent quality mask, kept as much distance as possible in the airport and washed or sanitised my hands regularly.

I have tried to avoid enclosed spaces where people from other households are present. Most of the time we've spent with our (grown-up) children has been in the garden. I have been to restaurants, pubs and cafes but only where it has been possible to sit outside. I've been to shops only when necessary and have shopped online where possible. I have continued to work but done all I can remotely and limited contact with others where I couldn't do that. I have worn a mask and kept my distance and washed my hands on arrival at and after visiting other places. Surely that's all just common sense.

There is no exit strategy other than a vaccine, there are simply common sense ways to adapt. If common sense could become a little more common then that would drive infection rates down and might even see the end of the virus before vaccination is an option but people do not like an exit strategy which actually requires them to do something and would rather whinge and whine that the government aren't dealing with this, like they have any control at all.

I know many of you will say test and trace but with the reliability of tests and the likelihood that people will comply with any directions, that seems to be a rather large and distracting red herring to me.

[johnm]

I know many of you will say test and trace but with the reliability of tests and the likelihood that people will comply with any directions, that seems to be a rather large and distracting red herring to me.

I was with you until this point, test, trace and isolate has always been a fundamental part of infection control. Part of the value in a functioning system is reliable data on which to consider mitigation measures, but the whole thing has to be operated locally.

It's the incompetent introduction of a national system that has caused its validity to called into question.