For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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By Charles Hunt
#1796603
(Have we a blanket ban on discussing this? If so please delete.)

From the start I had accepted the view that this was, by definition, a 'novel' disease against which we have no defence. However I think it was Bob Crowe who linked to this:



on Facebook. Which I recommend to you all.

Fo me the key point is that the author considers that although 'novel' it is no different from other 'novel' viruses that we have experienced in history, and which show a steep rise in deaths, which then tails off, and does not rise in a second wave.

In the early stages I kept an eye on the worldometer site to show number of cases, and numbers of deaths. The point now is, that in the early stages after a lag of a few weeks, the number of cases linked to a sharply increasing number of deaths. However, if you look at the graphs now, despite the vastly increasing number of positive tests, there is no (or very little ) increase in the number of deaths. And this is mirrored across France, Spain and Italy.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Maybe it's not as virulent as I/we first thought.
#1796618
Viruses and other infections reproduce by infecting other victims. A virulent infection changes potential victim behaviour; thus any less virulent strains have a better chance of reproducing. Basic evolutionary mechanisms at work. Otherwise the Black Death would still be flaring up.

I'm hopeful this is what is happening but it's not inevitable. A virulent strain can suddenly take off, as in the 1918 flu pandemic second wave.

So I'm being cautious still, but less so than in April. The riskiest periods seem the next few weeks, as schools and universities reopen, and January when the coldest weather arrives.
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#1796633
Saw that last week. Looks like a well researched argument. The high death rate was the large amount of people expected to die in last year’s flu season that didn’t. The new virus hoovered them up and is now running out of victims. And the flu is back already, killing more people than covid over the last couple of months. The next lockdown will be for flu..........
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By Paul_Sengupta
#1796749
Charles Hunt wrote:However, if you look at the graphs now, despite the vastly increasing number of positive tests, there is no (or very little ) increase in the number of deaths. And this is mirrored across France, Spain and Italy.


I would be less optimistic. The large spike in new cases in recent weeks are mostly in the under 29 age group where there are very few hospitalisations and deaths. However, they are now passing it on to others, and hospitals are just starting to see a rise.

Regarding how the virus spreads, I would suspect that left to its own devices with no lockdown or anything, the peak of deaths would keep rising until maybe 600,000 people had died, then it would tail off into the background over the next 2 years. This is the natural progression. Since only an estimated 6% of people in England have had Covid as of July, after the big peak, this hasn't come anywhere close to getting on that graph yet. We can either let it happen and die out naturally or we can try and contain/control it. At the moment we're trying to contain/control it.
By johnm
#1796752
As we've discussed before the critical issue is hospital capacity to treat those who are severely affected, as long as we all take the recommended precautions we stand a chance of keeping it within bounds.
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By eltonioni
#1796873
Miscellaneous wrote:
Flyingfemme wrote:And the flu is back already, killing more people than covid over the last couple of months.

Don't take @elontonio's post at face value. :wink:

Maybe not all of mine if brains have not been engaged first :) but @profchrisreed has expertly made the point I tried to make a while ago - life evolves to be successful so it needs to keep its hosts alive, not kill them.

Even as a complete amateur I know that we could use Sweden as a lazy parallel but as time passes and we see their outcomes it's becoming more apparent to me that lockdowns just kick the deaths down the road without either building community immunity or allowing the virus to evolve to something less dangerous. Has anyone seen any study on the virus strains here -v- there?
#1796876
In suggesting your post shouldn't be taken at face value I was not making comment as to the rights or wrongs of the approach to covid 19. I have no more interest in fallacious arguments opposing the dealing of the pandemic than I have in favour. Your suggestion that a direct comparison shows flu deaths are greater than covid deaths, which others are now quoting as if fact because it suits their position, is such a fallacious argument. But then you already knew that. :wink:
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By johnm
#1796881
A minor point, but viruses are not alive in the sense that bacteria are, they are chemical phenomena and mutate rather than evolve.

It's that which makes them dangerously unpredictable because mutations are essentially random and some are benign and some are not.

[/oversimplication]
#1798198
Despite the huge number of daily 'cases', which perhaps should instead be called positive results.......

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19- ... dmissions/

Hospital admissions seem asymptotic to zero. Do we really need to continue with onerous lockdown measures?

Edit - oops, I see the graph stops a month ago, anyone have anything that shows latest trends?
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By kanga
#1798220
Charles Hunt wrote:..

Hospital admissions seem asymptotic to zero. ..
Edit - oops, I see the graph stops a month ago, anyone have anything that shows latest trends?


There is a 'hospitals admissions' graph within this BBC Reality Check team report, data up to 13 Sep. It suggests very recent slight rise in several areas


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/54250626
#1798251
As predicted, the huge spikes of under 29s having it has now spread out from there, and hospital admissions have gone up by over 50% in a week:

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/how-many-coronavirus-patients-hospital-18991165

"The latest figures available show that on Monday, September 21, there were a total of 1,469 patients in hospital with Covid-19.

That number is up by 549 from 920 at the same point a week earlier."


Deaths, which I would guess lag positive results by an average of 18 days or so, are now starting to climb.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Click on the latest date and look at the graph.
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By eltonioni
#1798256
Paul_Sengupta wrote:As predicted, the huge spikes of under 29s having it has now spread out from there, and hospital admissions have gone up by over 50% in a week

Fantastic news. 50% definitely isn't the doubling that Whitty and Vallance predicted on Monday. More cause for optimism!

Optimistic graph here vv
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