For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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By Miscellaneous
#1795586
@skydriller I do believe you know exactly what I mean. However, I'll say again; those people gathering on beaches and beauty spots in ridiculous numbers. That includes people gathering for demonstrations and disregarding the intent of the advice. Of course those in the above categories are only examples of a much larger group.

Photographs taken using telephoto lenses are not relevant in any way to the conversation. I am at a loss as to why you would even mention such?

Citing groups that may not fall in to the category is irrelevant and does not detract from the hard of thinking I refer.
By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1795606
@Miscellaneous telephoto lenses make crowds look much more densely packed than they really are
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By Miscellaneous
#1795613
@johnm they do, however what relevance that has to my comment I have no idea. Unless of course you and/or @skydriller are suggesting that all claims of crowding on beaches/beauty spots/public areas were false with photographic trickery used in an attempt to pull the wool over our eyes? Likewise with the suggestion I included people going out about their business in a safe manner as encouraged by the govt, as hard of thinking. :?

My reference refers to the people I mention. Why muddy the discussion with the inclusion of people which by definition do not fall in the the said category? :scratch:
By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1795614
Confusion reigns, how very appropriate :lol:
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By skydriller
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1795622
Miscellaneous wrote:Unless of course you and/or @skydriller are suggesting that all claims of crowding on beaches/beauty spots/public areas were false with photographic trickery used in an attempt to pull the wool over our eyes?


Im suggesting that the Media really love a "ooooohh look!! isnt that awful!!" type story, and that I have seen similar shots taken of beaches near where I live (a very popular tourist destination in France) with "young people crowd together on popular beach" type french headlines and I agree the footage looks like a really crowded beach - except I was there a few times myself and yep, it looks crowded at a distance, but it isnt in reality - families & small groups were at least 3-4m apart on the busiest bits of the beach. And quite frankly I suspect that the UK beach and beauty-spot shots were similar in reality - unless you were actually there yourself and can tell me that complete strangers were indeed sunbathing right next to each other??

My view is that after 6 months of this madness we should all by now know pretty much what is sensible for ourselves and our loved-ones and what is a risk too much... Regardless of "rules"...

Regards, SD..
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By eltonioni
#1795635
In reality there are no identifiable and repeatable “spikes”, just a lot of of hand wringing by people desperate to be right about the real disaster of the economic meltdown they’ve caused by their overreaction.

Calling a few cases in a pub a “spike“ is like calling a plane crash a “spike”. Hospitals are empty. Ventilators are going rusty. Liberty has been taken away. Democracy has been suspended. We need to be getting angry about real things, not imagined things.
Flying_john, Flyingfemme, rogerb and 1 others liked this
By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1795638
I have some sympathy with @eltonioni which will probably cause him to need treatment for shock :lol:

Risk management in a coherent fashion should allow increased activity without losing control and seeing NHS overwhelmed. We also need statistics in context, numbers on their own are no help.

We know the tools in the risk management tool box but up to now we have failed to operate them very well and that is the critical issue we need to get fixed.

As to economic impact it’s really only theatres and concert halls that are in deep doo doo cafes, pubs restaurants round here are coming back to life very successfully as are shops and markets, other industries seem to be operating OK.
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By rikur_
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1795642
johnm wrote:As to economic impact it’s really only theatres and concert halls that are in deep doo doo cafes, pubs restaurants round here are coming back to life very successfully as are shops and markets, other industries seem to be operating OK.

I'd beg to differ. The impacts are widespread: events industry; tour operators; travel agencies; nightclubs; business hotels; high street retail; bus companies; taxi firms; coach hire; and more and more .... and all the sectors that work with them advertising, shop fitting, maintenance, etc etc
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By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1795651
@rikur_ I think it's patchy from what I've observed. A lot of retail has gone on line and and many theatres etc are on the ropes. But just from observation places are increasingly busy. I have only London and Cirencester to draw on with any certainty but both are pretty busy, though not as busy as before the shut down I agree.

The pressure to go back to offices is being resisted by many and that has an impact in shifting economic activity rather than eliminating it as far as I can tell.

If folk behave responsibly the recovery should be able to continue, but there will be long term casualties I'm sure.
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By eltonioni
#1795656
Workplace footfall in our major cities is at about 17% of the norm.

Around 10% of the workforce is still on furlough, which ends on Halloween. The 30/45 day redundancy consultation periods are about to kick in. It's going to be very messy and seems reasonable to assume that 99% of those not already back at work won't be going back. Entire sectors are about to go up in smoke because people liked to stay at home instead of washing their hands and going to work. :cry:
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By Flyingfemme
#1795661
People are doing the things they want to do; plenty of people out shopping in Cheltenham. And not doing the things they would rather not; going to the office.
The big economic problem here is that spending has been redirected away from the small local businesses with shops into the coffers of big business. Amazon and Ocado are having it away, Tesco and Waitrose are doing very nicely. All the little cafes and specialist shops are going under. Money going through small business is worth more to the local economy. A structure that has been built over decades is being blown to smithereens in minutes and many people’s livelihoods and future security went with it. The fallout will be horrible and lasting and Amazon won’t pay taxes to support those whose lives are ruined.
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By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1795666
@Flyingfemme Things seem a bit better in Cirencester, local businesses are getting steady footfall as are the markets. I don't think we're at pre March levels by any means but steady progress....

As to Amazon, having some personal experience of their gross margins on books I can't help feeling their profits might be understated a touch :-)

I wouldn't be averse to seeing major cities abandoned in favour of home working, it would mean that the loss of London to rising sea levels wouldn't matter all that much :wink:
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By skydriller
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1795667
johnm wrote:As to economic impact it’s really only theatres and concert halls that are in deep doo doo cafes, pubs restaurants round here are coming back to life very successfully as are shops and markets, other industries seem to be operating OK.


johnm wrote:The pressure to go back to offices is being resisted by many and that has an impact in shifting economic activity rather than eliminating it as far as I can tell.




Do you really believe this or are you saying it to get a reaction? If you really believe it then you live in your own little world isolated from reality. The resistance to going back to work doesnt "shift the economy", it kills it. :cry:

This is because so many other things rely on people moving from home to office, then staying there all day and going home again. It isnt just coffee shops and sandwich bars, its the guy that drives the bus/train that now isnt used, the guy that maintains that train/ bus, the guy that fuels it (and produces that fuel) , even the guy that makes the replacement bus/train. Then theres car travel and all those journeys that arent happening and the tail behind that too.

And thats just considering one city... Now think about all the inter city travel and then inter country travel that isnt happening, then all the other businesses (hotels/restaurants/taxis etc) that arent getting the clients they used to have and all the people that work in support of those businesses. Then all those that are no longer employed to do all those things dont travel and they then dont have money to do all the leisure activities that drive a whole load of other businesses...

Its a huge big interconnected thing that we call " The Economy"... :thumleft:

Whats really sad is that there are soooo many people that just dont get it. :(
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By eltonioni
#1795672
You're right @skydriller most people don't get it and there's no excuse. Almost 20 years ago this was written by Justin Sacks at the NEF as a simple explainer for a local pound re-spend analysis tool called LM3. Even now few people understand it, fewer public servants use it, and even fewer politicians implement it, which is a bit of a shame. NB, major cities are local economies too.


How local money flows – or doesn’t

Imagine your local economy as a bucket. Nothing fancy or complicated, just an
ordinary bucket like the one under the kitchen sink. Your local economy could be
any size – your neighbourhood, town, county, and so on. Swirling around in that
bucket are all the people and organisations that make up a local economy, such as
schools, banks and stores.
Let’s say you’re a local business in this bucket. You spend £100 on a window cleaner
from the town, so the £100 stays in the bucket. But when you shell out £100 on an
outside caterer from the town nearby, that money doesn’t stay in the bucket.
Spending on the caterer is like a leak in the bucket (you can see now how practical
demonstrations of this have provided hours of fun for us). The £100 leaks out as the
supplier business is outside the local area.
There are usually ways of stopping some or all of this £100 from leaking out. We
could use a local caterer instead, or, if they can’t handle the bigger events, maybe
give them the business for the smaller events, or maybe even use several small
caterers together.

A full bucket means that local people have enough money to buy what they need for
a good quality of life. If your bucket is leaky, though, you will need to pour money in
as fast as it is pouring out in order to keep it full. There are two ways to keep the
bucket full: you can pour the money in faster, or you can keep it in longer by plugging
the leaks.
Some well-to-do communities have huge inflows of money and don’t need to worry
much about how they spend the money or how it leaks out. However, if you’ve read
this far, it’s more likely that you see some room for improvement. In that case, an
important way to improve your local economy is to find ways to stop money from
leaking out as fast as it currently does.
As you become more interested in plugging the leaks in your community’s economy,
and want to get others involved too, you may want to get hold of NEF’s companion
book, Plugging the Leaks: Making the most of every pound that enters your
local economy. You’ll find a more detailed explanation of these concepts (plus a lot
more fun graphics involving buckets) as well as steps for communities to take action.

Blue fingerprints: who touches local money?

Suppose you painted a pound coin blue and watched where it went. Every time it
changed hands within a community, it meant income for a local person. If the blue
paint were to come off onto people’s fingertips, how many people would have blue
fingers before the money finally left the community? The more times it changes hands,
the better for that community. In fact, money that is re-spent in a local area is the
same as attracting new money into that area. Either way, it is new money into the
hands of the person who receives it. What you want to know is: what happened to
that blue pound coin and the fingers it touched? And that’s what our tool does – it
follows the trail of the blue pound coin so you know where your money is going in
your local economy.

Let’s look at a practical example. Leaders in Tayside wanted to evaluate their tourism
industry. Tourism is a very common sector to measure because it is a clear case of
money from outside (in the form of tourists) being spent in the local area. So regions
that depend on tourism often work hard to make the most of that outside investment.
Tayside chose to measure the local economic impact of hotels versus B&Bs, the two
principal types of accommodation in the area. Their study showed that although
tourists staying in hotels spent 70% more than those staying in B&Bs, the total income
generated locally was in fact higher for B&Bs. This was because most of the money
spent in hotels leaked immediately out of the local economy: non-local staff and
owners, legal services provided by London firms, and so on.

So the local economy is the sum of many parts. Where you spend your money matters.
But it also matters where the people you give money to then spend their money.
Flyingfemme liked this
By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1795678
No-one is talking about resisting the return to work, it's the return to offices that's under discussion. Many people have been working their arrises off at home and have developed a new lifestyle and want it to continue at least for the time being.

I'm not suggesting that the economy has recovered merely that many sectors are making progress and many never stopped and some boomed, but some are still stuck and can't make any progress.

Edited to add:

I very well understand the "bucket discussion" as I live in a rural area where there are many who commute and also weekenders, both have their economic impact, some good some bad.

I'm also well aware of buckets from my involvement in Alderney which at present is a closed economy in theory except that we're still paying people there to do the garden and service the car and put oil in the central heating tank etc. i.e. money from outside into the bucket, in the meantime island residents are online shopping......

20 years ago on line shopping was barely registering so the game has changed significantly .
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