For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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#1783340
johnm wrote:I have pointed out before that it is unwise to let the perfect be the enemy of the good.


An excellent point.

Good would be for everyone over 70 or with health issues to wear an N95 mask or remain in isolation. Then everyone else can get on with what's left of normal life while washing their hands more often.

But oh, no, here we are pishing about with stupid laws brought in because of politics and human bedwetting group behaviour, not science.
#1783341
There's pretty good evidence that shows wearing masks wears. That this may not fit in some people's narratives does not make the evidence any less valid.

@eltonioni It's not just over 70 yo who succumb to it. The suggestion that you can lock up the older people and the rest of society can get going like before is an illusion.
JAFO liked this
#1783342
FFP3 is wholly unsuitable in this context, it's designed to be part of PPE to protect the wearer.

Of course there was no Parliamentary debate about masks etc, HMG has an 80 seat majority, who is going to make such a debate reach the agenda at this point????
#1783344
eltonioni wrote:
johnm wrote:I have pointed out before that it is unwise to let the perfect be the enemy of the good.


An excellent point.

Good would be for everyone over 70 or with health issues to wear an N95 mask or remain in isolation. Then everyone else can get on with what's left of normal life while washing their hands more often.

But oh, no, here we are pishing about with stupid laws brought in because of politics and human bedwetting group behaviour, not science.


As @Flyin'Dutch' points out, this is nonsense.
PeteSpencer liked this
#1783353
Flyin'Dutch' wrote:There's pretty good evidence that shows wearing masks wears. That this may not fit in some people's narratives does not make the evidence any less valid.

@eltonioni It's not just over 70 yo who succumb to it. The suggestion that you can lock up the older people and the rest of society can get going like before is an illusion.


First off, I'm not a mask denier. Just thought it useful to get that out of the way. ;)

Second, there is very little firm evidence. There are of of opinions and anecdotes about how a mask on a wearer works but that data is so unreproducible in the real world with real people doing real things in real places that the data becomes virtually worthless.

What we do have is data at population level on who is vulnerable - the over 70's and people with health issues.. What we also have is a tool (N95 masks) and methodology (social isolation) to reduce and maybe eliminate risk to the vulnerable.




On a separate note, what's happened here IMO is a new McCarthyism - the virus under the bed. People have been terrified that they are in danger from dangers unknown and unidentifiable, regardless of their actual risk profile. Masks are a very public signifier that an individual is on the right team.

We can not keep the population locked down and terrified of a chimera because that's how really bad **** happens. Even if we put civil liberties aside (god forbid) we have to get back to work because without an economy there is no NHS.

This bird flew months ago. Few people took it seriously enough when it mattered but now the penny has dropped it's too late and they are wetting the bed at the fear of fear itself.
#1783377
eltonioni wrote:...there is very little firm evidence. There are of of opinions and anecdotes about how a mask on a wearer works but that data is so unreproducible in the real world with real people doing real things in real places that the data becomes virtually worthless.


Really?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.21.20128181v1
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340603522_Face_Masks_Against_COVID-19_An_Evidence_Review
https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-07-08-oxford-covid-19-study-face-masks-and-coverings-work-act-now
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200612172200.htm
#1783392
eltonioni wrote:This bird flew months ago. Few people took it seriously enough when it mattered but now the penny has dropped it's too late and they are wetting the bed at the fear of fear itself.

Agree that it ought to have been taken more seriously earlier, but how is it "too late" to _try_ to avoid catching / giving COVID now?
Flyin'Dutch', JAFO, AndyR liked this
#1783397
If you think this is all about facts then a) you don't understand science and b) you don't understand risk and crisis management.

We know that Covid 19 is unusually highly infectious

We know it can be easily picked up from surfaces and that it lives for a considerable time on them.

We know its impact varies between nothing at all and death, with a wide range of minor to life changing injuries in between, we know that in general terms impact tends to be greater on the aged, which is true of many diseases which is why over 60s are encouraged to get flu vaccine for example.

There is no cure

There is little in the way of palliative care

There is no vaccine

So we have a limited range of options all of which are aimed at limiting infection or slowing its progress through the population to avoid health, care and undertaking services being overwhelmed.

Keeping your distance from other folk
Wearing a face covering in enclosed spaces where closer contact with strangers is hard to avoid
Keeping hands clean
Keeping surfaces clean
Wearing full PPE if in close contact professions such as health, care or hairdressing/beauty parlour etc.
Having effective test, track and isolate systems where isolation can become quarantine or even lockdown if the numbers escalate at dangerous rates.

All of the above contributes to the core goal of limiting and slowing infection progression and all of the above have been quickly deployed in a coherent planned fashion in those countries with the most successful outcomes. Successful in this context means virus largely eliminated or being contained through limited localised lock down where flare ups occur as they inevitably will because humans will make mistakes and we still have a virus with the ability to surprise us all.
JAFO, Paul_Sengupta liked this
#1783398
johnm wrote:..

.., HMG has an 80 seat majority, who is going to make such a debate reach the agenda at this point????


There are Opposition Days, but Oppositions tend to try to use these carefully, with subtle wording of the Motion. Motions ideally (for them) will be on issues which have great resonance with the public (or at least with tabloid editors :roll: ) and which might induce some Government backbenchers to abstain on the Government Amendment which will effectively nullify it. But against an 80-seat majority, early in a Parliament (when there is always less 'rebellion') .. And even before then, the Leader of the House has to agree to 'play by the unwritten rules' (with discussion 'through the usual channels'; with Shadow Leader and Whips of minor Parties) to allow the necessary Parliamentary time. Most Leaders in the past usually have, but it's not a given.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_day

</politics nerd>
Flyin'Dutch', johnm liked this
#1783405
JAFO wrote:
eltonioni wrote:...there is very little firm evidence. There are of of opinions and anecdotes about how a mask on a wearer works but that data is so unreproducible in the real world with real people doing real things in real places that the data becomes virtually worthless.


Really?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.21.20128181v1
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340603522_Face_Masks_Against_COVID-19_An_Evidence_Review
https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-07-08-oxford-covid-19-study-face-masks-and-coverings-work-act-now
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200612172200.htm


Yes really. Your data i(the ones I can access) is ancient and/or lacks real day to day context. The recommendation for everyone to wear a face mask to prevent C19 is akin to preventing racism by telling everyone to wear a bag on their head. It's using a howitzer to light a birthday candle. Of course it has an effect.

As I said earlier I am not saying that masks don't have a place. I am saying that it is too late for population wide implementation and other considerations are now more important.

Not too late you say? I forget the precise numbers so forgive gross errors but ISTR that two weeks ago C19 rate was at about 1 in 2000 people. It's now around 1 in 4000 people. By the day people will be required to wear face masks in John Lewis we'll be in placebo territory if you have to hang around at the front door for hours, maybe days, to be in with a chance of meeting someone with C19.

The greater risk now is economic and social - that people don't wear a mask in John Lewis because they aren't physically going to John Lewis, they are using http://www.johnlewis.co.uk instead. Entire supply chains and the economy and taxes that come from them are at risk for the sake of fear alone. There isn't going to be a recognisable NHS if we don't get back to work fast.

The social effects are likely to be even more pernicious. Are we really ready to wear masks until this thing goes away, and then don them again when a nasty bout of flu comes around, because well, y'know it worked last time. Are we prepared for the effect on our individual and collective psyche, or the inevitable and likely violent reaction against it which will follow as surely as night follows day? Sorry, that's not for me and I wouldn't wish it on others.

If you want to wear a face cover then just wear one, fill yer boots!

Personally I'd prefer that the elderly and vulnerable were given supplies of N95 respirator masks instead of requiring people with statistically zero risk to put a random woolly scarf over their mouth for fear of a being arrested, fined and humiliated in Curry's car park.

At the risk of seriously mangling a previous turn of phrase, we're spaffing hundreds of years of hard won civil rights, liberties and personal wealth up the wall with this thing.

Now wash your hands.
#1783421
He doesn’t need to do anything to pay for this it’s all coming from the magic money trees and rightly so.

Pension pots have been supporting a great many businesses round here and online as well as supporting food banks, which have seen record need and will see more.

The whole point about the various containment strategies is to limit both health related and direct economic impact by allowing activity to resume with managed risk.
#1783435
eltonioni wrote:From today's HMG release. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus ... =immediate

Deaths in all settings
Daily 11


That's a month after all shops could reopen and 2-3 weeks since all that hand-wringing about crowds on beaches, in parks, protests, etc. Just saying. :whistle:


I think you will find the no. has been adjusted:

Image

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

UK 138 deaths the next European is at place 19 - Bulgaria with 30.
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