Non aviation content. Play nice – No religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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By kanga
#1737172
I have just watched (and greatly enjoyed, not just as a linguistic self-indulgence :) ) "The last igloo" on BBC 4:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000cr9s

.. in which almost the only person seen and heard is a Greenlandic Inuk hunter on a solo hunting trip. He talks (subtitled!) in a very matter of fact way, without speculating on causes, on how the climate has gone 'crazy' in the last 10 years. The loss of sea ice has made traditional hunting almost impossible, and traditional overland summer sled routes impassible.

Anyway, beautiful scenery, interesting insights into traditional skills and methods, and not polemic - but thought-provoking. Recommended.
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By eltonioni
#1737645
Happy New Year!

A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a 'Siberian' climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.

The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents.

'Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life,' concludes the Pentagon analysis. 'Once again, warfare would define human life.'



https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... heobserver
By johnm
#1737649
S o few people and journalists understand Scenario Planning, pity really we’d make fewer dumb decisions if they did :D
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By PaulB
#1737701
There are already widespread drug shortages. Nothing to do with climate or the B word that we aren't allowed to mention.
By johnm
#1737702
malcolmfrost wrote:Is that the same scenario planning that predicted widespread drug shortages, Kent in gridlock etc. in the event of Brexit?


Scenario Planning doesn't predict anything, it creates scenarios with risks and opportunities that humans then analyse, the goal being to mitigate risks and exploit opportunities. It's used in a very wide range of contexts to try to provide a coherent plan of action in a chaotic environment and so highly relevant in both the topic of this thread and Brexit.
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By malcolmfrost
#1737709
As you say not many understand scenario planning, least of all journalists who want a good/eyecatching headline! There were no doubt many Brexit scenarios explored, only the apocalyptic ones were put forward by the media, just as we aren't experiencing the effects from the Defence department scenarios (yet)!
My other favourite is using false origins on graphs that provide a much more significant effect than in reality.
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By eltonioni
#1737714
"Scenario planning" is a very minor, albeit important thing early on in a major project. We really shouldn't overstress its importance when it comes to delivery in an agile situation because the whole point of good PMing is to avoid chaos, not to have multiple ways to create more of it.

It's nothing new. In my business we have a thing called the Plan of Work, devised by the RIBA half a century ago and you can see the high level scenario planning bit in the top left hand box. Projects (say for example, "climate change mitigation") go wrong when people leave behind the established scope of work and start uncoordinated freestyling on subtasks because they think they can do scenario planning on the hoof all the way through the job.

@johnm I appreciate that you'll completely understand this point but I see so many people who don't in that Dunning Kruger fashion of PMing that we seem to have now in our public institutions. Here's the RIBA PoW for your delectation.
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By johnm
#1737717
@eltonioni Scenario Planning can be used at any phase but it has to be structured carefully.

Scenario planning is usually used to highlight the scope and risk of scope creep in this kind of context. If circumstances change dramatically mid-project a further session of scenario planning can sometimes help. The technique has been around for about 50 years but came to prominence when Shell and St Andrews University started to promote it in the 1980s
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By kanga
#1737765
Carney seems to suggest that major financial institutions should do a bit more, lest the nominal assets on whose long-term value they are counting turn out to be of diminishing worth. I'm not competent to say whether he is right nor whether such institutions are already doing this

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50868717
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By johnm
#1737767
I’m sure that it’s coincidence that Aramco has been floated by the Saudis for a bonkers value :roll:
By Bill Haddow
#1737773
Bill Haddow wrote:
I'm using Roe venison for my traditional Ne'erday steak pie :-D

Bill H


Steak pie now made, topped with Bell's puff pastry. When it has cooled down a bit I'll pop it into the refrigerator and enjoy on Ne'erday.

Bill H
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By Miscellaneous
#1737938
Superb @Bill Haddow, enjoy. :thumright: I forgot to ask the butcher if he did Roe when collecting the turkey. I'm intrigued and I will make an effort to source it.

Meanwhile we will make do with plain old steak pie tomorrow, (apparently its monk fish to see out the year tonight).
By johnm
#1738303
Tony Heller aka Steve Goddard is notorious and the graph he shows about the mass balance is a good case in point:

This is the explanatory text from the Danish metoffice graph he cites in the video

Over the year, it snows more than it melts, but calving of icebergs also adds to the total mass budget of the ice sheet. Satellite observations over the last decade show that the ice sheet is not in balance. The calving loss is greater than the gain from surface mass balance, and Greenland is losing mass at about 200 Gt/yr.
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