[Katamarino]

I'm sure that's true now, but the two gulf wars served to set the scene I think....., but could be wrong.....

I'm pretty sure that "Unrest in the Middle East" precedes the gulf wars, and indeed, precedes the existence of most of Europe!

[johnm]

I'm sure that's true now, but the two gulf wars served to set the scene I think....., but could be wrong.....

I'm pretty sure that "Unrest in the Middle East" precedes the gulf wars, and indeed, precedes the existence of most of Europe!

Well yes, but was reasonably stable until we messed it up by trying to remove dictators and then failing to fill the gap we'd created.

[eltonioni]

Regardless. There are about a dozen a day being picked up on our side, the French are trying to stop them launching or leaving their waters, and it's the worst time of year.

Spin forward to spring with no firm preventive action and it's reasonable to assume that the trickle will become a flood, making the RNLI unsustainable on various fronts from volunteers to funding. People are going to die, and then it becomes a very real crisis.

Seems to me that the only usefulpreventive solution is to make the journey unfulfilled. Since letting people die mid Channel isn't an option perhaps the UK should be made unattractive but viable for genuine asylum seeker, say if processing and claim validation was done on British soil in Cyprus, Ascension, South Georgia, or maybe even by application to the British Embassy in Tehran / Baghdad etc. *Removes tongue from cheek*

[johnm]

Remote processing was mooted sometime ago but didn't go anywhere......

[Sooty25]

I thought the rules of asylum required you to declare yourself in the first friendly country, other than the Nigerian stowaways, I don't see how any of these qualify. Fly them home.

[romille]

We need to make floating across the channel in rubber a dinghy seem like a waste of time by introducing fast track repatriation for everone that is rescued or manages to get to land. I am not heartless but if we don't send a strong message there will be an armada of little rubber boats come spring time. Just a pity that our feckless government will probably not take the right approach.....as usual!

[johnm]

I thought the rules of asylum required you to declare yourself in the first friendly country, other than the Nigerian stowaways, I don't see how any of these qualify. Fly them home.

As always it's quite a complex picture and there's a good and reliable analysis here

[johnm]

We need to make floating across the channel in rubber a dinghy seem like a waste of time by introducing fast track repatriation for everone that is rescued or manages to get to land. I am not heartless but if we don't send a strong message there will be an armada of little rubber boats come spring time. Just a pity that our feckless government will probably not take the right approach.....as usual!

It ain't all that easy...….and the analysis indicates that the UK is coming out of all this relatively unscathed, but the UK govt having made immigration a massive issue is placed in the position where a relatively small problem has to be treated as a major crisis.

[romille]

It ain't all that easy...….and the analysis indicates that the UK is coming out of all this relatively unscathed, but the UK govt having made immigration a massive issue is placed in the position where a relatively small problem has to be treated as a major crisis.

I we do not deal with it propely, it will become a major crisis!

[Miscellaneous]

... where a relatively small problem has to be treated as a major crisis.

John, what criteria are you using to determine it's a relatively small problem?

[johnm]

It ain't all that easy...….and the analysis indicates that the UK is coming out of all this relatively unscathed, but the UK govt having made immigration a massive issue is placed in the position where a relatively small problem has to be treated as a major crisis.

I we do not deal with it propely, it will become a major crisis!

If you look at the facts you'll see that it's a bigger problem in other countries, who are wrestling with it in a range of ways and in some cases it already is a major crisis. The need is to try and tackle it at source and in co-operation with others, but politics right across Europe and the Middle East don't make that easy.

[johnm]

... where a relatively small problem has to be treated as a major crisis.

John, what criteria are you using to determine it's a relatively small problem?

Comparison with the scale of the issue elsewhere in Europe and the Middle East

[eltonioni]

Potential scale from Wikipedia

Eurotunnel, the company that operates the Channel Tunnel, said that it intercepted more than 37,000 migrants between January 2015 and July 2015.

That was in 2015, without a short Channel crossing also looking like a viable option. For what it's worth ISTR about 5000 migrants died in the Med' that year. While some whataboutists prefer to compare it to longstanding domestic problems, this could be a world scale crisis within months if it's not sorted out out quickly.

[romille]

If you look at the facts you'll see that it's a bigger problem in other countries, who are wrestling with it in a range of ways and in some cases it already is a major crisis. The need is to try and tackle it at source and in co-operation with others, but politics right across Europe and the Middle East don't make that easy.

I agree that the illegal immigration problem is much worse in Italy, Greece and other European countries, but a great number of illegal migrants that have arrived southern Europe will be headed in our direction if we do not make it clear that they will be returned to either their county of origin or France on arrival.

[Irv Lee]

and it's the worst time of year.

Ought to be but isn't. I have crossed the official way twice in the past 6 days... mirror-like millpond all week. Water cold yes, air not too cold. So word will spread just in time for conditions to turn and it will get fatal