Non aviation content. Play nice – No religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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By eltonioni
#1707663
As ever, predictions are a mugs game @johnm


In other news ;)

EU countries are secretly wooing Boris Johnson in a bid to thrash out a new Brexit plan that would avoid a no-deal disaster as he prepares to take over as prime minister this week.

Senior Irish politicians and diplomats have held peace talks with two of Johnson’s cabinet allies in recent days.

German and French figures, as well as the Dutch and Belgian governments, have also established contacts with Johnson’s team and signalled an intention to do a deal.

In an article today for The Sunday Times, Simon Coveney, Ireland’s deputy prime minister and minister for foreign affairs, indicates that Dublin is prepared to compromise.

Coveney writes that the withdrawal agreement concluded with Theresa May, which includes the controversial Northern Ireland backstop, is “not up for negotiation”. But he also makes clear that his country wants to avoid a no-deal Brexit at all costs.


“If Britain decides to leave without a deal it would cause huge damage to us all,” he admits in his article.

“A no-deal Brexit will devastate the Northern Irish economy.”

Extending an olive branch to Johnson, he adds: “The goal on our side remains a future relationship between the EU and the UK that makes the backstop unnecessary.”

Geoffrey Cox, the attorney-general, who is helping to devise Johnson’s Brexit plans, met his Irish counterpart, Seamus Woulfe, and the Irish ambassador, Adrian O’Neill, last Monday and made clear that Johnson will pursue a no-deal Brexit unless the EU gives ground.

James Brokenshire, a former Northern Ireland secretary, has also talked to Irish politicians. A source in Johnson’s transition team claimed the Irish are “rethinking their position”. Another suggested that the talks could pave the way for a bilateral deal with Dublin that would render the backstop irrelevant, although Irish sources downplayed that prospect.

Ambassadors from Belgium and Holland last week met Andrea Leadsom, another senior Johnson ally, and signalled a desire to come to a new deal.


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news ... -l8mcq5nzw
By johnm
#1707667
@eltonioni That's not news that's sane people trying to reach an accommodation with masochistic nutters :D It's a bit like a psychiatrist trying to help a self-harming teenager really.
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By PaulB
#1707668
johnm wrote:
eltonioni wrote:Let’s see.



Sound advice, since what happens in a mad world is usually impossible for rational people to predict :D


Indeed.... but it would be interesting to hear @eltonioni's prediction.
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By PaulB
#1707671
What do people think of this quote from Frans Timmermans (who, incidentally speaks perfect English, and additionally got *Lance* Corporal Jones's rank from Dad's Army correct)?

If the only goal of the EU is this market obviously you could think that the German car industry could force the German government to comply with the demands coming out of London, but for Germany the EU is much, much more than a market. It's their destiny, it's not revisiting the horrors of history so even the car industry itself understands that this is fundamentally more important than selling cars to the United Kingdom.


Another thing that I've read is that greater federalism won't happen (or at least if it does it won't happen quickly as the ex-communist countries will veto it)? What's the panel's view on that view? (I can't recall where I read/heard it otherwise I'd have cited the source.)


[Speaking of speaking English, Martin Selmayr also speaks better English than many English people.]
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By eltonioni
#1707672
@PaulB I try not to do predictions Paul (see the post at top of page) but I have consistently said that the solution was basically to reopen the WA and insert a termination clause/date. However, the UK has moved on so I fear that due to the EU not facing up to reality the time for such a simple face saving compromise might have passed. We’ll see.

The Times article above is just what the situation would look like to anyone used to effective negotiating. It’s certainly not anyone doing anyone else any favours even if it’s a bit late in the day.

Personally, if I were Team BoJo I’d play ultra hardball, say “ hmm interesting, we’ll have a think about your suggestions “ and let the clock tick down while committing maximum effort and budget to No Deal planning. It’s not a time for faint hearts, it’s time for clarity.
By johnm
#1707675
eltonioni wrote:
johnm wrote:@eltonioni That's not news that's sane people trying to reach an accommodation with masochistic nutters :D It's a bit like a psychiatrist trying to help a self-harming teenager really.



https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

We're not now and never have been hostages to anyone except possibly the White House...….
By johnm
#1707676
@PaulB I think Timmerman's view is right, it's my own view that the benefits should be considered as social, political and economic and that they are all important and interconnected.

I don't think there's any appetite for a full federal state, the issues around the Euro amongst other things have highlighted the fact that it has some profound implications and will be immensely complicated. The general view seems to be that a federation of independent states co-operating on a wide range of issues is a sensible practical compromise and it'll be a generation or two at least before the possibility of a fully fledged United States of Europe could even be considered, it'll then take years to figure out and agree a model and an implementation plan.
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By Flyin'Dutch'
#1707682
@PaulB

I thought the following quote by Frans Timmermans was much more to the point:

In another interview for the programme, the EU Commission's First Vice-President, Frans Timmermans, said UK ministers were "running around like idiots" when they arrived to negotiate Brexit in 2017.
Mr Timmermans said while he expected a "Harry Potter-like book of tricks" from ministers, instead they were like a character from from Dad's Army.
In an interview in March 2019 with the BBC's Nick Robinson, Mr Timmermans said he found it "shocking" how unprepared the UK team was when it began negotiations.
"We thought they are so brilliant," he said. "That in some vault somewhere in Westminster there will be a Harry Potter-like book with all the tricks and all the things in it to do."
But after seeing the then-Brexit Secretary David Davis - who resigned over his disagreements with the deal - speaking in public, his mind changed.
"I saw him not coming, not negotiating, grandstanding elsewhere [and] I thought, 'Oh my God, they haven't got a plan, they haven't got a plan.'
"That was really shocking, frankly, because the damage if you don't have a plan...
"Time's running out and you don't have a plan. It's like Lance Corporal Jones, you know, 'Don't panic, don't panic!' Running around like idiots."
By Bill Haddow
#1707704
johnm wrote:
The only problem there's ever been is self-seeking idiots in the Conservative and Labour parties.


John, the existence of self-seeking idiots in political parties long pre-dates Brexit, it is pretty much one of the eternal verities !

Bill H
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By johnm
#1707711
Bill Haddow wrote:
johnm wrote:
The only problem there's ever been is self-seeking idiots in the Conservative and Labour parties.


John, the existence of self-seeking idiots in political parties long pre-dates Brexit, it is pretty much one of the eternal verities !

Bill H


I think the modern picture started with Blair and New Labour in the 1990s when ways to get elected became more important than trying to persuade people to vote for a political philosophy. Socialism had been largely been discredited in the 1970s and 80s and the Tories had become dominant and a new kind of opposition was needed. Unfortunately all that Labour could do was to simply reflect what the tabloids got the country to want to hear, it worked and so the Tories took to it too and we've been in a bit of a state ever since.
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By Sooty25
#1707781
johnm wrote:...... The general view seems to be that a federation of independent states co-operating on a wide range of issues is a sensible practical compromise


Yeah, how else could we get 28 nations to agree to disagree with a name like veggieburgers!
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By PaulB
#1707785
Is that really the best you can do when attempting to criticise the EU? Surely there are far larger issues with the EU?

When you Google this (the veggie-burger thing) , you get pages and pages of press hysteria and very little in the way of informed comment.

Does anyone have any official stuff apart from article 17 here which is vague to say the least?

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content ... 69&from=EN

(I know we've done this before, but I can't be bothered looking back)
By johnm
#1707787
Sooty25 wrote:
johnm wrote:...... The general view seems to be that a federation of independent states co-operating on a wide range of issues is a sensible practical compromise


Yeah, how else could we get 28 nations to agree to disagree with a name like veggieburgers!


The same way that we have been debating “inclusive” and “non-discriminatory “ language in the U.K. for decades. No organisation involving people is immune to elements of stupidity and trying to suggest that somehow makes the whole organisation worthless is just silly.

You might just as well suggest breaking up the U.K. because some people insist on referring to “chairmen” as “ chairs” . My wife famously rebuked such an individual when chairing an event by pointing out that she wasn’t a piece of furniture and that “madam chairman “ would do nicely thank you.
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By Sooty25
#1707802
PaulB wrote:Is that really the best you can do when attempting to criticise the EU? Surely there are far larger issues with the EU?

When you Google this (the veggie-burger thing) , you get pages and pages of press hysteria and very little in the way of informed comment.

Does anyone have any official stuff apart from article 17 here which is vague to say the least?

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content ... 69&from=EN

(I know we've done this before, but I can't be bothered looking back)


You've actually hit the nail cleanly on the head. It is a completely trivial and pointless issue, yet the EU appears to have found time to discuss it and MEP's appear to have voted on it.
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