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Re: Neverendum?

PostPosted:Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:35 am
by johnm
@Colonel Panic The scenarios are not mine they have been developed by a number of businesses and HMG. Brexit is unusual in that no-one has come out with one that has significant plausible upsides and that picture remains the same, politically, socially and economically.

Even if the EU were to collapse (and some scenarios ironically consider that the Brexit experience may well strengthen unity) it makes almost no difference whether we are in or out at that time.

Re: Neverendum?

PostPosted:Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:41 am
by Cessna57
John Lewis this morning have announced they are going to just about break even this year.

It looks like it’s going to be “No Bonus” for the first time since 1953.

Funnily enough, the Brexiteers say they want to take the country back to the 50’s, I’m just not sure how many of them were adults in the 50’s and have any idea what that actually means.

Will they rejoice when there’s no food in the shops either?

For clarity, the JL bonus isn’t some large some of money that gets paid to the people at the top, every shop worker, every warehouse operative, everyone gets it, and it makes a difference to people’s lives.


PS. Debenhams are in big trouble. They may go next.

Re: Neverendum?

PostPosted:Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:44 am
by malcolmfrost
John Lewis this morning have announced they are going to just about break even this year.

That has much more to do with:
a) people already having plenty of "stuff"
b) online competition, facilitated at least in part by beneficial tax arrangements introduced in Luxembourg by Juncker and also in Ireland.

Re: Neverendum?

PostPosted:Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:47 am
by Flyin'Dutch'
malcolmfrost wrote:That has much more to do with:
a) people already having plenty of "stuff"
b) online competition, facilitated at least in part by beneficial tax arrangements introduced in Luxembourg by Juncker and also in Ireland.


a) Suddenly?
b) The UK best introduce some tariffs then to stop all of that happening post 29/3!

:roll:

Re: Neverendum?

PostPosted:Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:01 am
by malcolmfrost
Flyin'Dutch' wrote:
malcolmfrost wrote:That has much more to do with:
a) people already having plenty of "stuff"
b) online competition, facilitated at least in part by beneficial tax arrangements introduced in Luxembourg by Juncker and also in Ireland.


a) Suddenly?
b) The UK best introduce some tariffs then to stop all of that happening post 29/3!

:roll:

a) my generation (who have cash to spend) are now losing our parents and inheriting more stuff than we can deal with, so are just buying experiences and consumables like food.
b) Well we will now have the chance!!

Re: Neverendum?

PostPosted:Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:05 am
by Cessna57
People have had lots of “stuff” for a long time, and you’ll notice they all want to buy more of it, continuously!

What they don’t have, and what is going to get worse is that they wont have any money to buy more of this stuff. If you look back at the 80’s, when people had lots of money, they bought lots of “stuff”, if you look back at the 50’s (or post Brexit), when people have no money, they don’t buy “stuff”.

It’s a sort of “state of the nation” indicator, because people always WANT to buy stuff, it just depends if they CAN.

Re: Neverendum?

PostPosted:Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:09 am
by Flyin'Dutch'
malcolmfrost wrote:b) Well we will now have the chance!!


You best tell the folks at teh wheel - they are aiming for a tariff free deal with everyone.

Re: Neverendum?

PostPosted:Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:26 am
by eltonioni
Cessna57 wrote:People have had lots of “stuff” for a long time, and you’ll notice they all want to buy more of it, continuously!

What they don’t have, and what is going to get worse is that they wont have any money to buy more of this stuff. If you look back at the 80’s, when people had lots of money, they bought lots of “stuff”, if you look back at the 50’s (or post Brexit), when people have no money, they don’t buy “stuff”.

It’s a sort of “state of the nation” indicator, because people always WANT to buy stuff, it just depends if they CAN.

The state of the UK retail sector really has nothing to do with Brexit. Taking JL, their annual shopfloor worker bonus used to be worth about a fifth of a year's wages years ago. Last year it was a few hundred quid.

There's a simple test I've used when a large firm conveniently cites Brexit as a reason for their problems, I google their name and "profit warning 2015" and it inevitably tells the historic story about how something else has always been eating their lunch for years, but never poor product, bad management, or changing consumer choices.

John Lewis http://lmgtfy.com/?q=john+lewis+profit+warning+2015
Jaguar Land Rover http://lmgtfy.com/?q=jaguar+land+rover+ ... rning+2015

Re: Neverendum?

PostPosted:Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:55 am
by kanga
Without (as ever) being an advocate here for either 'camp', let alone for any 'subcamp' within either, but purely as a history and politics geek:

I find it wrily amusing that the Speaker has taken decisions which defend the rights of 'ordinary' (non-'payroll') Members against those (ie Ministers) seeking to exercise the 'prerogatives' of the Crown, which has been precisely Speakers' proper role since 16th c, dramatically in 17th c, and established in Acts since 1689. For this he is being excoriated by some tabloids, the ones who advocated 'taking back control', one of which called Supreme Court judges 'enemies of the people' for upholding the sovereignty of Parliament.

When traditional whipping discipline has broken down in both major Parties, it seems reasonable to me that it may be appropriate not to accept sheepishly the 'usual channels' . There are the semicovert discussions by which in 'normal' (whipped) times the Leader of the House and his/her Shadow fix what Motions will be debated, and the exact wording of them and accepted Amendments to them.

Re: Neverendum?

PostPosted:Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:20 pm
by malcolmfrost
People have had lots of “stuff” for a long time, and you’ll notice they all want to buy more of it, continuously!

My daughter hasn't got any room in her small flat to have any more "stuff", despite having some money, she chooses to spend on travel and eating out, neither of which John Lewis do. Despite the currency drop, BA aircraft are flying full or close to all over the world, so many are choosing the same option.

Re: Neverendum?

PostPosted:Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:21 pm
by LowNSlow1
Cessna57 which Brexiteers have said "they want to take the country back to the 50's"?

Re: Neverendum?

PostPosted:Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:37 pm
by PaulB
Colonel Panic wrote:The likes of johnm may despair at the result, but I despair at the way many on here seem incapable to seeing the benefits of both side of the debate.


I'm desperately trying to see both sides of the debate. I think as a natural remainer, it's easy to see what the status quo will look like, and I'd need to be convinced with convincing evidence that a major change would be better. It's really difficult to see through the smoke & mirrors of what the politicians a spout and see benefits that negate (or preferably outweigh) the risks. There are some on the telly as I type.... spouting away.

Some birds have already flown. The UK was one of the European leaders with respect to medicines safety. The EU medicines regulator (EMA) was based in London and worked extremely closely with their UK counterparts at the MHRA. That has gone. The EMA has relocated to Amsterdam. Now, we'll be reliant on Big Pharma submitting their data to the MHRA to obtain the necessary licences. They *may* for commercial reasons choose to launch in Europe first, delaying the launch of new medicines here. Thet *may* use us as a guinea pig.... we just don't know.

There's also something called the falsified medicines directive (FMD) which is an EU initiative to prevent "fake" medicines entering the legitimate supply chain (this has already happened)! UK pharma manufacturers will have to comply with EU rules on this if they want to sell to the EU, but from a purchasing perspective, we will almost certainly lose access to the central data hub. (That's what it's looking like at the moment.)

Re: Neverendum?

PostPosted:Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:55 pm
by Pete L
The medicines one is particularly worrying since so many of our medicines - bought on price from overseas - have only a token license holder above a shop to sue if they start killing people in reasonable numbers. And for slow-to-show problems due to contamination it could take years to show.

I was staggered that sensible political pressure hadn't stopped HMG buying from Teva but some the alternatives are worse.

Re: Neverendum?

PostPosted:Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:57 pm
by Pete L
The speaker is repaying perceived slights from his time in the Monday Club - perhaps as an infiltrator and perhaps not. Either way fairly unpleasant in personal terms.

Although in this case I think he made the right choice.

Re: Neverendum?

PostPosted:Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:01 pm
by Pete L
Flyin'Dutch' wrote:
malcolmfrost wrote:That has much more to do with:
a) people already having plenty of "stuff"
b) online competition, facilitated at least in part by beneficial tax arrangements introduced in Luxembourg by Juncker and also in Ireland.


a) Suddenly?
b) The UK best introduce some tariffs then to stop all of that happening post 29/3!

:roll:


So please justify why Luxembourg is permitted lower tax rates and gain benefits of EU membership. The island defence is hardly valid in Luxembourg's case, and if it miraculously became a basket case because of insufficient funds, the EU would give it structural money.