Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:40 am
#1616013
RBS is now a profitable asset, but what return does the government get out of it compared to what use they can put that cash to (which I would suggest would be debt retirement of expensive debt they may still have - that would give a better return).
The question also is how long before you deploy the cash for better taxpayer use. Looking at the share price here: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/RBS.L?p=RBS.L, and click on any time period up to 5 years, you will see it has been a long time and the share price has never been close to the £5-ish required to break even (the captial injection, not to mention other costs such as the the operation of UK Finance, etc).
Also, ring fencing is due to kick in soon, which will hamper the ability of the non-ring fenced bank (i.e. the investment bank), which seems to be on an upward path) to finance itself, cheaply, anyway. So even looking optimistically, the share price may grow over a period of time, but will it outstrip the (perceived) value of redeploying that government capital over that period of time? There are still art grants to distribute, welfare payments to be made, police to be paid, military, education, roads, etc. [edit] Remember, RBS has had its broken legs fixed and is standing on its own two feet again.. and this has always been the prerequisite for the government planning its exit strategy [/edit]
Don't forget, they are keeping a vast majority of their stake (and the outright shares).. There are (perceived?) political and business reasons why governments should not own banks (other than central ones - but even they have to be independent).
For me, it's weighing up all those things... In governments we trust, so I am sure they are doing the right thing
The question also is how long before you deploy the cash for better taxpayer use. Looking at the share price here: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/RBS.L?p=RBS.L, and click on any time period up to 5 years, you will see it has been a long time and the share price has never been close to the £5-ish required to break even (the captial injection, not to mention other costs such as the the operation of UK Finance, etc).
Also, ring fencing is due to kick in soon, which will hamper the ability of the non-ring fenced bank (i.e. the investment bank), which seems to be on an upward path) to finance itself, cheaply, anyway. So even looking optimistically, the share price may grow over a period of time, but will it outstrip the (perceived) value of redeploying that government capital over that period of time? There are still art grants to distribute, welfare payments to be made, police to be paid, military, education, roads, etc. [edit] Remember, RBS has had its broken legs fixed and is standing on its own two feet again.. and this has always been the prerequisite for the government planning its exit strategy [/edit]
Don't forget, they are keeping a vast majority of their stake (and the outright shares).. There are (perceived?) political and business reasons why governments should not own banks (other than central ones - but even they have to be independent).
For me, it's weighing up all those things... In governments we trust, so I am sure they are doing the right thing