For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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#1610793
Threat is of new entrants from China etc. alongside tech companies. History is full of companies that struggled to keep up when their skills and investment were locked into a technology and they tried to stretch the glide for too long and didn't respond quickly and early enough to change and/or tried to protect their legacy investments for too long.

It's not just about the investment in plant and machinery to make ICEs, but also the culture and assumptions of the company across the board. Dealership culture seems to be focussed on legacy customers, tech. and methods. The sales people in the dealership need to be excited and they need to reflect their excitement in every customer encounter.

A lot of jobs and industries are at risk. Some jobs may not exist in the future at all. Trick is to recognise the trends and start up or change at the right time. Miners and cotton mill workers don't have a monopoly on losing their jobs and industry.
karlbown liked this
#1610856
Why would I want to preserve a car that pollutes, is expensive to drive and maintain, and whose value will be depreciating to nothing in the next 3-4 years? Compared with a cleaner, cheaper to run and more reliable electric vehicle?

I tell you what Steve, you can have all the ice cars over the next few years. How’s that? Or maybe just have a thought to the future at some point in your postings?

EVs are here, they’re going to completely dominate the auto industry, and car companies that, like you, put their fingers in their ears and pretend it’s not happening deserve to shut down, same as any industry.
Leodisflyer liked this
#1610871
My next dilemma is what to replace our family Qashqai with when it's 3-year PCP runs out in December. I think we'll probably lease something similar but in Petrol (or Petrol-Hybrid, but not plug-in) as I strongly think the first phase in pushing people away from ICEs will be to hike tax on diesel.
#1610879
Thanks Jonathan. Will have a look at that video a little later. Looks as though it deserves some time to watch it.

It occurs that if your current business model is heavily focussed on old technology then there is not a lot of incentive to quickly shift the focus if you think that the mass availability of new technology is constrained by supply and supporting infrastructure.

The problem with that s that, if you are producing a product that is usable for 15-20 year,s then consumers can just decide to continue to use their existing old kit until new kit is available. Especially if your product is one that is people's biggest investment other than their home and is already typified by large depreciation.

It only takes a few changes in the market for mass adoption/demand to suddenly happen and its a brave person who bets their business on getting the timing right and sitting it out with a daily management focus on the old tech. You'd want to, at the very least, be building a brand in that space.
#1610882
The curve and the video are very interesting. As others have said in markets and technology it's always going to be better to embrace disruptive change rather than pretend it isn't happening or resist the inevitable.

I have suggested before that the transition from horses and carts to ICE is quite a good analogy for the transition from ICE to EV.

The critical issue is the power resources for charging electric vehicles. Overnight at home may not be too much of a problem and may be helped by neighbourhood and domestic solar and wind power. But where is the juice for fast charging at "filling stations" coming from?
#1610891
johnm wrote:But where is the juice for fast charging at "filling stations" coming from?


If the UK was not ruled by the 'Cons'by now a larger proportion would come from renewable sources....

:D
#1610911
Flyin'Dutch' wrote:If the UK was not ruled by the 'Cons'by now a larger proportion would come from renewable sources.... :D

In that respect north of the border is ruled by the cons, aka SNP, and as far as I can assess the extent of the 'renewable' energy here is very much a con. A 100% objective by 2020 is very much on target. And how ugly it makes the landscape.

Be careful what you wish for.

Oh, and charging points are still rather thin on the ground!
#1610914
The good news is whatever government is in power the reducing cost of renewable energy will encourage energy companies to continue to invest in renewables due to market forces.

Now oil companies can generate energy cheaper with solar panels and wind farms (despite the lower government subsidies for these than any fossil fuel) then the writing is clearly on the wall.

Personally I use the sun to generate my own electric and hot water. Everyone should try it :-)

Flyin'Dutch' wrote:
johnm wrote:But where is the juice for fast charging at "filling stations" coming from?


If the UK was not ruled by the 'Cons'by now a larger proportion would come from renewable sources....

:D
#1610917
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. Omfg. Not like those pretty nuclear and coal fired stations then lol.

You were joking right?


Miscellaneous wrote:
Flyin'Dutch' wrote:If the UK was not ruled by the 'Cons'by now a larger proportion would come from renewable sources.... :D

In that respect north of the border is ruled by the cons, aka SNP, and as far as I can assess the extent of the 'renewable' energy here is very much a con. A 100% objective by 2020 is very much on target. And how ugly it makes the landscape.

Be careful what you wish for.

Oh, and charging points are still rather thin on the ground!
#1610919
Miscellaneous wrote:Oh, and charging points are still rather thin on the ground!


Not sure what you mean by this? My house has dozens of charging points in it already, as does almost every home in the UK. No real shortage is there? Or do you mean commercial ones where a more joined-up, better organised system would certainly lead to more confidence for potential ev buyers
#1610920
Nope, no joke.

a) I don't buy the claimed green credentials of said energy.

b) wind farm upon wind farm upon wind farm is sore on the eyes and has negative impact on the very environment we claim to be saving. As for pumped hydro stations, I'd like to see the true green output figures.

'tis a con! :wink:

Interesting thread, I think mass EVs are much further off than many predict, but then that may be as a consequence of where I live?

As for a contributor suggesting self drive cars are a few years off, I am of the opinion I will be lucky to see them as mass market in my lifetime.

Not sure what you mean by this? My house has dozens of charging points in it already, as does almost every home in the UK. No real shortage is there? Or do you mean commercial ones where a more joined-up, better organised system would certainly lead to more confidence for potential ev buyers

I'd certainly help anyone out who was inadvertently in a pickle, I think I would draw the line at offering my home supply to anyone needing a top up.
#1610924
Miscellaneous wrote:Nope, no joke.

a) I don't buy the claimed green credentials of said energy.


Not really sure what I can say about this. If you don’t think it’s greener to get solar or wind generated electricity to a socket than get petrol to a supermarket then I think you’re missing something.

Did you realise for example that more oil is used getting petrol to a forecourt than is actually delivered?

I agree about self driving cars though. The next few years will see increasing assistance, but just letting cars drive themselves will take much longer to get traction (sorry for the pun!)
#1610929
https://evtripplanner.com/planner/2-8/?id=cn5pvxfa
is a useful resource, by default it shows the Tesla superchargers (which the car will only route you to if they are unoccupied) but if you plan a route and tick the box on the bottom right it will show the other chargers.
Tesla's official version as fitted in the cars is here https://www.tesla.com/trips
I honestly believe that the new generation of EVs, the Leaf 2 and Tesla 3 have the range capability to move into the mainstream, our trip last night was 90 miles return, easily within the range of both cars, especially as we would be starting at home fully charged.
I don't have the stats but I'm willing to bet that fewer than 10% of all journeys would require a charge enroute or at destination.
Flyin'Dutch' liked this
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