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Just caught up with the new year news from Fully Charged and it's interesting to note that the FT thinks we passed the peak sales of ICE cars in 2018! https://www.ft.com/content/62506c24-0aa ... db36967cfc

The article is paywalled. What's the basis for that suggestion?

Rob P

Difficult to know whether the fall in ICE cars is down to the move towards EV or (more likely, I suggest) down to economic cycles and people sitting on their hands until they feel more confident. The switch to WLTP won't have helped deliveries either in the short term.

I still remember being told during Geography A Level in 1976 that the world had reached Peak Oil (production).

That's odd, I just googled for "peak combustion engine car sales" and clicked straight through.

If anyone here thinks that someone in the developing world (ie anywhere that isnt N America or west Europe) is going to buy an EV in preference to an ICE then they are sorely mistaken...

You sure about that?

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/03/ch ... es-report/

skydriller wrote:If anyone here thinks that someone in the developing world (ie anywhere that isnt N America or west Europe) is going to buy an EV in preference to an ICE then they are sorely mistaken...

Maybe people are holding off EV purchases as the Tesla 3 with much better range than the current offerings is imminent?

Maybe people are holding off, because, for all models, something with a better range and faster charging is *always* imminent?

Edited to add, I bought my current car thinking that the next one would be an EV. I didn't think I'd still have it ten years later!

karlbown wrote:You sure about that?
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/03/ch ... es-report/

Hmmm....3 %.... and figures from "EV obsession"...

So 97% decided that an ICE was a better solution

Regards, SD..

For what it’s worth - I hired a Toyota Camry hybrid in NZ recently and the fuel consumption was more than a normal ICE outfit. 5.4 litres/100Km. No advantage.

Once the battery has discharged and is being recharged by the engine that will be the case. The Economy figures used to be done starting from a full charge which isn't really representative.

As an aside as you mention fuel efficiency:

We have noticed that the average fuel consumption of my partners Diesel ( ) BMW 1 series has increased from ~5ltr/100km to ~6ltr/100km since the new 80km/hr speed limit has been introduced in France...

Regards, SD..

And 3% (and rising) preferred an EV. Which is completely contrary to what you suggested. China is a huge market for EVs, and the sales are constantly rising in double digit percentages every year (sometimes triple digit percentages)

skydriller wrote:

karlbown wrote:You sure about that?
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/03/ch ... es-report/

Hmmm....3 %.... and figures from "EV obsession"...

So 97% decided that an ICE was a better solution

Regards, SD..

skydriller wrote:If anyone here thinks that someone in the developing world (ie anywhere that isnt N America or west Europe) is going to buy an EV in preference to an ICE then they are sorely mistaken...

karlbown wrote:And 3% (and rising) preferred an EV. Which is completely contrary to what you suggested.

97% bought ICE in China... So how am I wrong exactly?

EVs have a market for sure, but they are not for all yet and will not be in developing countries for a lot longer than in developed countries.
(I hate to say this, but do you visit developing countries - and not just the city? If you did you would understand)

Regards, SD..

skydriller wrote:As an aside as you mention fuel efficiency:

We have noticed that the average fuel consumption of my partners Diesel ( ) BMW 1 series has increased from ~5ltr/100km to ~6ltr/100km since the new 80km/hr speed limit has been introduced in France...

Regards, SD..

Max efficiency of an ICE car is typically around 55mph - will vary 10mph either side of that depending on engine, tyres, aerodynamic drag etc.
A smaller, more aerodynamic car with bigger engine (so needs more fuel to idle) will typically be more efficient at a higher speed.