Propwash wrote:With all due respect, Kanga, a lot of people don't take too much notice of Parris. As for his option: panic, what have we done? Well good luck to any PM who runs with that. If anything I sense that support for leaving the EU has hardened since the referendum.
One day that message will get through to the Metropolitan commentariate like Parris and Toynbee.
er, I am genuinely puzzled by this response. To gist my above even more briefly:
Parris postulated plausible scenarios of the 'negotiating outcome' and implications thereof for an incumbent UK PM:
1. Coherent deal offered by EUC/EU27, acceptable to UKG and UK population, PM wins in HoC
2. Coherent deal, unacceptable to UKG and/or population:
2a: panic in UKG and/or popular mood; outcome for PM uncertain
2b: defiance, led by PM, PM wins
3. No coherent deal because EUC/EU27 cannot agree: outcome for PM uncertain
It was only of #3 that Parris suggested the plausibility was at the moment being underestimated. He was not actually forecasting any of the others, let alone that any PM should 'run with' 2a (whatever that means); rather perhaps, that if 2a were
to happen, it might 'run with' a somewhat hapless PM (through Ministerial dissent, Party indiscipline, change in and/or media popular sentiment). Is 2a utterly implausible ? Is anything, these days ?
In any case, I am not sure that the (im)partiality or (un)likeability of Parris for 'a lot of people' has any bearing on whether his judgement of the absolute or relative plausibility of any of the above should be more or less credible.
Also, I'm a bit puzzled why someone who AIUI still lives in the rural Derbyshire area which he used to represent in HoC is part of a 'metropolitan' anything, nor why he should be judged so out of touch that some already to others self-evident truth will eventually 'get through' to him. Or is the fact that a national newspaper commissions a weekly political column from him sufficient proof of his ignorance in this context ?
[Nor, indeed, of the relevance, in this context, of Toynbee.]
As ever, genuinely interested in any elucidation available. I freely admit that I am not competent to judge the plausibility of any of the above.