For help, advice and discussion about stuff not related to aviation. Play nice: no religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
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#1853446
I haven't been reading this thread, so I've missed some 240 pages of information. But...

johnm wrote:Cases still growing exponentially, but much lower rate of hospital admissions thus far. So looks like the biggest risk at the moment here in the UK is the emergence of a new variant that the vaccines can't handle well.


From a week ago:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57441677

And of 42 deaths in people with Delta variant infections, 23 were unvaccinated and seven had received only one dose. The other 12 had received two doses more than two weeks before.

Charles Hunt wrote:I thought I heard today that even though the delta variant is more transmissible, in most cases it is no worse than 'flu.


From above:

Analysis of hospital admission rates suggests people infected by the Delta variant are twice as likely to end up in hospital than those with Alpha.
Last edited by Paul_Sengupta on Thu Jun 17, 2021 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
johnm liked this
#1853546
kanga wrote:Latest Sydney outbreak linked to driver for international flight crews...


Sydney airline crew driver's strain of Delta variant genomically linked to US:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-17/ ... /100223120
#1853555
eltonioni wrote:In other words - what's the exit strategy now we have vaccines? I happen to think we're there - it's all over bar the shouting.


Cases:

17-6-2021 11,007
10-6-2021 7,393
03-06-2021 5,274
27-05-2021 3,542
20-05-2021 2,874
13-05-2021 2,657
06-05-2021 2,613
30-04-2021 2,381

Another week, another huge jump in cases. That's a heck of a lot of shouting still to do in my book.
#1853634
Although there is no reason to be complacent, the numbers can hide a lot of things. For example, a big rise in surge testing in Delta hotspots will inevitably throw up increased case numbers. Without knowing the spread by age category, and by that I don't mean a simplistic over / under 60 analysis, and without knowing asymptomatic numbers, it is hard to assess the likely impact of this big increase in case numbers.

Although hospital admissions and totals are showing a definite increase, the numbers of deaths are still fluctuating at a low base level. If average flu deaths are 20,000 a year, that is some 50 plus per day. Way above current covid deaths. And even the increase in hospital admissions is from a much lower base than before.

It strikes me the government is doing the right thing here. Extend measures to give time to assess the real impact of the increasing case numbers, and assess risk implications of this new variant. Meanwhile, press on hard with the vaccination programme into the younger age groups to further lower the already much lower risk profile. And I hope to see approval shortly to vaccinate teenagers to reduce the disruption in schools.

We do, though, have to accept this will be with us for years to come. We can all play a part by continuing simple hygiene precautions, although my own observation is that these are starting to slip by the wayside. However, the economy simply can't carry on as is without severe problems, so we are all going to have to adapt to the new reality.

I remain cautiously optimistic, but with a wary eye.
johnm, JAFO liked this
#1853637
There is one major reason to worry about case numbers and we've rehearsed this before. The more cases the greater the chance of another mutation and the higher the risk of a variant that defeats the vaccines. This is what is exercising the scientific community and causing them to urge caution and try to keep case numbers under control.
#1853639
JAFO wrote:Cases:

17-6-2021 11,007
...
30-04-2021 2,381


So what?

See Paul's answer above for a more fulsome response, although I personally think that restrictions should be ended for everyone except over 60's and PF Syndrome sufferers. :P


Meanwhile, in Israel: https://www.jpost.com/health-science/co ... ing-671354
#1853644
johnm wrote:There is one major reason to worry about case numbers and we've rehearsed this before. The more cases the greater the chance of another mutation and the higher the risk of a variant that defeats the vaccines. This is what is exercising the scientific community and causing them to urge caution and try to keep case numbers under control.


I think it is inevitable that there will be mutations that the current vaccines can't defeat as effectively. I forsee annual tweaks to the vaccines, and a booster programme for the higher risk groups, probably to be combined into a single shot with the annual flu shots currently offered.
johnm liked this
#1853647
A simple observation made during a weekend away to see the grandchildren ( which we hadn’t seen in eighteen months or so) - when out to grab some fish n’ chips. The people serving wore masks but constantly adjusted them with their bare hands and carried on handling food. Needless to say, I dropped out of the queue and went on my merry way. Look out for this kind of thing - you’ll see it all the time.
JAFO liked this
#1853649
I agree that a long term control strategy as with flu is going to be needed....... I expect that is being developed now with a view to implementation over the autumn and winter.

The critical issue is that Covid is way more transmissible than flu and the impact has a much broader spectrum, so it's a harder problem to solve.

I suspect mask wearing will be with us for a long time in enclosed spaces such as stadia, theatres and concert halls. A small price to pay IMHO. Pubs and Night Clubs, God alone knows......

I am not as paranoid as @Bill McCarthy and so far I have not had any probs even before vaccination. I would have thought that the risk of transmission through that route was low, but I'll be interested in the medics view.
Paultheparaglider liked this
#1853666
I thought there was a revelation a few weeks back that there were practically no cases of direct physical transmission, and that inexplicably a lung infection was transmitted by aerosols, not droplets that conveniently gravitated inside a 1m radius.

That was when the three word message changed to grace, space and pace, or whatever it is we have now.
#1853674
JAFO wrote:
eltonioni wrote:I personally think that restrictions should be ended for everyone except over 60's and PF Syndrome sufferers.


Luckily you're not in charge.

You edited this bit out > :P . I might not have been entirely serious on that occasion. :thumright:



The thing is, if instead of a pointless and ineffective lock down of the entire nation back in March last year we had quarantined the elderly and vulnerable we would not have had the death toll we've seen.

It might feel unfair to those groups watching everyone else going to the pub while they stay indoors waiting for the next free Waitrose delivery, but life is unfair sometimes, and not half as unfair as a needless death. The upside is that the rest of the population would have got on with something that resembled normality with little to no effect on the NHS or the nation's finances and our children wouldn't have suffered what will be life-changing damaged education and social development... and we haven't even begun reaping the rewards of virtually shutting the NHS for everything but Covid for a year.
Charles Hunt, flybymike liked this
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