Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:32 am
Although there is no reason to be complacent, the numbers can hide a lot of things. For example, a big rise in surge testing in Delta hotspots will inevitably throw up increased case numbers. Without knowing the spread by age category, and by that I don't mean a simplistic over / under 60 analysis, and without knowing asymptomatic numbers, it is hard to assess the likely impact of this big increase in case numbers.
Although hospital admissions and totals are showing a definite increase, the numbers of deaths are still fluctuating at a low base level. If average flu deaths are 20,000 a year, that is some 50 plus per day. Way above current covid deaths. And even the increase in hospital admissions is from a much lower base than before.
It strikes me the government is doing the right thing here. Extend measures to give time to assess the real impact of the increasing case numbers, and assess risk implications of this new variant. Meanwhile, press on hard with the vaccination programme into the younger age groups to further lower the already much lower risk profile. And I hope to see approval shortly to vaccinate teenagers to reduce the disruption in schools.
We do, though, have to accept this will be with us for years to come. We can all play a part by continuing simple hygiene precautions, although my own observation is that these are starting to slip by the wayside. However, the economy simply can't carry on as is without severe problems, so we are all going to have to adapt to the new reality.
I remain cautiously optimistic, but with a wary eye.