Non aviation content. Play nice – No religion, no politics and no axe grinding please.
  • 1
  • 551
  • 552
  • 553
  • 554
  • 555
  • 577
User avatar
By eltonioni
#1712487
UpThere wrote:
eltonioni wrote:Were you the only one who didn't get the note from Her Majesty's Government in 2016 telling you that the UK would go to hell in a handcart if the country voted to Leave?

I think that people are cleverer than you think they are and they understand that some things might have negative consequences as well as opportunities. Most people live their life like that and make decisions accordingly.

We haven't left yet!

Why, if people are cleverer than I think, so knew that they were voting for a no-deal Brexit, were leading Brexiteers making the following promises during the referendum?

“Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market.” - Daniel Hannan

"Only a madman would actually leave the Market" - Owen Paterson MP, Vote Leave backer

"Wouldn't it be terrible if we were really like Norway and Switzerland? Really? They're rich. They're happy. They're self-governing" - Nigel Farage, Ukip leader

"The Norwegian option, the EEA option, I think that it might be initially attractive for some business people" - Matthew Elliot, Vote Leave chief executive

"Increasingly, the Norway option looks the best for the UK" - Arron Banks, Leave.EU founder

Your ability to rewrite history does you no favours!


Ah, fair enough, you WERE the only person in the country who didn't get the memo from HMG before the Referendum.

Better late than never, here you go. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/ ... nes-speech

User avatar
By OCB
#1712492
riverrock wrote: Me and any children we have will be able to go through the EU queue, she'll be stuck waiting in the long "other" queue.
I wonder what will happen when I try to return into the UK with a British passport in the "British" queue, while having left, going into the EU with an Irish one in the EU queue....



I do the opposite for now - come into the UK with my Belgian passport, leave with my British one. I know it’s probably completely pointless, but I’d like to think some Home Office database keeps getting a “+1 Belgian”, that’s not balanced by a “-1 Belgian” when I leave . I do it purely for childish reasons :wink:
johnm, JAFO, treborsnave and 3 others liked this
By johnm
#1712506
@eltonioni That video of the speeches has done the rounds and it's quite interesting.

The tone of the piece was surprisingly ambiguous as it wasn't entirely clear whether the impact under discussion related to the vote or the actual consequences of leaving.

The only immediate impact once the initial shock of the vote had passed was the collapse of the pound. As far as I can recall that wasn't mentioned. Otherwise people quickly realised that from a practical point of view it was still business as usual and so nothing much happened.

Since then we've had a small economic boost partly as a result of the expenditure on contingency planning and damage limitation and from the last quarter's figures it may be that we're seeing the end of that and the impact of the next stage beginning to kick in. As @kanga points out "interesting times".

But there's still no sign of robust opportunities........
User avatar
By eltonioni
#1712513
johnm wrote:@eltonioni That video of the speeches has done the rounds and it's quite interesting.

The tone of the piece was surprisingly ambiguous as it wasn't entirely clear whether the impact under discussion related to the vote or the actual consequences of leaving.

He isn't at all ambiguous. The Treasury analysis document (which I am sure you are familiar with) which he is presenting isn't ambiguous either and I have linked it here many times before. Here it is again - it's in the Foreword.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... eu_web.pdf

The analysis in this document comes to a clear central conclusion: a vote to leave
would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy
. That shock would
push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around
500,000, GDP would be 3.6% smaller, average real wages would be lower, inflation
higher, sterling weaker, house prices would be hit and public borrowing would rise
compared with a vote to remain.

These findings sit within the range of what is now an overwhelming weight of published
estimates for this short-term impact, which all find that UK GDP would be lower
following a vote to leave.

The analysis also presents a downside scenario, finding that the shock could be much
more profound, meaning the effect on the economy would be worse still. The rise in
uncertainty could be amplified, the volatility in financial markets more tumultuous, and
the extent of the impact to living standards more acute. In this severe scenario, GDP
would be 6% smaller, there would be a deeper recession, and the number of people
made unemployed would rise by around 800,000 compared with a vote to remain. The
hit to wages, inflation, house prices and borrowing would be larger. There is a credible
risk that this more acute scenario could materialise.


Hell in a handcart, and it is either all lies or all wrong. You are right not to trust politicians, you're just tilting at the wrong ones.
User avatar
By UpThere
#1712514
eltonioni wrote:
UpThere wrote:Your ability to rewrite history does you no favours!

Ah, fair enough, you WERE the only person in the country who didn't get the memo from HMG before the Referendum.

Of course I got that memo, and I put it unread into the bin, along with all such propaganda. I don't need any advice from the champions of austerity about the benefits of being a member of the EU, because I've enjoyed them for nearly half a century.

I note that you choose to ignore the list of statements from leading Brexiteers which can only be interpreted as no deal not being on the table for the referendum. That's why you are rewriting history.
User avatar
By eltonioni
#1712517
UpThere wrote:
eltonioni wrote:
UpThere wrote:Your ability to rewrite history does you no favours!

Ah, fair enough, you WERE the only person in the country who didn't get the memo from HMG before the Referendum.

Of course I got that memo, and I put it unread into the bin, along with all such propaganda. I don't need any advice from the champions of austerity about the benefits of being a member of the EU, because I've enjoyed them for nearly half a century.

I note that you choose to ignore the list of statements from leading Brexiteers which can only be interpreted as no deal not being on the table for the referendum. That's why you are rewriting history.


What of those quotes from "leading Brexiters"? They are either out of context, pre Referendum, from politicians who have no particular authority on the topic, or all three. Why should I or anyone else take any notice of them if you don't take in the words of the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Prime Minister? I'm just a bit shocked that you didn't quote Liam Fox's "should be the easiest trade deal in history" line too. :)
By johnm
#1712523
I don’t take much note of politicians most of the current generation are beneath contempt. I do take a view on forecasts, scenarios and logic, then I consider what to do.

I am very odd and not only in this respect. :D

In this case I did the above and still do. I also consulted my kids because, as I’ve said before, it’s their future primarily.

Through all of this there has been nothing whatsoever to make Brexit a positive way forward. Even today the few opportunities tabled fail scrutiny.

Brexit cleverly justifies its position by finding relatively trivial fault with the EU and mercilessly exploiting people’s prejudices.

All of the risks are simply written off as project fear, this is even more cunning because they know that businesses and some individuals will be working hard on contingency planning in an effort to mitigate those risks.

In the meantime we look set to lose the four freedoms, make doing business harder or even impossible, risk the GFA and the return of NI problems and lower standards in the U.K. as a sop to the US and less scrupulous businesses.
UpThere, Flyin'Dutch' liked this
By Bill McCarthy
#1712527
The more I hear about the German economy and Italy being a basket case, the more I think a deal will be offered to save EU banks.
By Cowshed
#1712528
Just bought some Euros (admittedly in the high street, so average touristy rates) - the exchange rate works out at 1.038 Euros to the pound. Bargain!

It will be 'interesting' seeing what happens to GBP leading up to the 31st October and beyond.
User avatar
By OCB
#1712537
Cowshed wrote:Just bought some Euros (admittedly in the high street, so average touristy rates) - the exchange rate works out at 1.038 Euros to the pound. Bargain!

It will be 'interesting' seeing what happens to GBP leading up to the 31st October and beyond.


might be more interesting to watch the derivatives (futures and options) for the major GBP pairs from now till late Sept - and their related commitment of trader (COT) reports. Need to check the dates, but probably by the last Friday in September the “markets” will have decided - whether they are right or wrong!
User avatar
By Flyin'Dutch'
#1712550
User avatar
By jerry_atrick
#1712553
Blimey... I haven't been on this thread for what must be at least 75 pages.. or more.. And the same old carp is being spurt out from both sides.. I particularly like this one:

UpThere wrote:
eltonioni wrote:Were you the only one who didn't get the note from Her Majesty's Government in 2016 telling you that the UK would go to hell in a handcart if the country voted to Leave?

I think that people are cleverer than you think they are and they understand that some things might have negative consequences as well as opportunities. Most people live their life like that and make decisions accordingly.

We haven't left yet!

Why, if people are cleverer than I think, so knew that they were voting for a no-deal Brexit, were leading Brexiteers making the following promises during the referendum?

“Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market.” - Daniel Hannan

"Only a madman would actually leave the Market" - Owen Paterson MP, Vote Leave backer

"Wouldn't it be terrible if we were really like Norway and Switzerland? Really? They're rich. They're happy. They're self-governing" - Nigel Farage, Ukip leader

"The Norwegian option, the EEA option, I think that it might be initially attractive for some business people" - Matthew Elliot, Vote Leave chief executive

"Increasingly, the Norway option looks the best for the UK" - Arron Banks, Leave.EU founder

Your ability to rewrite history does you no favours!


Er... I am struggling to see exactly what promises were made.. These are all statements of opinion - not what will happen... save the first one who is a MEP and therefore doesn't even have a say in domestic parliament.. And this this the rub - the campaign was just that - the campaign... It wasn't anyone running for office and if they got in they would do x, y or z.

There appears to have been misleading statements from both sides (still waiting for the actual figure that *could* be put to the NHS per week if it were decided to use all the "savings"; and the economic armageddon on the economy predicted after a simple out vote didn't materialise - the economic issues are at present being attributed to uncertainty more than anything else)..

What I would like from both sides is.. well.. fact or at least well researched quantitative analysis. For example, both the leave and remain camps agreed on one thing - in the short to medium term (whatever length of time that actually means) we will be economically worse off. But really, is there an estimate by how much?

I mean food shortages... The UK is one of the biggest food manufacturers.. Surely any slack in loss of exports could be foisted on an unsuspecting local market? If I can't have my buffalo mozzerella (sp?), then I wil have to do with West Country goats sheese of some sort. I will live - unlike those starving across the world. Will not being in the EU affect the supply of avacodos from Israel (yes.. no doubt it will affect the supply from Spain). And what about my bananas from the Carribean, my Oranges from wherever they come from, my rough red from Aussie land and my soft sauvignon blanc from kiwi land.. I just relaised, my amber fluid of choice is Peroni.. better start resetting the tastebuds..

What is the actual amount of food we consume that comes from the EU? How much more will my Welsh lamb cost? My British Bacon (yes, I know a lot of dutch pork gets sold in the UK - butI buy British. And since the guvmint doesn't get customs duty from EU stuff now, do they need to slap on duties - or could they hold off or have a seriously low rate as the income isn't flowing onto their coffers at the moment? And we are getting some such sum of money in savings, to boot! So the cost will be the extra time to get the stocks from the continent to here. Over millions of packes of bacon, I am not sure how much that will add.

How much per pack of bacon, per car, etc extra will it cost me... and for how long?

I read something a few pages back about a secret plot to even up the balance of trade between Britain and the US.. We seen to export a lot to the US and not import much in return. That is OK.. but so what if we start importing more from the US.. It doesn't mean we will be exporting less (in fact under a FTA, we may even export more).. But if we import more, will we go into [more] debt to do cover the imports, or will we divert our spending from EU (and possibly other countries)? There is only so much demand and so much cash/credit in the economy. We may end up driving in inferior technology and more gas guzling cars (Tesla excepted); unwittingly eathing bleached chicken in our Mc Donalds chicken burger and of course, eating a lot more GM... again unittingly. That, to me, is bad and I would like to think our guvmint would at least ensure (and enforce) labelling laws so that we could make an educated choice - but my guess is I am going to have to grow my own chickens and keep eye on them lest the chlorine man tries to adulterate them as I slaughter them. And I am not drinking Budweiser or Coors - period (Killions Red, bottled, is a different proposition altogether).

Of course, the Brexiteers say, "No worries, mate.. If it doesn't all work out, we can just rejoin. Job done!". Well, it aint that simple; we may have become an economic basket case - and therefore don't meet the criteria. We may lose all those lovely derogations we managed to obtain (some Dutch leader remarked something allong the lines of "When they were in, they wanted out; now they are out, they want in"; I know we are not out.. but it was a little funny. That net £360m we pay a week (or whatever it really is) may well grow to be a significant amount more; after all if you drop out of this club and decide to rejoin because your distended stomach needs nutrition, then they are not going to be terribly understanding... I wouldn't think... If course, it is all conjecture - and not based in fact,

I also read someone saying they asked people what harm did the EU do to them (or some such question). Well, it may not have... but that doesn't mean things couldn't be better (and it doesn't mean things won't be an awful lot worse - but for no return as no one was hurt and there may well be nothing to fix). However, most of us are pilots.. and have we already forgotton the Gordeau (sp?) years and the additional costs and regulatory uncertainty he thrust on us. We still ldon't really know if we are legal or not with respect to all the different licencing requirements - and we are still in the EU!I have to say though, if the EU would protect GA airfields as part of the supranational infrastructure, I would be more minded to stay!

I hear the Brexiteers complain that the EU is not democratic. That is poppypenis. Do we not have the house of Lords, an unelected chamber? Do we not have an unwritten constituion (aka no constituion - just a body of administrative law and convention), where the courts cannot delcare legislation invalid? Farage carries on about how undemocratic the EU is because they don't allow private members bills into the parliament. Whoopee. I can't recall the precise law, but such bills, unless on national importance on a moral issue the guvmint doesn't want to be tarred with, from memory, have a spearate convening of parliament to discuss with no affect whatsoever, or are placed so far down the parliamentary business, they rarely even get read, let alone debated and voted on.

Also, the very country that the current guvmont holds dear - aka higher education fees and immigration quota systems - Australia - has always been considered a democracy. Yet, private members bills are effectively not allowed there, either. If a private member wishes to table a bill, it has to be submitted to the minister (Australian for secretary of state of the department) and they decide if they take it forward; they can amend it, etc, and they are the person who reads it to parliament. Fair Dinkum!

(Actually, you may have guessed by now, I am consuming some of that fine Aussie rough red as I type).

I could go on.. As I said, I really don't care whether we stay or go; I don't care if its a deal or no deal; Whichever way it is, companies will still want to make money and grow - and they will learn to deal with it and the consumer, as always, will pay.. Likely, the worker, too.. Consumers will still consume, so there will be an economy. And some companies will fall.. but I think that would happen anyway... But I have absolutely no data to back it up (and I make no promises).

Enjoy your debate.. I was going to say bring on 31/10, but all I want is the conclusion... So I can bleedin well implement whatever changes I need to..

We will be in pain, but that is what the majority of who turned out voted for. If we stay,

I'll come back in abother 100 pages or so.. In the meantime, enjoy Brexit.
eltonioni liked this
User avatar
By OCB
#1712554
Flyin'Dutch' wrote:https://youtu.be/cxLbmnvMWM0

Lovely bit of music, but not universally loved:

Friedrich Schiller wrote the poem "An die Freude" ("To Joy") in 1785 as a "celebration of the brotherhood of man".[3] In later life, the poet was contemptuous of this popularity and dismissed the poem as typical of "the bad taste of the age" in which it had been written.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthem_of_Europe

I have a healthy disrespect for propaganda, and appropriation of art for political purposes.

I will never, however, criticise anyone for trying to promote what they see as inclusive and peaceful ideals, with a bit of decent classical music in the background.
Flyin'Dutch' liked this
  • 1
  • 551
  • 552
  • 553
  • 554
  • 555
  • 577