Tue Jul 13, 2021 9:42 am
#1858510
As part of my mid-range planning, like many I use Windy.com (free version). In other words, I use BBC Weather in conjunction with Windy to look ahead 5 - 10 days to try and see which days might be flyable, which I then check my calendar with.
One of the things I struggle with as a relatively low-hours pilot is that I prefer to err away from winds near the upper end of limits, quite sensibly.
What I find difficult though is that I believe - in general - Windy.com seems to really over-egg the wind gust forecasts to the point where - if I take it at face value - I'd never fly.
What I notice is that the default model - from the ECMWF - appears to always be the most conservative (e.g. shows the highest wind gusts). If I switch to MeteoBlue, the forecast always drops.
Similarly, the GFS and ICON-EU model seem to be more polarising; it projects the windy days as windier, but the calmer days as calmer.
So, my questions are really:
What's the difference between models, in laymen's terms?
What models do others use, or do you just use the default (ECMWF)?
Is there a preferential model for aviation that I should use?
I'm aware I could be over-analysing this, but even at an intellectual level, interested in the differences between the models.
One of the things I struggle with as a relatively low-hours pilot is that I prefer to err away from winds near the upper end of limits, quite sensibly.
What I find difficult though is that I believe - in general - Windy.com seems to really over-egg the wind gust forecasts to the point where - if I take it at face value - I'd never fly.
What I notice is that the default model - from the ECMWF - appears to always be the most conservative (e.g. shows the highest wind gusts). If I switch to MeteoBlue, the forecast always drops.
Similarly, the GFS and ICON-EU model seem to be more polarising; it projects the windy days as windier, but the calmer days as calmer.
So, my questions are really:
What's the difference between models, in laymen's terms?
What models do others use, or do you just use the default (ECMWF)?
Is there a preferential model for aviation that I should use?
I'm aware I could be over-analysing this, but even at an intellectual level, interested in the differences between the models.