Sorry what hard data we have on MAC in Golf? we can imagine plausible scenarios but not much can be supported by actual data:
There is a list here (about 337 are documented in the last 100years) with only a small fraction OCAS and a very tiny in cruise OCAS:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-air_collisionhttps://aviation-safety.net/database/ev ... Event=COAII am sure there are plenty of airprox or aircraft spotting or loss of separation in Golf but that is nowhere near a “collision risk”? the formers are subjective (except separation which is well defined in ATC jargon but it is not offered or reported for flights OCAS), so I am sticking to the latter (collision is very objective), maybe there are load of undocumented collisions but you can’t hide two aircraft? Ok looking at the documented cases:
About order of magnitudes of x10 over 100 years were IFR/IFR in all in VMC on Airways on procedural ATC The most notable one is this, flying IFR airway and visually avoiding CB & terrain from the same side, since then US Congress imposed controlled IFR and Echo airspace and radar everywhere for public transport
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1956_Gran ... _collisionOnce in 5 years, IFR vs VFR in VMC near controlled airports Last ones were 6 months ago:
- in Denver, where an SR22 & Metroliner, no TCAS in both (theoretically, it should not happen if the VFR did fly a tight visual circuit with steep low power approach, you are nowhere at 800ft agl on 3nm final while VFR? or maybe it’s the case now as they teach VFR landings with ILS & PAPI and full power?)
- in Alaska, FAA was searching for “hit & run” from the surviving aircraft (it was a paraglider)
The most notable one was this one where TCAS was mandated for public transport in Part121, again by US Congress bill (TCAS is not yet mandated for Part135 as the Metroliner case show but still both aircraft had the mandatory ADSB
)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroméxico_Flight_498Hundreds of MAC from VFR vs VFR near airports in VMC OCASMaybe millions of airprox?
No VFR/VFR collision happened in VMC above 5kft agl OCAS in the last 50 years No IFR/IFR collision in clouds happened in IMC OCAS since 1940The last two won’t change above FL50/5kft agl using semi-circular or random as there is not much traffic for it to happen (yes load of airporox may happen but you need to see 10000 airporox or loss of separation for collision to happen)
Where things get messy is if you ask everybody to fly under 5kft airspace at FL35, FL45, FL40, FL45, then I am sure assign in/out routes would be a great idea otherwise let it mix and leave maths & thermodynamic do it’s job, it’s far better than people when it comes to diluting probabilities
just watch out when going to an airport or circuit or near cloudbase, that is where most of the risk sits, for cruise above 3kft OCAS you are most likely to lose the altimeter or have a random heart attack than hitting someone…
PS: when you cross French/Spanish border you have to swap from N-S semi-circular to E-W semi-circular, I bet zillions of people like me did not know this and still none has fallen out of the sky yet