Primarily for general aviation discussion, but other aviation topics are also welcome.
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By StratoTramp
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1866673
Sounds like people have lots of ways to manage risk, which is essentially what a lot of life is about.

I personally quite like the stoic's Memento Mori - "remember death" - But only so you remember to live. Death could take you at any time perhaps just crossing the street so don't live in fear or prejudge the situation.

Along similar lines (hope I am remembering this right, I am not Hindu or religious, also hope that it doesn't contradict the mod rules) In the Bhagavad-Gita, Arjuna is worried about going into battle and slaying people he previously considered friends. Krishna says "Don't worry, they all belong to me anyway". It is just a matter of time for all of us.

It's not about being carefree about mortality. But just continue to manage the risks, eat healthy (no chance with me!) and don't let fear rule.

Stay safe flying,
Martin.
#1866743
StratoTramp wrote:.. In the Bhagavad-Gita, ..

It's not about being carefree about mortality. ..don't let fear rule.

...


:thumright:

<continuing drift, with obligatory linguist swerve :oops: >

The 18th c "Elegy in a Country Churchyard" (which Gray originally tried to publish anonymously; an interesting story in its own right) was one of the most admired, and in the 'Romantic' period of 19th c European poetry, most translated or imitated in other languages*, poems. It treats death both as the leveller (and puncturer of the arrogance of the living) and as no reason not to enjoy life. Our children all first flew with me when each was 3, one is now also a GA pilot (and married with children).

* eg Ugo Foscolo ‘The Tombs (I sepolcri)’; Dimitrios Paparrhegopoulos (Δημήτριος Παπαρρηγόπουλος) 'The Lantern of the Athens cemetery' (Ὁ φανός τοῦ Κοιμητηρίου Ἀθηνών), ..

</>
StratoTramp, JAFO liked this
#1866746
It's a personal decision that only you can make. As a financial trader I am surprisingly risk averse. We stopped flying together when we had kids, I simply don't want a situation where for the rest of their lives the kids are left saying 'what were they thinking?'

I make 4 observations:

1. Humans generally become more risk averse as they get older.
2. Everybody thinks they are an above average driver/ pilot so they think it is less likely to happen to them. I read every accident report and observe that pilots who are far better qualified than me and more experienced than me have got into trouble, often fatally.
3. It's not the known known that is likely to do for you, it's the known unknown and the unknown unknown, these are out of your control.
4. I am curious that one poster stated they didn't want to leave their kids orphans so as a solution they didn't fly with their partner unless the kids were with them. That's not been thought through either, you don't get to choose who gets killed in a fatal air accident as the following sad case proves:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... _03-16.pdf
#1866752
TheArb wrote:..
.. Humans generally become more risk averse as they get older...


Indeed. One reason why I sold my last share ~4 years ago is that there was an increasing number of occasions when I called off a planned sortie, or turned back en-route, because of weather which I'd have readily (possibly foolishly) tackled decades ago when forecasting was much worse and navigation aids far fewer (even though our children were then much smaller). For the same reason I decided not to go for a share being offered locally in an attractive type with which I was very familiar; I thought it through and decided that I'd use it even less, although the small group meant that availability would have been much better than before.
By TopCat
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1866757
TheArb wrote:2. Everybody thinks they are an above average driver/ pilot so they think it is less likely to happen to them. I read every accident report and observe that pilots who are far better qualified than me and more experienced than me have got into trouble, often fatally.

Qualifications and experience count for nothing if what one does is still risky. Whether you are likely to suffer the same outcome as those more experienced and qualified that came to grief depends on whether you do the same things as they do.

3. It's not the known known that is likely to do for you, it's the known unknown and the unknown unknown, these are out of your control.

I don't think this is true. The vast majority of light aircraft accidents fall into a small number of categories, which are very well known and understood.

If you don't do those things, you are very much less likely to come to grief.

The unknowns are in fact, much less likely to be the cause of any fatality. Sudden control or structural failures are very rare, in well maintained and pre-flighted aircraft, for instance.

I understand the point you're making in citing that accident at Popham, but not all flights carry the same risk.
#1866954
I’ve done plenty of “risky” things in my life, I just try to do them in a safe way.

I don’t think that’s an odd statement.

Bungee jumps for instance aren’t actually risky, you just have procedures to make sure you are attached etc. It’s quite safe (and actually quite a docile experience), it’s the false perception of risk that makes them “exciting/scary”.

Racing old cars isn’t actually risky if you are careful with your safety before you leave the pits.

I’ve flown plenty of aerobatics. Never at low level, never without someone very experienced and only once without a chute.

I’m very risk adverse, I really want to fly to Scilly, but I can’t work out a way to mitigate the risk to a level acceptable to me.

I know the engine doesn’t know it’s over water, which means it might quit, because it thinks I’ll land in a field.

This is going to sound odd,

Whenever I take anyone flying, I don’t really worry about killing them.

This is because I’ll be in the plane, and if I thought there was a proper risk of dying, first and foremost I’d not be in the thing, forget any passengers!

I discussed this at length with one of my passengers, he thought it quite reassuring when I said “forget about you, I’m not really worried about you, I’ll be in the thing”.

So, I suppose I’ll take anyone flying, but I won’t launch into just any old situation with them, and I’ve scrubbed plenty of flights, either with passengers or on my own.

This is relevant to the OP, I don’t understand why they are getting in an aircraft with anyone if they think there is a real risk to them both dying.

Some might think I’m in the “it’ll never happen to me brigade”.

In some ways I am, I tell you what actually will never happen to me, CFIT.

Ain’t happening.

It’s not hard to make sure it ain’t happening, in the same way it’s not hard to ensure you are attached to a bungee cord.

Other things I have less control over, and some things none.

I think if I go whilst flying, it’ll be a MAC, it’s the only thing that’s nearly got me so far. The near miss I had almost stopped me flying for good.
#1866958
Cessna571 wrote:This is because I’ll be in the plane, and if I thought there was a proper risk of dying, first and foremost I’d not be in the thing, forget any passengers!

For me the glaring error in this thinking is that 99.9% of those who have died had that same belief.

I'd argue; as it's the false perception of risk that makes bungee jumping exciting, it's the firm belief that you won't die flying that permits you to fly. :wink:
mick w, Flyin'Dutch' liked this
By TopCat
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1866960
Cessna571 wrote:I really want to fly to Scilly, but I can’t work out a way to mitigate the risk to a level acceptable to me.

I know the engine doesn’t know it’s over water, which means it might quit, because it thinks I’ll land in a field.

27nm from Lands End. For me it's doable at 9000'; Dover to CGN at 6000' for the same reason. Southampton to Guernsey DCT, absolutely not.
I think if I go whilst flying, it’ll be a MAC, it’s the only thing that’s nearly got me so far.

Yes, same here - that's the only significant risk to my life that I can see, other than a sudden medical incapacitation that wouldn't have killed me on the ground or even more unlikely, possibly a random control or structural failure.

Like you, I'm very sure I won't fly into the side of something hard that isn't moving, and I won't be losing control in a forced landing, or drowning.
#1866961
Miscellaneous wrote:
Cessna571 wrote:This is because I’ll be in the plane, and if I thought there was a proper risk of dying, first and foremost I’d not be in the thing, forget any passengers!

For me the glaring error in this thinking is that 99.9% of those who have died had that same belief.


It’s more about WHY I believe that, than just believing it.

I believe that because I’m a very careful pilot and risk adverse.

Here’s an actual true story..

I once turned up to fly our aircraft with another group member who checked the oil and fuel, and jumped in.

I said “preflight?” and he said “nah, it was flown twice yesterday, I’m sure it was checked then”.

So I did a preflight.

He doesn’t think he’ll die in an aircraft, but it’s just blind faith.

My belief is based on me doing everything I can to prevent it.

I mean “If I still thought there was a proper risk of dying after the steps I’d taken to minimise it, I’d not be in the plane”
#1866962
@Cessna571 indirectly you may just be suggesting all those who have not faired well have in some way not been as thorough as you are. I doubt very much that is the case.

With the greatest of respect, IMO, you are being a little naive in thinking you can control the likelihood of you dying as precisely as you believe you can. Sure, you can do all within your power to minimise the risk, there is still a lot you cannot control.

Interestingly, thinking this through, having your belief it cannot happen to me would make me very nervous. :?

As I've said numerous times over the years, it's fascinating how we view and rationalise risk. The more I watch and listen, the more convinced I become that little of it is based on hard fact. :D I'm beginning to conclude that is necessary for our very existence. :wink:

'tis all about perception. :thumright:
Flyin'Dutch' liked this
User avatar
By PeteSpencer
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1866985
TheArb wrote:
1. Humans generally become more risk averse as they get older.


This is true in my case and I'm very old:

I think this is why I now rarely take passengers any more:

My 'scrub index' due weather and other causes has risen and I can no longer take the look/sound of disappointment on pax faces/in their voices when I scrub yet another offered flight for reasons which I'm sure may seem trivial to them.
Peter Mundy liked this
#1866989
Miscellaneous wrote:@Cessna571 indirectly you may just be suggesting all those who have not faired well have in some way not been as thorough as you are. I doubt very much that is the case.

With the greatest of respect, IMO, you are being a little naive in thinking you can control the likelihood of you dying as precisely as you believe you can. Sure, you can do all within your power to minimise the risk, there is still a lot you cannot control.

Interestingly, thinking this through, having your belief it cannot happen to me would make me very nervous. :?

As I've said numerous times over the years, it's fascinating how we view and rationalise risk. The more I watch and listen, the more convinced I become that little of it is based on hard fact. :D I'm beginning to conclude that is necessary for our very existence. :wink:

'tis all about perception. :thumright:


You are missing my point.

It can happen to me, but it won’t be for lack of trying to stop it happening to me.

What I’m saying, is it’s nearly always pilot error.

So, the risk to try and rule out is pilot error.

“Get home itis”

that’s just a bad decision, the fix is to TRY to not make bad decisions.

I started this thread because I don’t understand the bad decisions that cause someone to be caught in IMC when they are a VFR pilot.

I was trying to find out what the bad decisions are, as I don’t believe anyone launches into an overcast deliberately, or worsening weather deliberately.

No one finds themselves suddenly in the middle of CB, so, how do they get there? How can I make sure I don’t get there.

My current plan is to avoid bad weather like the plague, and vow that I’d rather land in a field than fly into a big cloud. If I found myself in a worsening situation, I’d be looking for an alternate, if I couldn’t find one, I’d be looking for a precautionary landing.

CFIT and loss of control in IMC happens.

I’m not arrogant enough to say I can control all risks, I’m trying to work out how it happens to others, so it doesn’t happen to me.

There’s about a million steps before a CFIT or loss of control, why do we never discuss how people got into that cloud? I’m pretty sure it wasn’t deliberate.

We only ever say “don’t have pressonitis, don’t have gethomeitis”

That doesn’t work obviously, so there’s no point in me saying that, if I should be saying something else.
#1866991
Miscellaneous wrote:@Cessna571 indirectly you may just be suggesting all those who have not faired well have in some way not been as thorough as you are. I doubt very much that is the case.



So do I, so I am trying to understand how it happens.

yet the accident reports all say “bloggs was in a cloud”

I’m sure bloggs didn’t think “I’ll fly into a mountain today”, so what did bloggs do wrong, and how can I not do it.

Dismissing it “the holes in the cheese lined up” isn’t good enough imho.


The worst one I’ve seen is the internal footage of the helicopter into the side of a mountain. The poor passengers before their deaths look terrified. Every pilot should be made to watch that, the circumstances of that one are very easy to understand and mitigate against.
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