Primarily for general aviation discussion, but other aviation topics are also welcome.
#1815535
It's easy for China lockdowns to seem effective when you just doctor the results.

Testing over 2 million in a city and finding 0 positive results. It isn't as if false positives are something that have been observed with testing elsewhere...


I wonder how long the travel bans will continue
eltonioni, flybymike liked this
#1815538
After nigh on a year of lockdowns, how anyone can say that they work is beyond me. Especially anyone living under a newly invented Tier 4, or Scotland, Wales... France, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, Spain.....
RipAndTear, flybymike liked this
#1815541
eltonioni wrote:After nigh on a year of lockdowns, how anyone can say that they work is beyond me. Especially anyone living under a newly invented Tier 4, or Scotland, Wales... France, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, Spain.....
I'm (honestly) not looking for an argument, I have followed the data on infections and lockdowns very closely. IMO you can see the relationship between lockdowns and infection rates.
OK, forget the above: I don't understand your point. Lockdowns have worked. Also, infections have increased. There's a pandemic.
What's your alternative plan? Using data and preserving the NHS seems sensible.
You seem to say 'We've tried lockdown but there's still a disease.' WTF did you expect?
I don't doubt that it's beyond you
#1815550
neilmurg wrote:OK, forget the above: I don't understand your point. Lockdowns have worked. Also, infections have increased. There's a pandemic.
What's your alternative plan? Using data and preserving the NHS seems sensible.
You seem to say 'We've tried lockdown but there's still a disease.' WTF did you expect?


Actually, the question of what are we trying to achieve with lockdown/restrictions is a very important one that nobody in charge has answered.

Lockdown/restrictions currently only slow down how quickly the disease spreads (so helps with capacity in the healthcare system), but do nothing to actually stop it.
Vaccine might be the solution, however there are currently doubts to the effectiveness of current vaccines against the new strain and if those turn out to be valid we might be starting from nearly nothing again (and when next vaccine ends up being developed we might be in same place again).

I also have concerns about accuracy of the data the government is using, i've been downloading data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing and ONS every week and comparing numbers (things like % positive tests, all deaths above average vs official covid deaths) and i've found that few months ago historical data has changed (to show approximately 400k less total tests and 200k more positive tests (data was allegedly deduplicated in july but that would show less positive tests and less total tests not more of one and less of the other)), at the same time value of this data is questionable because requirements for a test have changed multiple times over time so data from now might not be in any way comparable to data from april (in april 30% tests were positive slowly decreasing to reach 1% around june and staying around 1% until september to start rising again to 6-8% in october with slight decrease in november (but at the same time there was a 40% reduction in tests done in november)).
eltonioni, rvzaaz, flybymike and 1 others liked this
By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1815560
I am getting thoroughly fed up with all of this.

We know full well that if the precautions are observed and lockdowns imposed properly than the disease can be controlled to a reasonable degree. It's the half-hearted and confused approach that is potentially very dangerous and that's where we find ourselves.

We are not alone in Europe and the USA is still a mess.
JAFO, kanga, gaznav and 1 others liked this
#1815561
rdfb wrote:
eltonioni wrote:We’re going to be reminded that lockdowns don’t work, yet again.


The stats from the previous lockdowns show otherwise. Lockdowns do slow down the tide.

What you did there was to set your own terms of reference. - "slow the tide". Full hospitals and Tier 4 say otherwise. If only we could always measure success on personal terms Sheffield Wednesday would be the best team in the league for having the least number of points. Sore point, don't go there :cry:


neilmurg wrote:
eltonioni wrote:After nigh on a year of lockdowns, how anyone can say that they work is beyond me. Especially anyone living under a newly invented Tier 4, or Scotland, Wales... France, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, Spain.....
I'm (honestly) not looking for an argument, I have followed the data on infections and lockdowns very closely. IMO you can see the relationship between lockdowns and infection rates.
OK, forget the above: I don't understand your point. Lockdowns have worked. Also, infections have increased. There's a pandemic.
What's your alternative plan? Using data and preserving the NHS seems sensible.
You seem to say 'We've tried lockdown but there's still a disease.' WTF did you expect?
I don't doubt that it's beyond you


It's not beyond me because like you, I have also followed the numbers. Maybe you just didn't notice that lockdowns don't work because you need to look beyond the numbers, not at the numbers. At the most basic level, when there is a two week lag on infections you only have to look at the Welsh covid hokey cokey to see that lockdowns have not worked, do not work, will not start working.

If you want to get a bit more sophisticated maybe nip over to the thread I started entitled There is n̶o̶ vaccine - what's the exit strategy?. Unless we interrogate that question there is no point even discussing lockdowns because we don't know what we're actually trying to achieve. If you'd like to bring your "data" that lockdowns work to that thread we can interrogate your assertions but don't expect an easy win, so bring your A game.

The last six months have seen an incredible improvement in treatments so even that question changes. But, if you are happy to stay under lockdowns ad-Infinitum, with all that entails, don't be surprised if some of us are up on the barricades fighting for your society, your family, your wealth, your freedom, your rights.


johnm wrote:I am getting thoroughly fed up with all of this.

We know full well that if the precautions are observed and lockdowns imposed properly than the disease can be controlled to a reasonable degree. It's the half-hearted and confused approach that is potentially very dangerous and that's where we find ourselves.

We are not alone in Europe and the USA is still a mess.

Yea, but they are not. That's it, end of story, lockdowns are a busted flush,

Picking up on my comment last night it is starting to look like the UK has simply ID'd this new one because (apparently) we are doing 45% of the world's genomic sequencing so we're actually finding it. That it's so prevalent in the SE and London is a bit a smoking gun that it's come in from abroad.
rvzaaz, Flyingfemme, Spooky and 1 others liked this
#1815573
I'm just gobsmacked that people are surprised by the virus mutating. That's what they do in order to carry out their only purpose; survive.

I'm also surprised this is the first we've supposedly known about the mutation when it was documented months ago, following the contraction of the virus, a second time, by a bloke in Hong Kong. After the first case he was given the all clear and the doctors gave him a clean bill of health after carrying out many blood tests. A couple of months later he was back to see the Covid people with the same symptoms. Yes, he had it again but the blood tests then confirmed it was a different strain to his first case.

The Flu mutates each year, so why are people so shocked that Covid is doing the same thing?

It's a good excuse to fill in the tunnel and cut us off from France again :wink:
Flyingfemme, Spooky, JAFO and 3 others liked this
#1815578
PaulSS wrote:I'm just gobsmacked that people are surprised by the virus mutating. That's what they do in order to carry out their only purpose; survive.

I'm also surprised this is the first we've supposedly known about the mutation when it was documented months ago, following the contraction of the virus, a second time, by a bloke in Hong Kong. After the first case he was given the all clear and the doctors gave him a clean bill of health after carrying out many blood tests. A couple of months later he was back to see the Covid people with the same symptoms. Yes, he had it again but the blood tests then confirmed it was a different strain to his first case.

The Flu mutates each year, so why are people so shocked that Covid is doing the same thing?

It's a good excuse to fill in the tunnel and cut us off from France again :wink:


I’m guessing that the latest Covid terror reports is to get the failure of the EU&British negotiations out of the headlines? The virus has certainly been used as a handy political tool throughout the year.
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#1815579
PaulSS wrote:I'm just gobsmacked that people are surprised by the virus mutating. That's what they do in order to carry out their only purpose; survive. ........

.................The Flu mutates each year, so why are people so shocked that Covid is doing the same thing?

Are people gobsmacked and shocked ?
Or is it just being driven by the press?

BBC:
Three things are coming together that mean it is attracting attention:

It is rapidly replacing other versions of the virus

So it's just another version? Or...?
By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1815582
Nobody who can read and understand what they read should be shocked by this. My 6 year old grandson was unsurprised by real time Christmas re-arrangements yesterday and knew that he couldn't return on Christmas Day because of the Tiers.

All that's required is for people to follow the precautions properly [/stuckrecord]
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By riverrock
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1815583
There have been thousands of mutations documented.
Pretty much all have had no noticeable differences in effects.

Apparently this variant was first spotted from someone in Hong Kong who had been infected for the second time.
By johnm
FLYER Club Member  FLYER Club Member
#1815584
"Fog in the channel continent isolated" is now a very obsolete headline. "Continent isolating UK" is today's reality......
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