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Not quite as simple as that. PROB30 can mean fairly unlikely, or it can mean it's out there somewhere but only taking up some of the sky and thus it can be isolated, or scattered or somewhere in the vicinity but not sure if it's going to be "here". PROB40 can just mean more of the sky is covered, and "it'll definitely hit where we are at some point" (or thereabouts). You have to look at the bigger picture.

Build-ups are typical of this as there can be isolated CB/TSs just bobbing around. For one to just appear in clear blue skies and grow larger and quicker than you can escape as given above is extremely unlikely, even in Florida in the summer!

Be careful to avoid controlled airspace when dodging rain storms.

Paul_Sengupta wrote:Be careful to avoid controlled airspace when dodging rain storms.

Sad day when the fear of the CAA is greater than the fear of thunderstorms.

skydriller wrote:There wouldnt be alot of summer flying here if we didnt fly when the temp reached 30deg C...

Come to Scotland - there is no flying here when its 30 deg.

Because it never reaches 30 deg

Looking at the rainfall radar could be time to leave the IOW.

riverrock wrote:..
Come to Scotland - there is no flying here when its 30 deg.

Because it never reaches 30 deg

I earned the money for my PPL as a student by working crazy hours at low pay for holiday airlines during my vacations, in various ground dogsbody roles. One summer it was at Prestwick, working for Caledonian (sic), handling both transatlantic affinity charters with B707s and inclusive tours to the Mediterranean with Britannias. For most of that summer I was working in shirtsleeves, even on night shifts; holidaymakers returning from Spain would be complaining about the weather there

riverrock wrote:Because it never reaches 30 deg

Very short memory there @riverrock

P&J July 2019 wrote:Temperatures in Edinburgh reached a sweltering 31.6 degrees, bettering the year’s best of 31 degrees recorded in Achnagart in the Highlands last month.

Not 30 degrees today though. Don't think I'll make the Perth fly-in tomorrow.

I usually find this kind of sky - looking SW from South Croydon - is a good indicator of coming thunder; even if not in the immediate vicinity. There were some good curvy hard edges to some of the clouds north of me an hour ago, didn't manage to get a pic.

DR400 flew over a short while ago, fair bit of crab on!

ChrisRowland wrote:Looking at the rainfall radar could be time to leave the IOW.

I agree, there's a line which formed along the Cherbourg peninsular moving its way across the channel. Either leave now or give it a couple of hours to pass through. I don't know when's the latest you can get back to Fairoaks.

Actually, if you leave now you're going to have to go north or north west to start with, to avoid a small line of rain.

Personally I'd contemplate giving it a couple of hours and leaving once it's all gone through, but then I don't mind flying when it's getting dark!

34 deg C on my patio this arvo...................(thermometer in shade).

Still wall to wall blue sky, but it's on its way................

Peter

I saw Heathrow hit 37C at one point. They’ll need that long runway !

Iceman

Paul_Sengupta wrote:
Be careful to avoid controlled airspace when dodging rain storms.


Agreed but if you ever find yourself boxed into a corner and you fear for your safety then don't hesitate in calling them and declaring a PAN (or MAYDAY if it's bad enough).

(edit to remove example, memory fade)

So sad that the CAA and NATS have actively worked together to create a climate of fear where the safety of GA is jeopardised !

Liquor15_7924 wrote:if you ever find yourself boxed into a corner and you fear for your safety then don't hesitate in calling them and declaring a PAN (or MAYDAY if it's bad enough).

"Station calling, unreadable."

What now?

The small line has cleared by the way, leaving a clear run from the IoW to Fairoaks currently.

Paul_Sengupta wrote:

Liquor15_7924 wrote:if you ever find yourself boxed into a corner and you fear for your safety then don't hesitate in calling them and declaring a PAN (or MAYDAY if it's bad enough).

"Station calling, unreadable."

What now?

Simples, pull the BRS!

"Station calling, unreadable."

What now?

7700

No ssr or brs then decide which is the lesser of two evils, infringe or die.