Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:08 am #1783555
Miscellaneous wrote:lobstaboy wrote:Miscellaneous wrote:Neither. IMO you are eliminating risks as an emotional response, rather than logical, that are so small they are insignificant in terms of the overall risks of flying GA.
I will, however, defend your right to do so.
Emotional response maybe, but they are all the result of something bad that has happened to me and I don't want to put myself in the same situation again.
That's where the logic fails, IMO.
That something untoward has happened is not an indication it is has higher probability of happening again. That it did happen and you are still here is testament to it turning out okay.
There's an underlying assumption that you will only participate in flights of a 'type' you have not had something bad happen. That's flawed thinking. Because something hasn't happened is no more an indication it will not happen, than something having happened is an indication it will happen again.
If we had all to desist from activities in which we had something bad happen, in the belief it would happen again, we wouldn't have much of a life.
EDIT: seeing @Rob P's post above caused me to wonder what you would do if, like Rob, you had an EFATO. Would you stop taking off and so hang up your headset?
You misunderstand. We agree that mostly I'm reacting to emotion. Not cold hard logic. It's a big mistake to believe that people should make decisions based only on logic.
I have had two EFATOs. I learned from both. The learning isn't to stop flying but to look for the chain of causation and find a way to break that chain in future. That way you know you've done your best to not get caught out that way again.
Contrariwise, you seem to be suggesting that since logic says something is very unlikely to happen then there is no point in worrying about it. But risk is made up of two elements - likelihood of a bad thing happening AND the magnitude of the impact it will have if it does happen. That's where my personal rule about no overwater flights comes from - small likelihood of ending up in the drink but big impact if you do (coupled in my case with an emotional aversion to being dunked).
Last edited by lobstaboy on Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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