Primarily for general aviation discussion, but other aviation topics are also welcome.
#1757767
How long will it take CAT to recover after Covid 19? Will it recover?

There are some interesting graphics from Eurocontrol on Twitter

This is quite impressive

Image

and this moving gif that I'm not sure how to embed so will post the Tweet



I can see people wanting to take holidays, but will some companies realise that the meeting in New York has had its day?

I've no idea.... just pondering
#1757780
Depends how much cash you’re sitting on, and how much of your money you save by not doing whatever your business is.

If you aren’t flying, you’re not paying for fuel, landing fees, enroute navigation charges, employees variable pay, maintenance items that are related to flying hours/cycles and so on. You are still having to pay for everything else, but if you convince your employees to take pay cuts or “furlough” them onto the government scheme, there’s a fair bit of cash protection available.

One or two city friends have said this has made them realise how important face to face meetings are. I don’t see a full bounce back by any means, but anyone with access to a big pile of cash (IAG, EZY, RYR) or the government credit card (Alitalia, AFKLM, Lufty) will probably be ok, and positioned to feast on what’s left of the remainder.

Just opinions of somebody with nothing to do these days but childcare!
#1758001
The metric often used by accountants to assess the point at which firms either sell assets, refinance or fail is known as the Defensive Interval. You can work it out from a firm's balance sheet by dividing current assets by daily operating expenditure (which can be observed from P&L). Defensive intervals of greater than 90 days are unusual in the airline industry.

Once daily operating expenditure has been trimmed to its lowest point, there aren't many options open.
#1758597
Silly question and I may get wording technically incorrect because I don't understand how commercial aircraft ownership/leasing works. Hopefully someone will fill the gaps.

If an airline owns their aircraft, they are probably going to be paying off a loan/mortgage. If this doesn't get paid then the loan company can foreclose, but they'd just end up with a heap of metal that's not going anywhere anytime soon.

Similarly with a leased aircraft. the lease company isn't going to be able to lease it to someone else and they may also be paying a loan/mortgage.

What is likely to happen to all these aircraft currently stuck on the ground?
#1758618
PaulB wrote:Silly question and I may get wording technically incorrect because I don't understand how commercial aircraft ownership/leasing works. Hopefully someone will fill the gaps.

If an airline owns their aircraft, they are probably going to be paying off a loan/mortgage. If this doesn't get paid then the loan company can foreclose, but they'd just end up with a heap of metal that's not going anywhere anytime soon.

Similarly with a leased aircraft. the lease company isn't going to be able to lease it to someone else and they may also be paying a loan/mortgage.

What is likely to happen to all these aircraft currently stuck on the ground?


https://airplaneboneyards.com/davis-mon ... neyard.htm
Peter
#1758668
Lots of airlines will go bust. So will Boeing. With thousands of serviceable aircraft on the market very cheaply and no money about, the new market will collapse which will be too much for Boeing (although being too big to fail, allegedly, the US Government will probably resort to dirty tricks to save them.)
Boxkite liked this
#1759236
Plenty of airlines will go bust. The “flag” airlines will survive with government money and Boeing is in for a tough time because they were already in a bad way after the Max catastrophe. But new airlines will spring up and the British will travel as soon as it looks cheap enough.
Boxkite liked this
#1759513
tomshep wrote:Lots of airlines will go bust. So will Boeing. With thousands of serviceable aircraft on the market very cheaply and no money about, the new market will collapse which will be too much for Boeing (although being too big to fail, allegedly, the US Government will probably resort to dirty tricks to save them.)


Looks like Stelios is trying to get Squeezy out of a €5B Airbus deal too.
That'll cause ructions.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... cancelled/

G-JWTP
#1759806
Even if travel restrictions are lifted in the reasonably (say 6 months for argument) near future, then without a vaccine or a cure will many pax who do not know their immune status want to mingle in busy airports?

And if insurance companies exclude coronavirus treatment from travel medical cover would many take the risk of getting ill abroad?

I think this will be a long process. It may be solved for those who have had Covid-19 by an internationally acceptable test and certificate of immunity if such a thing can be developed and internationally agreed.