[ls8pilot]

I suspect the analysis by @leemoore1966 is why there is only the uavionix device available at the moment..... a UK only market is too small. There is a bigger market for multi protocol receivers and traffic displays, as everyone who goes the transponder route needs a receiver and display and the powerflarm +ADSB boxes are expensive . A coaming mount box might have a good market at the right price.

[TC_LTN]

Could they not add ADSB out in future generations of PAW?

I am guessing by ADSB out you mean CAP1391, then yes this would not be technically difficult.
But it is a heavy cost barrier to entry, and empirical data shows us that there is no feasible market for this device.

Our GRID network and ATOM groundstations, have been capturing Aircraft data since January. This system can distinguish between ADS-B, CAP1391, FLARM, PAW
In the UK during that time we have seen the following number of unique emitters :-

Code: Select allPAW     = 1242
FLARM   =  692
CAP1391 =   87

Of those numbers above, the following combinations were present

Code: Select allFLARM   + PAW   = 60
CAP1391 + PAW   =  8
CAP1391 + FLARM =  1

Now of course, there are possible errors with this data, for instance, the flying season has not yet truly started, but when it does, we would expect these numbers to scale accordingly.

Ultimately we believe this is a question of return on investment, we are a small and agile company and if the market for CAP1391 is as small as these numbers indicate, and the cost to entry is so high, then even if we had captured 50% of the market - we would only have somewhere in the region of 45 units in service.

That is an untenable cost of investment for very little return, and hence our investment is best placed elsewhere.

Thx
Lee

How many hundreds of thousands of ADS-B emissions did you detect in UK airspace during January?

[leemoore1966]

How many hundreds of thousands of ADS-B emissions did you detect in UK airspace during January?

I am pretty sure the OP was referring to CAP1391, but lets wait for his response.
In the meantime, surely the CAA/NATS have all of this data from their own ADS-B infrastructure which has been described earlier in this thread ?

Thx
Lee

[Keith Vinning]

Have you ever declined a similar offer?

Jonathan .... No

[Tim Dawson]

Ultimately we believe this is a question of return on investment, we are a small and agile company and if the market for CAP1391 is as small as these numbers indicate, and the cost to entry is so high, then even if we had captured 50% of the market - we would only have somewhere in the region of 45 units in service.

If I'm not mistaken you're indicating that the size of the market for CAP1391 devices is the number of CAP1391 devices you detected earlier this year.

The market for CAP1391 devices is surely the number of GA airframes not equipped with Mode S ES?

[Dave W]

Potentially more than that, even.

Aircraft equipped with Mode S -ES may also have a CAP1391 device (as some do PAW) for EC-IN.

[leemoore1966]

If I'm not mistaken you're indicating that the size of the market for CAP1391 devices is the number of CAP1391 devices you detected earlier this year.

The market for CAP1391 devices is surely the number of GA airframes not equipped with Mode S ES?

Hi Tim,
I see your point yes, I think I would call that a 'potential market'.
I am referring to the actual market with respect to what the market wants, and has been prepared to pay money thus far.
I have gone back through the forum, and it looks like the first CAP1391 device (SkyEcho ATT-20B) was made available in the UK in 2016

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=102353&p=1504183#p1504183

Looks like the future to me.
By Cub - 12 Dec 2016 18:16
SkyEcho ATT-20B Portable ADS-B In/Out Transceiver CAP-1391 Approved

So CAP1391 devices have been available for more than 3 years.
I think an investor would probably be understandably unhappy with that kind of growth and market share for the sizeable R&D investment

Thx
Lee

[patowalker]

Looks like the future to me.
By Cub - 12 Dec 2016 18:16
SkyEcho ATT-20B Portable ADS-B In/Out Transceiver CAP-1391 Approved

It is never going to be the future, until it can be used in place of a transponder.

[Tim Dawson]

I think an investor would probably be understandably unhappy with that kind of growth and market share for the sizeable R&D investment

Until a couple of months ago, these CAP1391 devices couldn't be used together with a transponder. That limitation has now gone, so the coming flying season may be the first time the market is really tested.

[ls8pilot]

........
I have gone back through the forum, and it looks like the first CAP1391 device (SkyEcho ATT-20B) was made available in the UK in 2016

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=102353&p=1504183#p1504183

Looks like the future to me.
By Cub - 12 Dec 2016 18:16
SkyEcho ATT-20B Portable ADS-B In/Out Transceiver CAP-1391 Approved

So CAP1391 devices have been available for more than 3 years.
I think an investor would probably be understandably unhappy with that kind of growth and market share for the sizeable R&D investment

Thx
Lee

To be fair the Mark 1 device was too large for many cockpits. But even so it has been around 18 months I think since SkyEcho 2 started to become available. It may be as @Tim Dawson says that co-existing with transponders was an inhibitor (especially for renters), or maybe lack of clear promotion of ADSB by the CAA has not helped. I wonder how many have been sold, my guess is sales performance has been rather underwhelming.

[gaznav]

To be fair, my biggest disappointment with an otherwise excellent SkyEcho 2 has been the lack of PAW detection. I get why the company haven’t invested in that as it would then give approval for an unofficial protocol - you could argue they did that for FLARM, but there are way more FLARMs out in the world than there are PAWs. I really like the fact that my SkyEcho 2 picks up FLARM effectively, but having the PAW element too would be even better. Then it would see most things in Class G below 10,000ft that is pumping out a GPS/GNSS position.

If SkyEcho 3 came out with FLARM/PAW detection in the future, I would likely look at selling my Mk 2 model and happily pay the extra cash to get that.

[ls8pilot]

I was also disappointed that uavionix withdrew the promised Mode S detection, and that there is no sign of the LCD display they talked about in the initial web description.

However I'm willing to accept I've bought as an early adopter and may replace with subsequent improved kit from uavionix or maybe even a flarm based manufacturer.

[gaznav]

TBH I was never a fan of the Mode S detection as there was tech out there being used by many that was reporting an accurate position for detection. Due to the varied power outputs of transponders, their different antennae gains due to the varied mounting locations and a reliance on something else triggering a response on 1090MHz, then to me Mode S detection was not the answer. It seems that none of the GA EC manufacturers currently produce a device that will directly receive the others’ signal - the claimed ‘Babel Fish’ PAW still has to rely upon a ground system rather than direct reception and decode of FLARM signals - the SkyEcho and PFLARM will not see PAW but will see each other (one receiving FLARM and the other seeing ADS-B). That said, now that anyone with a non-enabled ES Mode S can carry a CAP1391 device then why not just do that and everyone can start detecting each other?

[TC_LTN]

Our GRID network and ATOM groundstations, have been capturing Aircraft data since January. This system can distinguish between ADS-B, CAP1391, FLARM, PAW
In the UK during that time we have seen the following number of unique emitters :-

Code: Select allPAW     = 1242
FLARM   =  692
CAP1391 =   87

I am trying to get a precise figure but over the same period there have been approximately

Code: Select allADS-B = 396000

emitters detected in UK airspace.

Now I know that the PAW zealots will immediately say that that is not representative of the GA fleet and that is entirely correct. But, we have to deliver an emission standard to support a sense and avoid capability and interoperability amongst the whole fleet particularly if we are to realise airspace sharing and UAS integration at the lower levels, in very busy airspace.

Clearly, any sensible regulator is going to prescribe an emission standard that has already achieved that level of market penetration and operational deployment particularly when the cost of deployment in the GA fleet has dropped so dramatically in the last few years thanks largely to the efforts of the UK.

I would hope that having made the strategy clear, the next move will be to mandate ADS-B out on all new transponder installations followed very quickly by an EC mandate throughout the UK. The mandate must be supported by the deployment of a multi-model network of transceiver sites offering FIS-B, TIS-B, and multilateration.

Homebrew detection devices delivering innovative detection of a currently diverse range of emissions, amongst a very small percentage of the fleet, are great and commendable but not adopting the prescribed emission standard for the fleet will quickly mean that the GA operator without a transponder or standalone ADS-B has to invest twice.

[T67M]

My "investment" in PAW cost less than one flying token (£200) and has lasted me very well for 3 years so far, and with the current lack of progress, I probably have another 3 years before anything replaces it. In terms of "return on investment" in aviation, PAW is the best I've ever seen. It certainly beats my GTX330 non-ES investment into a cocked hat!