[Waveflyer]

I haven’t been persuaded by your reasoning, mainly because you are quoting examples of people that might well be described as alcoholics. Did this pilot fall into that category? I think that on the balance of probability he did not because the problem would have been picked up before then. Therefore, he was still able to make a rational decision as we all do on a regular basis unless we deliberately decide to throw caution to the wind.
I totally agree alcoholism is a different matter altogether.

[riverrock]

There is a bit more background from https://news.sky.com/story/double-vodka ... s-11402685
Sounds like it was a technician who smelt alcohol on his breath (rather than fellow crew), that he says he had the equivalent of 6 units of vodka between 10:15 and 11:15am, with the flight due to take off (so when he was arrested) being 21:20 so he thought he should have been fine, after doing the maths (average person takes 1 hour to process 1 unit of alcohol) plus obeying the 8 hours bottle to throttle "rule".
He had been a BA pilot for 17 years.

[Flintstone]

I haven’t been persuaded by your reasoning, mainly because you are quoting examples of people that might well be described as alcoholics.

I'm glad you agree the people I describe are alcoholics, that's exactly my point!

Did this pilot fall into that category? I think that on the balance of probability he did not because the problem would have been picked up before then.

Why would it have been picked up before? When would it have been discovered? Ten years ago? Twenty? He may only recently have become an alcoholic (if indeed he is). He might have been that rare thing, a fuctioning alcoholic, who finally lost control.

Therefore, he was still able to make a rational decision as we all do on a regular basis unless we deliberately decide to throw caution to the wind.

But as we don't know if/when he became alcoholic or, if he is, lost control of his drinking we can't say he was rational.

I totally agree alcoholism is a different matter altogether.

So you agree alcohol is a legitimate problem, don't know whether or not this man is alcoholic, but say he had a choice? C'monnnnnnnn.

No argument from me though on your last point. No doubt if it turns out that he is alcoholic you'll will join me in sympathising with him. On the other hand, if this turns out to be the result of 'just' too many drinks on a night out (or bored in his room) I'll offer no defence on his behalf.

[TopCat]

....after doing the maths (average person takes 1 hour to process 1 unit of alcohol)

Sadly, knowing the alcohol metabolism rate of the average person is irrelevant if you're not the average person.

This study concluded that

the average patient presenting to the emergency department will clear ethanol at about 20 mg/dL/h, a standard deviation of 6 mg/dL/h....

There's about a 15% chance that someone will be below 1 standard deviation less than the mean, for a normal distribution.

So if JM's alcohol metabolism rate happened to be 14 mg/dL/h instead of 20, that would be about 0.7 of a unit per hour instead of one.

So there's a 15% chance that the 6 units in three double vodkas would then take over 8.5 hours to eliminate, rather than the much more optimistic 6. And of course a 2% chance he could have been 2 standard deviations or more below the mean, in which case he could have taken over 15 hours to eliminate the same 6 units.

They don't sound like great odds to bet a career on.

I don't know if elimination rates of the mildly intoxicated are substantially different from the acutely intoxicated referenced in the study, but the statistical point still stands.

[Waveflyer]

Did this pilot fall into that category? I think that on the balance of probability he did not because the problem would have been picked up before then.

I totally agree alcoholism is a different matter altogether.

So you agree alcohol is a legitimate problem, don't know whether or not this man is alcoholic, but say he had a choice? C'monnnnnnnn.

No argument from me though on your last point. No doubt if it turns out that he is alcoholic you'll will join me in sympathising with him. On the other hand, if this turns out to be the result of 'just' too many drinks on a night out (or bored in his room) I'll offer no defence on his behalf.

Flint
C’monnnnnnnn. I clearly said that on the balance of probability he was not an alcoholic.
Sympathy, you must be joking. With all his privileges and responsibilities he should have faced his issues earlier.
Would I help him, in the right circumstances, without question.

[Chris10]

Not long back from work so unfortunately couldn't reply to Flintstone's questions earlier. Basically, I was saying that whilst I think that alcohlism could reasonably be considered a mental illness, the majority of the public may not necessarily see it that way, especially when something of the technical complexity of a modern jet aircraft is concerned. A lot of the public are not particularly empathetic regarding problems which they haven't experienced or witnessed.

[AFSAG]

He was found to be over the drink drive limit at 1030 and was therefore even more “in drink” when alcohol was smelt on his breath at 830ish
It is very difficult to count back but his blood and breath alcohol would both have been higher at 830 yet he didn’t appear drunk
That suggests tolerance which is in the overwhelming majority of cases a result of regular ingestion of alcohol
He lacked insight into the issue and his judgment was also impaired
He admits to drinking to aid sleep (not an issue in isolation) and admits to drinking during the day

So, we have tolerance to alcohol, lack of insight, poor judgment, drinking to get to sleep and daytime drinking

That combination suggests alcohol dependency not a bad person. They are different things and as much as we might like to label him as stupid or bad or foolish the truth is he is just like us but likely with a problem

Maybe the real issue was the newsagent didn’t have any mints left, to mask the smell, or he was running too late to buy any

(Just my thoughts from what’s in the newspapers-no special knowledge of the case)

[JAFO]

So, we have tolerance to alcohol, lack of insight, poor judgment, drinking to get to sleep and daytime drinking

That combination suggests alcohol dependency not a bad person. They are different things and as much as we might like to label him as stupid or bad or foolish the truth is he is just like us but likely with a problem

I agree, though, I too, have no particular knowledge of the case.

the equivalent of 6 units of vodka between 10:15 and 11:15am,

Perhaps I'm wrong but drinking vodka mid-morning looks like a drink problem to me, regardless of the hours you're working.

Whatever the truth is in this individual's case I don't see how a prison term helps him, his family, me, taxpayers or his passengers.

[Flintstone]

I clearly said that on the balance of probability he was not an alcoholic.

But we don't knowwwwwwwww .........






I think my missus has hijacked Waveflyer's account.

[Waveflyer]

Flint

If we don't know then we can only speculate on the balance of probability.

As you seem to be an expert on these things tell me this.

I'm only really familiar with the trucking trade. It's possible that a driver under the influence of alcohol could check into the yard unsupervised, go out and do his job come back and not be in the close proximity of other employees - on occasions.

Is it likely that a pilot with 17 years service with BA could be an alcoholic, get through all his sim checks, flight checks, briefing meetings, flights etc. etc. time and time again, all in the close proximity of a number of people who have a really vested interest in his condition and get away with it?

Would his general demeanour and reputation go unnoticed?

Is it prevalent in your trade?

I'm

[Barcli]

Flint



Is it likely that a pilot with 17 years service with BA could be an alcoholic, get through all his sim checks, flight checks, briefing meetings, flights etc. etc. time and time again, all in the close proximity of a number of people who have a really vested interest in his condition and get away with it?

Would his general demeanour and reputation go unnoticed?

Is it prevalent in your trade?

I'm

I think a probable answer is Yes and Yes
In a large company like BA, it could be perfectly possible for character / personality changes to go unnoticed. Such a large impersonal company where you could go months or even years without meeting the same colleague twice, let alone a manager knowing your name. Close proximity with the same colleagues who know you ? doubt it - pretty sure it would go unnoticed

[Flintstone]

Flint
If we don't know then we can only speculate on the balance of probability.

As you seem to be an expert on these things tell me this.

I'm only really familiar with the trucking trade. It's possible that a driver under the influence of alcohol could check into the yard unsupervised, go out and do his job come back and not be in the close proximity of other employees - on occasions.

Would his general demeanour and reputation go unnoticed?

Is it prevalent in your trade?

I'm

Barcli's answer is one response and, of course, correct. I worked in a company with 1200 pilots and might not have flown with the same person from one year to the next.

Is it likely that a pilot with 17 years service with BA could be an alcoholic, get through all his sim checks, flight checks, briefing meetings, flights etc. etc. time and time again, all in the close proximity of a number of people who have a really vested interest in his condition and get away with it?

Are you asking "If someone had been drinking for 17 years...?" or "If someone had been in a company for 17 years...?". There's a fine but important difference. Either way..... We. Don't. Know.

Is it prevalent in your trade?

I'm

For the record my answer is a profound 'No'. I see however that you're already shocked. At what?

I think I'm right in recalling that whenever there's an aircraft accident or incident you are (one of) the voice(s) of reason and not one to jump to conclusions. Why is this different?

[Waveflyer]

Is it likely that a pilot with 17 years service with BA could be an alcoholic, get through all his sim checks, flight checks, briefing meetings, flights etc. etc. time and time again, all in the close proximity of a number of people who have a really vested interest in his condition and get away with it?

Are you asking "If someone had been drinking for 17 years...?" or "If someone had been in a company for 17 years...?". There's a fine but important difference. Either way..... We. Don't. Know.

I will try and think of a way to reword my question so that it is easier for you to understand and perhaps in the meantime you could try and answer it.

I had hoped that the answer would be a resounding "No" but what would this old fool know about the current effects of alcohol. It's obviously changed in modern times.

[PeteSpencer]

Mods: This thread is going nowhere with a small number of posters trying to out-Jack Russell each other.

Are we continuing to learn something new from each post, or is it time to park the thread?

Peter

[Flintstone]

WF and I are having a decent conversation. We've met in real life which probably helps us to not make the usual internet mistake of assuming the worst in each other's posts. It's civil.

Others have the option of either contributing or ignoring the topic.




And I need a little more time to make WF see the light.