[GolfHotel]

a mid-air remains my greatest fear.

but not, statistically, your greatest risk. Yes, very sad.
We're privileged to fly and it carries some risk, which is ruthlessly analysed, but lets not forget that there is plenty of risk in everyday life that is routinely ignored.

Humans do seem good at recognizing risk at times. However we are not nearly as good at quantifying the risk or the steps taken to mitigate risk. We are also pretty good at failing to notice risk in situations we are familiar with.

[PaulB]

Doesn’t that add up to that we’re not very good at recognising risk or mitigating against it?

[GolfHotel]

Doesn’t that add up to that we’re not very good at recognising risk or mitigating against it?

It adds up to we are inconsistent and illogical. (edit to add) IMHO

[neilmurg]

It's estimated that this resulted in an additional 1600 fatalities over the next 12 months - half the number that died in the original attacks.

I did read somewhere that in what we call Gulf War 1, casualties in the US army were lower than the accidental deaths they would have expected in peace time...

[ozplane]

As it was yet another cracking day again today I took the opportunity to do my usual"bimble" triangle today round the familiar landmarks. I guess like many others it was "heads out" after the sad accident earlier this week. However I couldn't help noticing that the glare flying in to the sun, which is quite low this time of year, was literally dazzling and reduced visibility quite markedly. I live at the North end of "Mig Alley" between Luton and Stansted and watching aircraft heading home later in the afternoon, it was noticeable that a Vans with some very powerful strobes was by far and away the most visible of the the dozen or so aircraft I saw. Most of them were Vans of one sort or another. Was there a Vans fly-in on somewhere?

[flybymike]

Quite a few Ford Transits in our village this afternoon.......

[Paul_Sengupta]

a mid-air remains my greatest fear.

but not, statistically, your greatest risk.

Well...

There may be a difference between *the* and *your*. As I understand it, per aircraft involved (rather than per incident) the list generally goes like this, from most likely to kill you:

1) Weather. CFIT or loss of control.
2) "Low level manoeuvring" - low level aeros and the like
3) Stall-spin, mainly these days on climb out, and mainly in a sub-600kg aircraft, and mainly after an engine failure
4) Mid air collision.

You could say that 1) This person only flies in nice weather, 2) This person doesn't do that sort of thing, 3) This person flies a heavier, certified, well maintained aircraft and keeps the speed up on climbout.

So...

It could well be *your* greatest risk.

mid-air collisions in GA present a very low, indeed vanishingly small risk

Depends how you measure it. We seem to be averaging one a year, with almost a definition of two aircraft involved (there is the possibility, if small, of more than two colliding). There are around 14 or so aircraft involved in fatal crashes per year in the UK, so that's about 1 in 7 of the aircraft involved in fatal accidents. Very rough figures of course.

This week's collision is very sad event, but not one that should cause knee-jerk reaction or any significant change of behaviour by the pilot population.

Well, the reaction could be to buy a PilotAware which would only be a good thing. But that's for the other thread.

[rats404]

To provide a bit of context to my earlier statement, Mid-air collision is the thing I fear the most, even though I'm aware that it is extremely unlikely. Using Paul's list...

1) Weather. CFIT or loss of control.
2) "Low level manoeuvring" - low level aeros and the like
3) Stall-spin, mainly these days on climb out, and mainly in a sub-600kg aircraft, and mainly after an engine failure
4) Mid air collision.

1. I took the time and trouble to get my IR/R (as it is now) to mitigate this risk. I also try to be very conscientious in my flight planning regarding weather and sensible MSA etc.
2. I just don't do this because it is stupid for a pilot who is not trained and authorised to do so.
3. I try very hard to regularly practice and ingrain the correct behaviours in such circumstances.
4. I also try to maintain good discipline regarding my scan and use a PCAS. But a class B Airprox I had two years ago illustrated to me that sometimes there are things outside your control that can contribute to a mid air. In this specific instance, the other pilot didn't see me at all (they were looking at a third aircraft further away) and I didn't see them until very late because they were in a blind spot and my PCAS didn't pick them up because the instructor flying aircraft B had not bothered to switch his transponder on. This was shortly after a fatal mid air less than 10nm from the incident location.

I do understand and get the point. On a statistical level, it shouldn't be my biggest fear, but on a visceral level, it feels like the risk that I have least control over.

Good thread this, albeit prompted by a tragic accident.

[johnm]

because the instructor flying aircraft B had not bothered to switch his transponder on.

For my money that should have been the end of his instructing career.

[mmcp42]

...because the instructor flying aircraft B had not bothered to switch his transponder on...

should we not be raising MOR if we know this sort of thing to be happening?
especially by an instructor

[rats404]

@mmcp42 Well, I only became aware of that many months later when the airprox report was published...

[mmcp42]

@mmcp42 Well, I only became aware of that many months later when the airprox report was published...

not complaining that you didn't, just saying in general

even so, I do hope instructor got a bollocking!

[rats404]

Well, considering he assessed the risk of collision as "low" even though he was completely unaware I was there when the incident happened, I doubt that he'd be showing the report to his CFI...

[FlarePath]

because the instructor flying aircraft B had not bothered to switch his transponder on.

I had a Cat "A" airpox in the same area with an RAF Vigilant. the Instructor was still on the circuit squawk 7010 and stayed on the Halton freq not talking to anyone and managed to report his position 20 nm off the actual location on his filed paperwork

[CloudHound]

Risk of collision has to include location, airspace and traffic density.

Stating the obvious maybe but a midweek flight over central Wales above 3500' in gin clear weather versus flying over Ware in Hertfordshire at any time, at any (allowable) altitude down to 1800m vis have to be flown differently.

In the former, I'll let my PAW take the lead with situational awareness through my ears and eyes providing the third pillar.

However, in the latter it'll be eyes out on stalks swivelling across a scan pattern; lifting a wing and leaning forward to alter my viewpoint around struts etc; situational awareness through my ears and PAW as an important, integral part of defences.

My point is not to assume any part of one's airmanship has to always come first.